In this file:
· Analyst to Livestock Producers: “Get Your Feed Locked In”
· Blood in the water again
· Argentine farmers favoring safe-bet soy over corn as policy outlook darkens
· Germany Will Ban Glyphosate After 2023 To Save Insects
· Column: U.S. corn exports likely fall short of 2018-19 target while soybeans exceed
Analyst to Livestock Producers: “Get Your Feed Locked In”
via Drovers - September 3, 2019
Clinton Griffiths, host of AgDay, talks with Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk and a Farm Journal economist about the livestock market. Should livestock producers act on these corn prices?
“Get your feed locked in because the risk I think on corn from this point forward, there’s more upside risk than there is downside potential for the guys that are buying feed,” said Flory. “[For the] soybean meal, [it’s the] same kind of story.”
Flory says Brazil is close to being out of soybeans right now. He says if China is going to import any soybeans between now and February, Flory believes the country will have to come to the U.S. to get it.
“Get your costs locked in and let’s go forward and make some money...
more, including video report [1:58 min.]
Blood in the water again
by Dan Hueber, AgWeb
Sep 04, 2019
Once they had detected fresh bovine blood in the water, the sharks began to circle and yet again commenced a feeding frenzy on the near defenseless bulls, particularly in the grain lagoon. Beans were initially victims in the attack, but mercifully they were thrown a life preserver from a cargo ship that just finished loading at the gulf, and they were pulled back to safety. Obviously, these predators have had their fill for the moment at least and have moved on in search of other hapless prey, and this morning at least, appear to have a taste for all things gold. As I commented yesterday, there is very little fresh news, let alone fresh, positive news for the grain/soy markets to focus on right now, and as such, the path of least resistance has been to the downside. There will undoubtedly be a limit to this, and it would appear that a few bargain hunters have stepped in overnight, but it is difficult to view the rebound as much more than a dead cat bounce at this point.
While I do think it is a moot point to focus on crop rating at this point, but corn in the good/excellent category improved 1% to 58% while beans remain unchanged at 55%. That said, I do not believe the trade is paying enough attention to the overall development. Corn dented stands at just 41%, which is 22% behind average. Illinois is 30% behind the normal pace, Indiana 37% behind, Michigan and North Dakota both 36% behind average with that final state registering just 8% dented. Unless we experience an unusually extended growing season, it is difficult to imagine fairly wide swaths in these states will reach full maturity. At first blush, the beans would not appear to be so far off the pace as the percentage setting pods is just 10% behind average at 86%. That said, I was surprised while traveling over the weekend to witness fields that have already begun to turn and having knowledge of when these were planted, am quite sure they will not be producing a yield that anyone would care to brag about.
Brazilian farmers are ready to head back out with planted once again and in light of all the news of deforestation that is occurring due to out of control fires in the Amazon, it is interesting to note that AgRural projects that the soy acreage will only increase 1.1% this year. Over the past decade, the average annual growth has been 5.2%, and this would mark the slowest expansion pace in 13-years. While this may partially reflect the difficultly of expanding into new regions but more likely is indicative throttling back due to the slacked demand from the African Swine Fever epidemic.
For now, there is little more to do in these markets...
Argentine farmers favoring safe-bet soy over corn as policy outlook darkens
via KTIC (NE) - September 4, 2019
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentine farmers, anxious about an increasingly murky political outlook and economic turmoil, are turning toward soy over more expensive corn to cut costs, a shift that could impact next season’s harvest in one of the world’s top grain exporters.
Farmers said a volatile economic situation in Argentina and the likelihood of a new administration at the end of the year, after President Mauricio Macri was hammered in primary elections, meant soybeans looked a less risky bet than corn.
Corn costs around $500 a hectare to produce, around 70% more than soy, local consultants say, because it requires more investment in fertilizers and new seeds each season.
Dino Garimanno, a farmer in the central Argentine town of Laboulaye, said he was considering replacing his corn with a cheaper option.
“It is a little scary to bury all those dollars in the ground,” he said.
The trend could weigh on Argentina’s 2019/20 corn harvest and bolster the output of soy, analysts said. The country – now at the start of the planting season – is the world’s top exporter of processed soy and the number three for corn exports, behind Brazil and the United States.
Fears over the future government’s policy direction have increased since business-friendly Macri was soundly beaten in the Aug. 11 primary by Peronist rival Alberto Fernandez, rocking markets. Fernandez is running on a ticket with populist ex-President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.
Fernandez de Kirchner is highly unpopular with the country’s farmers after bringing in export curbs and taxes on overseas farm sales during her 2007-2015 presidency. The general election is on Oct. 27.
“The (primary) result has generated uncertainty and producers will be changing portfolios to incorporate more lower cost crops,” Pablo Adreani, Buenos Aires-based head of AgriPac consultancy, said in an interview.
Gustavo López, director of consultancy Agritrend, estimated farmers would likely cut the area intended for corn this season by 200,000 hectares, to 6 million hectares. Soybeans would take that area to reach 17.7 million hectares.
INVESTMENT CUT ...
Germany Will Ban Glyphosate After 2023 To Save Insects
· Germany will begin to systematically reduce glyphosate use starting in 2020.
· The country will ban the herbicide after 2023 to give insects more access to food.
· Bayer’s legal challenges continue—next trial scheduled for Oct. 15.
by Sonja Begemann, AgWeb
Sep 4, 2019
Germany will ban the use of glyphosate herbicides at the end of 2023. The country is making the decision as part of an environmental protection program the government cabinet agreed to this week, according to Dow Jones.
Glyphosate, owned by German ag and pharmaceutical company Bayer, has come under fire in the U.S. over the past year with claims the pesticide causes cancer. Germany’s concerns, however, revolve around the pesticide’s impact on food sources for insects in the country.
Bayer provided the following statement to Agweb regarding the announcement in Germany:
Column: U.S. corn exports likely fall short of 2018-19 target while soybeans exceed
Karen Braun, Reuters
September 5, 2019
FORT COLLINS, Colo. (Reuters) - U.S. corn exports finished off the recently concluded U.S. marketing year at the slowest pace in seven years, while soybean exports hit a record high in the fourth quarter owing to anomalously large shipments to China.
Analysis of the latest data suggests that U.S. corn exports in 2018-19, which ended on Aug. 31, will fall short of the current full-year government forecast but soybeans likely topped its target.
The United States shipped 2.88 million tonnes (113 million bushels) of corn in July, according to data published on Wednesday by the U.S. Census Bureau. That was the lowest monthly total since November 2017 and the smallest July volume since 2013.
Weekly export inspection data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture implies August exports may have been up to 4% lighter than in July, which would also be the smallest for that month since 2013.
Using the assumptions about August, corn shipments in the fourth quarter of 2018-19 fell about 56% from a year ago and 34% from two years ago, which featured more modest exports between June and August.
But the world has not been missing out on corn. Combined August corn exports out of the United States and Brazil likely exceeded 10 million tonnes, which is record-high for any month.
Brazil, the No. 2 corn exporter, shipped an all-time monthly record of 7.65 million tonnes of the yellow grain in August. July’s volume of 6.3 million had briefly held that title.
A record-large harvest, competitive pricing against the U.S. product, and much-improved exporting logistics in recent years have allowed Brazil to supply such massive volumes.
Argentina and Ukraine have also shipped record volumes this year, denting U.S. business as domestic prices soared during the excessively wet planting season. Logistical problems stemming from the weather also plagued U.S. grain shipments earlier this year.
USDA pegs 2018-19 U.S. corn exports at 2.1 billion bushels (53.3 million tonnes), but the data suggests the reality may have been closer to 2.06 billion. That would be down 15% from the previous year.
This is not a huge discrepancy as the 40 million-bushel difference is only 2% of the predicted year-end supply of 2.36 billion, but the prognosis is not great. U.S. corn sales for the new marketing year were at 14-year lows as of mid-August, meaning there is a lot of ground to cover if exports are to reach USDA’s projection of 2.05 billion bushels.
SOYBEANS AND CHINA ...
PORK AND CHINA
China’s problem with African swine fever and its greatly reduced hog herd may be bad news for exporters of soybeans and feed grains, but it spells opportunity for meat suppliers around the world, including U.S. pork producers.
The United States exported 60,732 tonnes of pork to China in July, an all-time high for any month and significantly more than the previous record of 53,145 tonnes set back in November 2011. The January through July total of 237,793 tonnes is also a record for the period, topping the 2016 volume by 5%...
more, including corn, soy, pork export charts