[Thurs]: Traders see a hefty supply of market cattle ready and fears of a back-up of cattle in the country are keeping the market bearish, according to The Hightower Report… [Weds]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were steady… Choice was down 1 cent… Select fell $2.67… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 570 head sold live for $103, and 4,281 head sold dressed for $165-170. In Iowa-Minnesota, there were 380 head sold live for $102-103, and 1,476 head sold dressed for $167-168… “Traders see a hefty supply of market ready cattle and fears of a back-up of cattle in the country as bearish supply forces,” the Hightower Report said…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Thu 9/5/2019 9:00 AM
Cattle - Chinese health inspectors will be visiting four Brazilian beef plants tomorrow to potentially approve those plants for export to mainland China, according to Allendale. Brazil is the world’s number two beef exporter.
Traders see a hefty supply of market cattle ready and fears of a back-up of cattle in the country are keeping the market bearish, according to The Hightower Report.
Livestock Market Struggles
The beef market is trading above last year and the previous year but cash markets continue to struggle and futures remain in a consolidation phase, according to The Hightower Report.
The Tyson beef plant in Kansas will likely be back online by January, according to Allendale.
Wed 9/4/2019 5:17 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were steady on Choice and sharply lower on Select on light demand and light offerings, the USDA said.
Choice was down 1 cent to $230.65/cwt.
Select fell $2.67 to $208.95.
In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 570 head sold live for $103, and 4,281 head sold dressed for $165-170. In Iowa-Minnesota, there were 380 head sold live for $102-103, and 1,476 head sold dressed for $167-168.
“A total of 335 head of cattle were sold on today's online fed cattle exchange at a weighted average price of 103. This is about steady with late cash trade last week,” Stewart-Peterson said. “A few bids in Nebraska were seen today at 107. The higher stock market and lower dollar were seen as supportive demand factors.”
The break in the U.S. dollar and an increase in the stock market are seen as positive demand factors, although there are some bearish concerns as well, including supply. “Traders see a hefty supply of market ready cattle and fears of a back-up of cattle in the country as bearish supply forces,” the Hightower Report said.
Cattle quiet, hogs steady after limit-up day
Cattle markets were mostly quiet Wednesday, although analysts see signs of possible increasing demand. “The market closed slightly lower on the session with a quiet trade and an inside trading session,” the Hightower Report said. “A sharp break in the US dollar and a run-up in the stock market might be seen as positive demand factors.”
Hog markets saw some sources of pressure. “October hogs closed higher on the day, with other contract months lower but well up from the lows,” the Hightower Report said. “The market traded moderately lower on the session in spite of supportive export news and high prices in China. The sharp break in the cash market has helped to pressure.”
Corn lacking positive news
Corn markets were lacking positive news and other factors. “Prices fell on a lack of positive news, a private forecast increasing yield to 167 bushels per acre and no threatening weather in the forecast,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Most importantly, managed money continues to add to short positions. Yesterday it was estimated they were short 107,000 contracts.”
Analysts see the soybean market as being at a crossroads. “Near term weather is mostly benign; however, a rain shower would be welcomed by farmers in parts of the Midwest,” Stewart-Peterson said. “An export sale of beans to Mexico for just under 17 million bushels was viewed as supportive as well. The bean market is at an important crossroads.”
Corn continued to move lower on Wednesday. “Corn traded lower today as it continues to set fresh contract lows,” Michaela White, with CHS Hedging, said. “Corn disregarded the strength in wheat as the trade looked at improving crop conditions from yesterday, and little threat of frost in the extended forecast.”
Analysts continued to speculate and project about the yield and size of this year’s corn crop as harvest draws closer. "A private analyst estimates the U.S. corn crop yield at 167.71 bushels per acre using a survey that includes producers in 29 states,” White said.
“Soybeans traded higher today, and the November contract closed above the 20-day moving average for the first time in a month,” Michaela White, with CHS Hedging, said. “Meal was stronger today, with the December contract closing at $298.50 up $4.50 per ton whereas oil was down 0.10 at 28.99 per pound.”
“USDA reported a private export sale of 451,766 MT of 19/20 soybeans to Mexico this morning,” Barchart.com said. “July trade data from indicates a record number of soybeans shipped during the month at 3.68 MMT. That was 7.45% larger than last year and the largest tonnage since March. Of that total, 1.94 MMT was shipped to China, a monthly record.”
Wheat markets moved back higher on Wednesday, likely a technical development after a big sell off. “Wheat bounced higher today after setting fresh lows yesterday,” Michaela White, with CHS Hedging, said. “The strength in wheat is most likely technical, as it pauses after a major sell off.”
Recent wheat exports were up from the same month the year before. “Monthly trade data from Census showed U.S. wheat exporters shipping a total of 1.94 MMT during July,” Barchart.com said. “That was down 10% from June but a jump of 9.29% from last year.”