Cold Cattle Weather to Be Followed by Above-Normal Temps

Price gains could be reversed quickly.


By Rich Nelson, Allendale Inc.

via Successful Farming/ - 12/29/2017


February futures gained $3.30 this week.


At the time of this writing, we are still waiting for cash cattle trading to develop. Bids have been moved up to $122 live and $193 dressed in eastern Nebraska. Last weeks average trade was $120 live and $193 dressed. We would guess $122 will be traded Friday afternoon. That would be considered a slight disappointment.


Extreme temperatures are in store for the entire Plains through the weekend. This will reverse some of those gains posted in previous weeks due to above-normal temperatures. While many in the trade may wonder if this means weight gains are set back for several weeks, many others would argue that prices could still fall next week.


Our friends in Hereford, Texas, are slated for highs of 27F. and lows of 9F. on Sunday. Lincoln, Nebraska, is set for -2F. for a high on Sunday and -20F. for a low. There are very valid concerns about this type of cold.


On the other hand, by next Sunday the 7, Hereford will see highs back to 58. Lincoln will be up to 30. That does not sound like much consolation, but the market will take it as better news. If this were combined with heavy precipitation, then we would have some big problems.


USDAs weekly slaughter estimate came to 502,000 head, near our 500,000 guess noted in the morning. That is 2.6% under last year. The previous six weeks were 4.5% higher than last year. Given the holiday week, we wont suggest this is the sign of any change...