[Thurs]: Any progress on trade talks with China should be seen as a supportive development. There is close-in support for December hogs is at $63.52 with resistance at $66.87 and $69.37, according to The Hightower Report… [Weds]: National carcass base fell 63 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base dropped 90 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $1.74… “Pork export sales for the month of July reached 542.15 mln pounds, which is just shy of the record high from April of 2018 of 547,931 pounds and up 26.6% from last year,” the Hightower Report said. “China imported 107.9 mln pounds, which is the highest monthly total since late 2011 and the third highest on record”…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Thu 9/5/2019 9:00 AM
Lean hogs - Any progress on trade talks with China should be seen as a supportive development. There is close-in support for December hogs is at $63.52 with resistance at $66.87 and $69.37, according to The Hightower Report.
A three-day holiday means a dip in pork slaughter this week, but there are still questions about how Hurricane Dorian will impact slaughter at the end of the week, according to Allendale.
Livestock Market Struggles
The beef market is trading above last year and the previous year but cash markets continue to struggle and futures remain in a consolidation phase, according to The Hightower Report.
The Tyson beef plant in Kansas will likely be back online by January, according to Allendale.
Wed 9/4/2019 5:17 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base fell 63 cents to $54.63
National live gained 39 cents and sits at $44.81
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base dropped 90 cents to $54.95
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $1.74 to $72.86
“Pork export sales for the month of July reached 542.15 mln pounds, which is just shy of the record high from April of 2018 of 547,931 pounds and up 26.6% from last year,” the Hightower Report said. “China imported 107.9 mln pounds, which is the highest monthly total since late 2011 and the third highest on record.”
China’s spot pig prices are running much higher this year. “The CME lean hog index was down 1.48 to 67.97, its lowest value since March 27,” Stewart-Peterson said. “China spot pig prices were down slightly overnight but are up over 104% year to date.”
Cattle quiet, hogs steady after limit-up day
Cattle markets were mostly quiet Wednesday, although analysts see signs of possible increasing demand. “The market closed slightly lower on the session with a quiet trade and an inside trading session,” the Hightower Report said. “A sharp break in the US dollar and a run-up in the stock market might be seen as positive demand factors.”
Hog markets saw some sources of pressure. “October hogs closed higher on the day, with other contract months lower but well up from the lows,” the Hightower Report said. “The market traded moderately lower on the session in spite of supportive export news and high prices in China. The sharp break in the cash market has helped to pressure.”
Corn lacking positive news
Corn markets were lacking positive news and other factors. “Prices fell on a lack of positive news, a private forecast increasing yield to 167 bushels per acre and no threatening weather in the forecast,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Most importantly, managed money continues to add to short positions. Yesterday it was estimated they were short 107,000 contracts.”
Analysts see the soybean market as being at a crossroads. “Near term weather is mostly benign; however, a rain shower would be welcomed by farmers in parts of the Midwest,” Stewart-Peterson said. “An export sale of beans to Mexico for just under 17 million bushels was viewed as supportive as well. The bean market is at an important crossroads.”
Corn continued to move lower on Wednesday. “Corn traded lower today as it continues to set fresh contract lows,” Michaela White, with CHS Hedging, said. “Corn disregarded the strength in wheat as the trade looked at improving crop conditions from yesterday, and little threat of frost in the extended forecast.”
Analysts continued to speculate and project about the yield and size of this year’s corn crop as harvest draws closer. "A private analyst estimates the U.S. corn crop yield at 167.71 bushels per acre using a survey that includes producers in 29 states,” White said.
“Soybeans traded higher today, and the November contract closed above the 20-day moving average for the first time in a month,” Michaela White, with CHS Hedging, said. “Meal was stronger today, with the December contract closing at $298.50 up $4.50 per ton whereas oil was down 0.10 at 28.99 per pound.”
“USDA reported a private export sale of 451,766 MT of 19/20 soybeans to Mexico this morning,” Barchart.com said. “July trade data from indicates a record number of soybeans shipped during the month at 3.68 MMT. That was 7.45% larger than last year and the largest tonnage since March. Of that total, 1.94 MMT was shipped to China, a monthly record.”
Wheat markets moved back higher on Wednesday, likely a technical development after a big sell off. “Wheat bounced higher today after setting fresh lows yesterday,” Michaela White, with CHS Hedging, said. “The strength in wheat is most likely technical, as it pauses after a major sell off.”
Recent wheat exports were up from the same month the year before. “Monthly trade data from Census showed U.S. wheat exporters shipping a total of 1.94 MMT during July,” Barchart.com said. “That was down 10% from June but a jump of 9.29% from last year.”