In this file:

 

         DJ MARKET TALK: Light Cattle Trade in Texas at $1.27, Up 1c 

         DJ MARKET TALK: Only a Few Cattle Sales in Nebraska Thursday

 

         Livestock Call By John Otte

Cattle futures await direction from cash fed cattle trade, technical reversal trips hog futures, hogs await USDA breeding herd estimates

 

         DJ MARKET TALK: Cash Hog Prices Seen Mostly Flat

         DJ MARKET TALK: Cash Hog Bids Flat-Up, but Buy Interest Varies

         DJ Estimated U.S. Pork Packer Margin Index - Dec 28

 

         DJ MARKET TALK: Grain, Soy Rose Overnight on Bargain-Hunting

 

 

 DJ MARKET TALK: Light Cattle Trade in Texas at $1.27, Up 1c

DJ/Agriculture.com - Dec 28, 2012

 

12:17 EST - Light cash-cattle trading is reported in Texas at $1.27/pound live, up 1c from the majority of sales there last week. Volume reported so far is just over 3K head. A few sales are also reported in Colorado at $1.275; no volume estimates are available yet. And in Nebraska, bids vary from $1.97-2.00 dressed, countered by asking prices from $2.03-2.05. Light sales occurred there Thursday at $1.27 live. Meanwhile, midday boxed-beef prices are mixed...

 

more

http://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire?page=story&id=7956536

 

 

DJ MARKET TALK: Only a Few Cattle Sales in Nebraska Thursday

DJ/Agriculture.com - Dec 28, 2012

 

9:21 EST - Only a smattering of cash-cattle sales occurred in Nebraska on Thursday, amounting to about 1,500 head at $1.27/pound live, the high end of last week's price range. The only bids seen so far in the south are at $1.24 in Kansas, while owners there and in Texas are asking $1.28-plus; sales there last week were at mostly $1.26. Trading may develop around midday, some analysts predict...

 

more

http://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire?page=story&id=7954293

 

 

Livestock Call By John Otte

Cattle futures await direction from cash fed cattle trade, technical reversal trips hog futures, hogs await USDA breeding herd estimates

 

John Otte - Farm Futures - December 28, 2012

 

Opens

Fed cattle, steady to lower

Feeder cattle, steady to higher

Lean hogs, steady to higher

 

Wall Street looks to open lower as traders fret over Washington inaction on the fiscal cliff.

 

Grains look generally higher in overnight trade. Overnight livestock volume was light, making trends difficult to establish. Fed cattle appeared weak. Feeders and hogs could find some traction. Fed cattle will likely take direction from this week's cash trade as it eventually develops today.

 

Cash fed cattle. USDA reported mostly inactive negotiated cash trade in all feeding regions on Thursday.

 

Initial cash cattle bids for the week emerged at $124 on a live basis in Kansas near midday Thursday. No other bids were reported throughout the rest of the Plains nor in the western Corn Belt.

 

Meanwhile, cattle owners in Kansas and Texas were asking from $129 to $130. Sales in the region last week were mainly at $126.

 

Packers will be buying for another short work week ahead but slaughter is expected to be up from this week, and tighter supplies projected for the first few months of 2013, along with premiums built into February and April futures over the December contract, may encourage packers to buy ahead if possible to carry larger inventories.

 

USDA estimated Thursday's cattle slaughter at 130,000. The 282,000 Christmas holiday shortened total thus far this week is down from 472,000 last week and down from 393,000 a year ago.

 

Thursday's boxed beef cutout values were steady to firm on moderate demand and offerings. Select and Choice rib and loin cuts were weak to lower, while chuck and round cuts firm to higher. Beef trimmings lower on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings. For the day, Choice was up 2 cents at $194.26. Select advanced 30 cents to $179.49. Load count totaled 217.

 

The latest HedgersEdge packer margin index was minus $57.55 per head compared with minus $50.85 the previous day. This is an estimate of packer returns on cattle slaughtered and processed expressed in the form of an index...

 

Bottom line. Cattle futures await direction from this week's cash fed cattle trade, which has yet to develop. Cattle traders will be watching today's USDA Hogs and Pigs Report for clues on how stiff competition for beef will be from hogs going into next year. Expected tightening supplies into early 2013 firmly underpin the market.

 

Cash hogs. Thursday's Midwest direct hogs sold flat to firm on buying interest for additional loads to arrive late this week and to add to inventories for next week. Slowed selling interest between the holidays, along with slick or snow-packed roads in some locations, limited the number of hogs being offered to processors. Plus producers are hoping demand for hogs will be stronger following the New Year's holiday Tuesday.

 

USDA's afternoon reports showed Thursday's weighted-average base prices in:

 

* Iowa-Minnesota gained 71 cents to average $81.27.

 

* Western Corn Belt gained 53 cents to average $81.06.

 

* Eastern Corn Belt hogs rose $1.83 to average $80.63.

 

Price changes are compared to USDA's afternoon report for Wednesday.

 

USDA estimated Thursday's hog slaughter at 429,000. The 992,000 Christmas holiday shortened total thus far this week is down from 1.634 million last week and down from 1.299 million a year ago. Projections for Saturday's slaughter remain 320,000 to 325,000 as many plants will work on the weekend to make up downtime from earlier in the week.

 

Weakness in all primals, except ribs, took Thursday's pork carcass value $1.14 lower to $81.56, the lowest in five days. Load count totaled 103.

 

Dow Jones estimated Thursday's packer margin at minus $4.00 per head, vs. plus 22 cents on Wednesday.

 

The CME two-day lean hog index for Wednesday was down a nickel at $82.19. That reversed two days of gains.

 

Hogs and Pigs Report preview. USDA will release its inventory estimates this afternoon. Analysts will be scrutinizing the numbers for any clues on whether hog producers are scaling back production cuts they indicated they would make at the height of the drought.

 

On average, analysts responding to a Dow Jones survey expect the report to show:

 

All hogs and pigs at 99.1% of the Dec.1, 2011 value with a range from98.7% to100.4%

 

Hogs kept for breeding at 99.3% of the Dec.1, 2011 value with a range from99.1% to 99.5%

 

Market hogs at 99.1% of the Dec.1, 2011 value with a range from 98.7% to100.5%

 

Given the lofty level of drought-induced feed costs, and magnitude of estimated losses due to those high prices, trade chatter suggests the expected herd reductions are modest. Lower feed costs plus June and July 2013 hog futures hovering near $100 are strong incentives to maintain production to cash in on the better prices ahead. If so, those better prices may weaken a bit as summer nears...

 

Bottom line. A technical reversal tripped Thursday's hog futures in light volume. The market hopes producers are following through with drought-induced production cuts. Evidence, or even hints, that they have scaled back those cuts in this afternoon's USDA report would be construed as negative...

 

more, including hog price chart

http://farmfutures.com/story-livestock-call-john-otte-22-33817

 

 

DJ MARKET TALK: Cash Hog Prices Seen Mostly Flat

DJ/Agriculture.com - Dec 28, 2012

 

8:18 EST - Cash hog bids are predicted to be mainly steady, or flat, today but a few firmer quotes are possible from processing plants that need additional supplies to complete their slaughter schedules for this week or add to inventories for next week. Although slaughters for this and next week are reduced from normal due to the holidays, some plants are snug on supplies, say livestock dealers. Producers are generally current, or up to date on shipments, and some may wait until next week before selling again on hopes that demand will be stronger then...

 

more

http://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire?page=story&id=7952998

 

 

DJ MARKET TALK: Cash Hog Bids Flat-Up, but Buy Interest Varies

DJ/Agriculture.com - Dec 28, 2012

 

12:15 EST - Cash hog bids are reported from flat to as much as $1 per hundredweight higher but buying interest varies among packers. Some plants needed more hogs to fill their weekend slaughter schedules and bid more aggressively early in the day to get the animals. Others with sufficient supplies for much of next week quoted mainly flat prices. Meanwhile, some producers are reluctant to sell now because they think prices may move up after New Year's when packers return to full-week work schedules...

 

more

http://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire?page=story&id=7956524

 

 

DJ Estimated U.S. Pork Packer Margin Index - Dec 28

DJ/Agriculture.com - Fri Dec 28, 6:00AM CST

 

This report reflects U.S. pork packer processing margins. The margin indices

are calculated using current cash hog or carcass values and wholesale pork

cutout values provided by USDA and may not reflect actual margins at the plants.

These estimates reflect the general health of the industry and are not meant to

be indicative of any particular company or plant.

Source: USDA, based on Dow Jones Newswires calculations

 

  All figures are on a per-head basis.

 

 

Date        Standard            Estimated margin

            Operating           at vertically

           Margin Index        integrated operations

                *                    *

Dec 27     $ -  4.00             $ - 16.21

 

more

http://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire?page=story&id=7951935

 

 

DJ MARKET TALK: Grain, Soy Rose Overnight on Bargain-Hunting

DJ/Agriculture.com - Dec 28, 2012

 

8:56 EST - US grain and soybean futures climbed overnight after Thursday's declines, with wheat leading the way amid strong weekly export sales after prices hit a 6-month low yesterday. Soybeans rose amid lingering concerns about tight supplies and corn drew support from wheat..

 

more

http://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire?page=story&id=7953680