[Fri]: China has a serious need for pork imports so any progress on trade talks with China is seen as a positive, according to The Hightower Report… [Thurs]: National carcass base was $1.28 lower… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was down $1.16… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell 90 cents… “While U.S. cash fundamentals continue to slide, the China pork situation continues to worsen and monthly Chinese pork imports for the month of July were the highest since late 2011,” Stewart-Peterson said… “With surging pig prices in China, they have a serious need for pork imports,” the Hightower Report said. “However, cash and pork product prices remain in a steady downtrend and this may have pulled the market off of the highs. Pork cut-out values at mid-session came in at $71.38, down $1.48 on the day”… 

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Fri 9/6/2019 9:10 AM

 

Lean hogs - Smithfield cut hog kill numbers in half at two of their plants in the Southeast, thanks to the influence of hurricane Dorian, which led to the closure of those plants for the day today, according to Allendale.

 

China has a serious need for pork imports so any progress on trade talks with China is seen as a positive, according to The Hightower Report.

 

Livestock Market Struggles

 

The cattle market was sharply lower yesterday and hog prices seem split between domestic weakness and the clear need for pigs in China, according to The Hightower Report.

 

U.S. and Chinese envoys will meet in October, according to government sources.

 

Thu 9/5/2019 4:41 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base was $1.28 lower to $53.42/cwt.

National live fell $1.19 to $43.39

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was down $1.16 to $53.89

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell 90 cents to $71.96/cwt.

 

“While U.S. cash fundamentals continue to slide, the China pork situation continues to worsen and monthly Chinese pork imports for the month of July were the highest since late 2011,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Some lower-level meetings between the U.S. and China trade officials are scheduled for the middle of this month with higher-level talks beginning in early October.”

 

“With surging pig prices in China, they have a serious need for pork imports,” the Hightower Report said. “However, cash and pork product prices remain in a steady downtrend and this may have pulled the market off of the highs. Pork cut-out values at mid-session came in at $71.38, down $1.48 on the day.”

 

Cattle moves down with cash

 

Cattle markets were lower on Thursday due to the cash cattle trends and supply concerns. “The market closed sharply lower on the day with December cattle down into new contract lows,” the Hightower Report said. “Weakness in cash cattle this week and continued concerns for a short-term glut of supply continues to pressure the market.”

 

Hog markets saw some optimism from the upcoming resumption of trade talks with China. “The market closed higher but well off of the early highs,” the Hightower Report said. “The stock market rally today was based on expectations for a resumption of trade talks with China.”

 

Grain gets support from dollar

 

Grain markets saw support from a variety of factors on Thursday. “The lower U.S. dollar is supportive today, along with reports that lower level trade talks between China and the U.S. have begun as well as an announcement that high level talks are scheduled for some time in early October,” Stewart-Peterson said.

 

“Weather forecasts are a pressure point, with two-week outlooks showing above-normal temperatures,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Corn futures are still oversold after making new contract lows yesterday. While the small bounce today is nice to see, there is no signal yet that a low is in or that speculative funds will begin to cover their shorts.”

 

Corn

 

Grain markets saw support from a variety of factors on Thursday. “The lower U.S. dollar is supportive today, along with reports that lower level trade talks between China and the U.S. have begun as well as an announcement that high level talks are scheduled for some time in early October,” Stewart-Peterson said.

 

“Weather forecasts are a pressure point, with two-week outlooks showing above-normal temperatures,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Corn futures are still oversold after making new contract lows yesterday. While the small bounce today is nice to see, there is no signal yet that a low is in or that speculative funds will begin to cover their shorts.”

 

Soybeans

 

Soybeans saw some negative technical developments today and were unable to sustain a rally. “The soy complex turned lower today with damaging chart action in soybeans,” ADM Investor Services said. “November soybeans traded up to key resistance near 879 and failed, pushing down to 864 ¼ at mid-day.”

 

Analysts continue to make yield estimates. “The weaker tone could also be tied to the robust yield estimate yesterday by FC Stone coming in at 48.3 bushels per acre with production at 13.809 bln bushels,” ADM Investor Services said. “Brokerage group Allendale Inc. survey has the US yield at 46.1 bushels per acre compared to the August USDA's 48.5 bushels per acre.”

 

Wheat

 

Wheat export data was coming on Friday. “Wheat futures are trading 5 to 9 cents higher in the nearby contracts on Thursday,” Barchart.com said. “USDA Export Sales data is pushed back to Friday morning, with traders estimating sales to be in a range of 400,000-800,000 MT in the week of Aug. 29.”

 

“The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates the global wheat crop at 767 mln tonnes, down 0.5% from the July estimate on lower Russian and EU production,” ADM Investor Services said. “They see world wheat use at a record 760 mln tonnes on higher livestock feed usage in both the US and the EU.”

 

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