Articles in this document:

· US beef exports are on the rise

· Canada Continues Pressing to Re-Open Korean Market to Canadian Beef Exporters

· US hopes to ‘beef up’ exports to Taiwan

· Duration Of Pullback In US Meat Exports To Russia Uncertain

· Brazil Oct Beef Exports Down 7.2% On Year –Estado

· A beef with Russians

· Will Beef Imports Increase as Projected?

US beef exports are on the rise

Queensland Country Life - Australia

11/11/2008 9:55:00 AM

In an ominous sign for the Australian beef industry, exports from the United States are on the rise.

It is due to a shift in US consumers, with greater demand for lower cost beef items, which has pushed the price of beef cattle down over the past several weeks.

According to World Agriculture Outlook Board chairman Gerry Bange, the positive for the US industry is that exports are improving.

The US has essentially been playing catch up as far as beef exports are concerned since December 2003 when many countries banned beef from the US after a case of BSE was detected.

"We are seeing somewhat of a recovery in the Korean market, things are moving along," Mr Bange says.

"We're also seeing somewhat of a recovery in the Japanese market."

Those two countries were major buyers of US beef prior to 2003, and the absence of US product has been a boon for Australian sales.

The deal to reopen the Korean market to US beef earlier this year was met with widespread protesting that temporarily stopped the deal from being implemented.

However, the furore has died down and just three short months later US beef accounts for nearly 50pc of the total value of Korean meat imports.

Mr Bange is forecasting that US beef exports in 2009 will top two billion pounds, which is up almost 10pc from this year.

However, the US still has a way to go to reach pre-BSE export levels.

"It's not a bad number compared to where we had been in the recent past," Mr Bange says.

"But it pales in comparison to the 2.5 billion pounds that we recorded back in 2003."

Source: FarmProgress

qcl.farmonline.com.au

Canada Continues Pressing to Re-Open Korean Market to Canadian Beef Exporters

Press Release Source: Canadian Food Inspection Agency

Monday November 10, 4:45 pm ET

OTTAWA, ONTARIO--(MARKET WIRE)--Nov 10, 2008 -- The Government of Canada is continuing to work hard to re-open the Korean market to our world-class Canadian beef. Based on science and international standards, the Canadian beef industry has a strong case and we are committed to regaining market access for Canadian exporters.

"The quality and safety of Canadian beef is recognized around the world," said Canada's Agriculture Minister, Gerry Ritz. "We are committed to providing our exporters with every possible opportunity and we are working to resume trade to Korea as soon as possible."

Canadian and Korean veterinary officials held technical negotiations November 3-4, 2008, aimed at moving toward an agreement on the import requirements for Canadian beef. Restoring market access will allow Korean consumers to access safe, high-quality Canadian beef and beef products at competitive prices.

Korean officials will be visiting Canada later this month to conduct on-site visits to Canadian beef slaughter facilities to see first hand the effectiveness of Canada's food safety and animal health safeguards.

Korea banned imports of Canadian beef in May 2003, after bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) was discovered in a Canadian cow. Prior to that point, Korea represented the fourth-largest market for Canadian beef, with $50 million in annual sales.

In May 2007, the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) officially categorized Canada as a Controlled Risk country for BSE, meaning the standards implemented in Canada meet the requirements for safe trade in a broad range of commodities.

Source: Canadian Food Inspection Agency

biz.yahoo.com

US hopes to ‘beef up’ exports to Taiwan

BEEF-EATING NATION: Figures compiled by the US Meat Export Federation show that Taiwan has historically been one of the top six importing nations of US beef

By Jenny W. Hsu

STAFF REPORTER

Taipei Times

Wednesday, Nov 12, 2008, Page 4

A complete opening of the Taiwan market to US beef is a priority issue for Washington in future bilateral talks as many trade-related issues are on hold, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) said yesterday, without giving a timeline for when a deal could be reached.

Department of North American Affairs Deputy Director-General Michael Hsu (徐佩勇) said the US was anxious to begin large-scale exports of its beef to Taiwan, but the Taiwanese government was holding off on a decision because of a lack of public consensus.

“The issue of US beef is of great importance to Taiwan. The Department of Health [DOH] sent experts to the US twice to inspect meat safety and both times reported they did not detect any problems,” Hsu said, but added that the government must continue to carefully consider the issue because of public hesitation.

American Institute in Taiwan Director Stephen Young at a press conference in April said that on beef and pork imports, the US would begin discussion with President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration to “apply the same scientific principles that have been embraced in international agreements and international organizations like the OIE [the World Animal Health Organization].”

The issue of US beef raised much ire in South Korea when imports were resumed there in April. More than 150,000 protestors battled riot police in tumultuous demonstrations with scores injured. Two months later, the South Korean Cabinet offered to resign en masse over the beef crisis.

Taiwan first banned US beef in 2003 when cattle in Seattle were diagnosed with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), commonly known as mad cow disease.

In April 2005, Taiwan lifted the ban to allow US boneless beef from cattle under 30 months old, but the ban was reinstated two months later when a second BSE case was confirmed in the US.

The DOH, without a green light from the legislature, lifted the ban in January the following year but had to reinstate the ban four months later when bone fragments were discovered in a beef shipment.

Taiwan has historically been one of the top six importers of US beef, according the US Meat Export Federation.

US pork also stirred major controversy in Taiwan last year, especially among hog farmers, when two US pork shipments were found to contain the feed additive ractopamine, which is legal in the US and other countries but outlawed in Taiwan.

Bureau of Food Sanitation Deputy Director Hsieh Ting-hung (謝定宏) refused to give an actual figure on the permissible ractopamine level in pork, saying only the additive must not be detected in meat in Taiwan.

Young is expected to speak on the meat import issue at a press conference this morning.

taipeitimes.com

Duration Of Pullback In US Meat Exports To Russia Uncertain

Editor: Sharon Li

Alibaba

12 Nov 2008 07:45:45 GMT

WASHINGTON --Analysts and industry officials are concerned over how long the drop-off in U.S. meat and poultry exports to Russia will last.

Toby Moore, a vice president for the U.S. Poultry and Egg Export Council, said he is hopeful the lull in U.S. sales to Russia will be short term, but it's impossible to make a precise prediction.

Russia was the rising star of import markets for U.S. beef, pork and poultry this summer until the dollar began appreciating against a weaker ruble, oil prices began dropping and the recent international credit crisis combined to put the brakes on record U.S. export levels.

Russia traditionally accounts for about 30% of U.S. poultry sold abroad.

By August, U.S. pork exports to Russia reached 96,085 metric tons - nearly double the yearly tariff-free quota of 49,800 tons allowed by Russia - according to data maintained by the National Pork Producers Council.

Analysts for Credit Suisse said Monday it is unclear how long the Russian market will remain sour for U.S. meat and poultry.

"Credit problems in the export market are likely to go away at some point, but it could be months, not weeks," the analysts said in a Monday report. "After that, the U.S. will continue to contend with the fact that the strengthening of the U.S. dollar has reduced its cost advantage in the global export markets."

July was the height of U.S. beef exports to Russia, according to the National Cattlemen's Beef Association, a U.S. rancher group. U.S. exporters sent 16.9 million pounds of beef and beef variety meat worth $17.6 million in that one month alone.

But that was when the U.S. dollar was more affordable for Russians. The U.S. dollar, which got about 23.40 rubles at the start of August, now gets over 27 rubles.

And now, NCBA Chief Economist Gregg Doud said, U.S. beef sales to Russia have virtually stopped while exporters from countries like Brazil are taking advantage of the currency situation.

Brett Stuart, a founding partner of the agriculture trade consulting firm Global AgriTrends, said, "It's ground to a halt. We were sending 2,000 tons of beef per week to Russia and it's almost zero now. We aren't sending hardly anything there."

Brazil, which has seen the real depreciate against the dollar in recent months, initially managed to displace some U.S. beef exports in July and August, according to statistics maintained by the National Cattlemen's Beef Association. But Russia's weakening economy and the global credit crunch has stopped even cheaper Brazilian beef

"Brazil suspended beef exports to Russia at one point because the risk of default got so high," Credit Suisse analysts said. "Russians have been asking for extended payment terms and renegotiated prices."

AgriTrends' Stuart said Australian exporters were hit hard by Russian demands to renegotiate beef prices.

Brazil has not only been trying to sell more beef to Russia, but also chicken, displacing U.S. product and that is seen to likely continue into next year.

The Credit Suisse analysts said Monday: "We think Brazil will take market share away from the U.S. in the important Russian chicken market in 2009."

The U.S. Poultry and Egg Export Council's Moore said it is common knowledge that Russia is now buying less U.S. chicken. How much less, though, is unknown because there is about a two-month lag in data collection.

The latest figures are for August and they show a robust trade, according to Moore. Russia bought $576 million worth of chicken in the first eight months of this year, versus $455 million in the same time period last year.

Russia traditionally accounts for about 30% of U.S. poultry exports, taking the cuts least favored on the U.S. domestic market. U.S. consumers prefer breast meat and the poultry sector depends on foreign markets such as Russia to take leg quarters.

U.S. pork exports to Russia have also been hurt in recent months by the dollar-ruble exchange rate as well as the growing lack of credit available to importers, said Nick Giordano, vice president and counsel on international trade policy for the National Pork Producers Council.

There is no official data available yet on the past couple months' sales, but "based on industry reports," the picture is of a slowdown in sales to Russia, Giordano said.

But, he said, he is optimistic that the drop isn't long term.

"I would characterize what's gone on in the past couple months in Russia as a bump in the road," Giordano said. "I think its going to continue to be an important market for pork exports in the future.... We expect another good year next year in Russia."

That's a possibility, said Mathew Shane, senior macro economist for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service, but U.S. product will have to be more affordable and Russia's economy will have to strengthen.

"All of a sudden two factors are both operating on Russia to look to cheaper sources because...of the weakness in their economy and the appreciation of the dollar," Shane said. "So both of those factors are probably going to lead Russia to try to reduce its dependence on the U.S. and buy its supplies from other countries."

-By Bill Tomson, Dow Jones Newswires

news.alibaba.com

Brazil Oct Beef Exports Down 7.2% On Year -Estado

Agriculture Online

10:47 AM, November 11, 2008

SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--The Brazilian Beef Exporters Association, Abiec, said

Brazil exported 124,500 metric tons of beef in October to world markets, down

7.2% compared with a year earlier, news service Estado reported Tuesday.

Abiec said exports fell 12.5% to 1.2 million tons of beef between January

and October, according to Estado.

However, Abiec said sales rose 26% to $4.6 billion between January and

October compared to the same period last year.

Brazil is the world's leading beef exporter.

-By Tony Danby, Dow Jones Newswires

agriculture.com

A beef with Russians

Kate Dowler

The Weekly Times - Australia

November 12, 2008

THE global financial crisis has taken its toll on Australian beef exports to Russia, with Russian importers struggling to make payments on time.

But the long-term outlook for the market - Australia's fourth largest - remains bullish, according to Russian National Meat Association chief executive Sergey Yushin.

Mr Yushin, who is visiting Australia this week, said Russia produced only 35 per cent of its beef and its cattle herd was on the decline due to difficulties sourcing finance.

The country remained reliant on beef imports, shipping in 700,000 tonnes this year and a forecast 750,000 tonnes next year.

South American countries remain the largest exporters to Russia, Mr Yushin said.

"Australia has dramatically increased its exports to Russia, largely because it has become more price competitive compared to Brazil," he said.

According to Meat and Livestock Australia, local beef exports to Russia have been the highest on record this year.

But they have fallen from the record 17,280 tonnes (shipped weight) in May to just 4456 tonnes in September.

Exports to Russia in the first nine months of this year totalled 65,861 tonnes, compared to 5063 tonnes for the whole of last year.

The most recent slump is due to negative seasonal factors, high stocks, declining seasonal demand and the credit crisis.

Mr Yushin said Australian beef still only accounted for 8 per cent of Russia's total beef imports and there was no reason Australia could not increase shipments, providing the price was right.

"Australia is a stable and reliable supplier, with no disease problems," he said.

But congestion on Russian ports could pose logistical problems (for meat shipped great distances)."

And the credit crisis meant some importers were having trouble making payments, he said.

A lack of trust throughout the supply chain was creating an unstable and unpredictable market.

It was therefore vital that Australian exporters and Russian importers found solutions, Mr Yushin said.

"The Russian Government is now trying to speed up payments throughout the supply chain - within two months we hope things will improve," he said.

Mr Yushin said Russia's economic growth was 7 per cent but could fall to 3 per cent in the coming year.

According to MLA, some importers have walked away from or sought to renegotiate contracts made under the higher Australian dollar for product in transit, and several have been unable to secure credit.

MLA said most Australian suppliers remain reluctant to negotiate price, but some exporters were starting to drop prices to big customers.

weeklytimesnow.com.au

Will Beef Imports Increase as Projected?

Nov 11, 2008 7:00 PM, Source: The Beef Site

BEEF Magazine

Numbers indicate upcoming beef trends in the global marketplace.

The latest USDA forecasts of US meat production and trade were recently released, and they contain some interesting points concerning the outlook for 2009.

First, beef and pork output is expected to decline from 2008 levels but the rate of decline is not as large as some may think and the volume expected to come to market is still expected to be notably higher than in 2004 or 2005. Despite the relatively large output levels (a result in part of the production capacity currently in place), USDA expects per capita consumption to decline further in the case of beef and, in the case of pork be only marginally higher than in 2008. More specifically, USDA expects US commercial beef production in 2009 to be 26.752 billion pounds, only about 50 million pounds or 0.2% lower than a year ago but around 2 billion pounds (+8%) larger than in 2005.

Despite the big growth in output in the past three years, US per capita beef consumption is forecast to continue to decline and is currently pegged at 62.4 pounds per person (retail wt. basis), 1% lower than the projected numbers for 2008 but 4.7% higher than in 2005. How is it that per capita consumption declines in the face of such big increases in output? Trade flows account for much of the change in beef product availability in the US domestic market and that remains the big question mark in the most recent USDA update. Will US beef imports increase just 150 million pounds (+6.2%) as currently projected? We suspect that number may be too low, especially given the surge in the US dollar and falling demand from countries such as Russia. Keep in mind that US beef imports in 2008 declined by about 600 million pounds due to minimal shipments from Uruguay and notably lower imports from Australia. The former will likely be back in force in the US market in 2009 and Australia now has very strong incentives to ship more beef to the US, especially following a 35% devaluation of its currency. As for exports, they are still expected to increase by 79 million pounds (+4.3%).

In the case of pork, much of the per capita consumption number also hinges on the expectation that while exports will decline from the all time record levels of 2008, they will still be at historically very high levels. The latest USDA forecast pegs US pork exports for 2009 at 4.5 billion pounds, 568 million pounds (-11.2%) lower than expected 2008 levels but still about 1.3 billion pounds larger than just two years ago. Pork output in 2009 is currently forecast at 23.094 billion pounds, 38 million pounds or 1.6% lower than a year ago but 2.4 billion pounds (+11.5%) higher than in 2005.

beefmagazine.com