In this file:

 

… “big money” … began posturing for higher prices…

 

… Pork demand is expected to improve as consumers turn to pork as beef and poultry prices climb…

 

… Wholesale pork prices, a major indicator for inflation, rose 2.1%, though prices were still 5.1% lower than in the same period a year earlier…

 

… Packers may raise cash hog bids this week as their margins and wholesale pork demand show seasonal improvements, one trader said…

 

… Yesterday, wholesale pork fell the most in more than a week, and meatpackers processed 431,000 hogs, up 17 percent from a year earlier…

 

 

Are lean hogs ready to go “hog wild?”

Market Pulse: January 14

 

By Gary Kamen - Futures Magazine

January 14, 2013

 

Last week February 2013 Lean Hogs opened at $86.150 and closed at $84.200. The ride up started back in September 2012.

 

On the daily chart we see ADX at 18.2 reflecting a weak trend, but ADX numbers are rising. DI Differential is well below 5.00. MACD is bearish crossing down below the zero on the histogram and adding divergence from below the signal line and Stochastics are in deep oversold territory, so technically watch for a correction up. For bear price action we will need to see a break below $84 and a retest of $83.

 

On the weekly chart we see ADX dropping to 44 telling us that the previous very strong uptrend has weakened, but this is still a strong trending market. The strong uptrend started mid-September as the price action rose above $75.000.

 

COT Data

 

You can see how “big money” on the Disaggregated COT report began posturing for higher prices in hogs when Producers started adding to net shorts and Managed Money started adding to net longs. We even saw Swap Dealer add to net longs in December. As of Friday, Producers were net short -103,999 contracts, Managed Money was net long 54,006 contracts, and Swap Dealers were net long 59,092...

 

Fundamentals

 

You can see from the chart below the pork production estimates for 2013 by country. These look to be the top ten countries for 2013. The past WASDE report released on Friday had this to say in the last line on lean hogs, “Hog prices are forecast lower based on larger expected supplies.” Make sure you keep an eye on “big money” to see their take on this, it might be different...

 

article, plus charts, table

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/01/14/are-lean-hogs-ready-to-go-hog-wild

 

 

Hog futures contracts close higher

 

By Jerry Passer - Brownfield

January 14, 2013

 

The main item of business in cattle country on Monday was the distribution of the new showlists...

 

Lean hogs settled unchanged to 102 points higher as moderate buyer interest redeveloped through the lean hog market as traders focused on the potential stability of both commercial and investment buyers after the crop report last week. Pork demand is expected to improve as consumers turn to pork as beef and poultry prices climb. February settled 1.02 higher at 85.22, and April was up .72 at 87.85.

 

There was slow market activity with light demand in the hogs on Monday. Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade closed 1.69 higher at 84.13 on a carcass basis, the West was up 1.39 at 83.69, and the East was down .59 at 79.14. Missouri direct base carcass meat price was 1.00 higher from 75.00 to 77.00. Terminal hogs on a live basis closed .50 higher to 1.00 lower from 52.00 to 56.00.

 

Pork trading was very slow, with very light demand and light to moderate offerings. Pork carcass cutout value was down .48 at 93.42.

 

The projections for 2013 pork exports was raised slightly, op 0.7% from, the previous month’s estimate due to increased availability on the larger production forecast...

 

more

http://brownfieldagnews.com/2013/01/14/hog-futures-contracts-close-higher/

 

 

DJ China Food Prices Rose Last Week; Pork Leads Increases

 

By Chuin-Wei Yap - Dow Jones Commodities News Select via Comtex

on TradingCharts.com - Jan 15, 2013

 

BEIJING--Food prices in China rose in the week to Sunday, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement issued late Monday.

 

China's food-price movements indicate inflationary pressures as food accounts for about a third of its consumer price index.

 

Wholesale pork prices, a major indicator for inflation, rose 2.1%, though prices were still 5.1% lower than in the same period a year earlier, the ministry said.

 

Wholesale vegetable prices rose 1.2%, continuing a 10-week trend as supply tightened amid winter.

 

Beef and mutton prices rose 0.5% respectively, it said. Edible oil prices rose about 0.2%, it said.

 

Egg prices rose 0.4% from a week ago, posting an eighth straight week of increases.

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-15-13 0435ET

 

source url

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/news/futures/DJ_China_Food_Prices_Rose_Last_Week__Pork_Leads_Increases_191480987.html

 

 

U.S. hog futures climb as cash expected to rise

Live cattle mixed on consolidation, fund roll

 

By: Theopolis Waters - Reuters

via Canadian Cattlemen - Jan 14, 2013

 

Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hog futures closed higher on Monday as traders anticipated a rebound in cash hog prices by covering short positions, traders and analysts said.

 

Spot February hogs settled 1.025 cents per pound higher at 85.225 cents. Most-actively traded April ended at 87.85 cents, up 0.725 cent (all figures US$).

 

Packers may raise cash hog bids this week as their margins and wholesale pork demand show seasonal improvements, one trader said.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday morning quoted the average hog price in the eastern Corn Belt down 69 cents per hundredweight (cwt) from Friday to $79.04. Prices elsewhere in the Midwest hog region were not available.

 

HedgersEdge.com put the average pork packer margin for Monday at a negative $1.30 per head, compared with a negative $5.40 on Friday and a negative $5.70 on Jan. 7.

 

Hog farmers appear to be current in sending their animals to market based on the decline in hog weights, making them less available to packers.

 

The government showed average hog weights nationally last week at 276 lbs., down one pound from the week before and three pounds lower than for the same period a year ago.

 

End of the roll

 

CME live cattle settled mixed on consolidation after Friday's market losses, analysts and traders said...

 

more

http://www.canadiancattlemen.ca/news/u-s-hog-futures-climb-as-cash-expected-to-rise/1001989279/

 

 

Hog Futures Decline on Signs Pork Supplies Outpace Demand

 

By Elizabeth Campbell on Bloomberg Businessweek

January 15, 2013

 

Hog futures declined on speculation that supplies of U.S. pork are outpacing demand. Cattle prices rose.

 

Yesterday, wholesale pork fell the most in more than a week, and meatpackers processed 431,000 hogs, up 17 percent from a year earlier, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed. On Jan. 11, the agency said that pork output will be 23.302 billion pounds (10.6 million metric tons) this year, up 2.2 percent from a December estimate.

 

“We’re seeing supplies still a little burdensome,” Paul Beere, a grain and livestock adviser at Prime Agricultural Consultants in Brookfield, Wisconsin, said in a telephone interview. “If there’s still a big bulge in supply because of more production and higher weights, we’re going to see prices continue to push lower.”

 

Hog futures for April settlement fell 0.2 percent to 87.7 cents a pound at 9:51 a.m. on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

 

Wholesale pork declined 0.6 percent yesterday to 83.42 cents a pound, the biggest drop since Jan. 2.

 

Cattle futures for April delivery rose...

 

more

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-01-15/hog-futures-decline-on-signs-pork-supplies-outpace-demand