In this file:
· USDA raises U.S. corn, wheat ending stocks estimates
· USDA Reports Shave Top off Corn Rallies
· World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (PDF link to full WASDE report)
· Bearish News from USDA in July Report
· Hail storm damages some of Minnesotan's corn and soybean crops
· Expanding Drought Reflected in SD Crop Ratings
USDA raises U.S. corn, wheat ending stocks estimates
By John Perkins, Brownfield
July 12, 2017
USDA tightened the old crop and new crop balance sheets for soybeans, while raising projections for corn and wheat...
2016/17 U.S. corn ending stocks came out at 2.370 billion bushels, compared to 2.295 billion a month ago and 1.737 billion a year ago. USDA The only change was a reduction in the feed and residual use guess. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $3.25 to $3.45 per bushel, unchanged from last month and down from the average of $3.61 last marketing year.
2017/18 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 2.325 billion bushels, compared to 2.110 billion in June. USDA raised expectations for beginning stocks, production, and feed and residual use. The average 2017/18 farm price is estimated at $2.90 to $3.70 per bushel, compared to $3.00 to $3.80 a month ago.
2016/17 U.S. soybean ending stocks are expected to be 410 million bushels, compared to 450 million last month and 197 million last marketing year. USDA raised crush and export projections. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $9.50 a bushel, compared to $9.55 in June and $8.95 for 2015/16.
2017/18 U.S. soybean ending stocks...
USDA Reports Shave Top off Corn Rallies
By Sara Schafer, Top Producer
via FarmJournal's PorkNetwork - July 12, 2017
In its July 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA pegs the 2017/18 corn production at 14,255 million bushels. This is based on increased planted and harvested areas from the June 30 Acreage report, the agency reports. The national average corn yield is unchanged at 170.7 bu. per acre.
Due to the large carryout, USDA lowered the season-average corn price 10 cents at the midpoint for a range of $2.90 to $3.70 per bushel.
“The report delivered a negative blow for corn, since they increased carryover,” says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group. “They didn’t do anything with the yield, and that leaves room to reduce the yield and still not have a problem with carryover.”
If USDA drops the national average corn yield by even just 2 bushels, Gulke says, that will wipe away the increase in corn stocks the agency forecasted today.
“We need a crop problem to continue corn market higher in the short-run,” he says.
Conversely, soybean demand seems to be strong, Gulke notes.
“Soybeans have been the wonder for the last three or four years,” he says. “The market consistently underestimates demand.”
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World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
World Agricultural Outlook Board WAOB
This monthly report provides the current USDA forecasts of U.S. and world supply-use balances of major grains, soybeans and products, and cotton; and U.S. supply and use of sugar and livestock products.
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 07.12.2017 [pdf]:
Bearish News from USDA in July Report
By Emery Kleven, Hoosier Ag Today
Jul 13, 2017
USDA released the July crop production and supply and demand reports Wednesday, and yes, there was some market reaction after the bearish report. The average trade estimate for 2016/17 corn ending stocks was 2.303 billion bushels while the actual number was 2.37 billion. For the 2017/18 marketing year, the average trade guess was 2.113 billion bushels and the actual number was 2.325 billion.
Soybean numbers were called neutral to slightly bullish. Soybean ending stocks were expected to decline form USDA’s previous estimate. Guesses for 2016/17 averaged out at 428 million bushels while the actual number was 410 million. For 2017/18, the average trade guess waas 490 million bushels. USDA’s number Wednesday was 460 million bushels.
Wheat ending stocks were expected to decline from 924 to 867 million bushels but USDA actually increased the number to 938 million.
Don Roose, President of U.S. Commodities, thought the world ending stocks were the key numbers in the supply and demand report. “The world ending stocks on corn went up 6.5 million metric tons, course grains in general went up almost 7 million metric tons. The world ending stocks on soybeans went up 1.3 million metric tons.”
USDA put the spring wheat crop at 423 million bushels. Roose said, “All focus was on spring wheat as that is where the bull market started. That 423 million number was on the top end of the range and and it feels like the market has maybe put it’s rationing top in for the spring wheat.”
USDA increased the carryout for the nation’s winter wheat crop by 14 million bushels when the trade expected a decrease of about 55 million bushels...
Hail storm damages some of Minnesotan's corn and soybean crops
By Dale Hildebrant, Lee Agri-Media
via Ag Update - Jul 12, 2017
MENTOR, Minn. — John Swanson had been getting some timely rains on his farm near Mentor, Minnesota, but Wednesday, June 21, a hail storm moved across part of his land and did some significant damage to a corn and soybean field, both of which were on some of his irrigated land.
“It was just a little strip of hail that didn’t cover a very large area, but it really did a good job on the crops,” John said. “The insurance adjusters were out today and looked at it. There were spots where we were counting 50 percent of the soybean plants that were broken off.
“The soybeans were about 6 inches tall and the first flowers were just starting to come out before the hail hit.”
The corn didn’t fare much better-the plants were approximately knee high before the hail hit. But after the hail storm some of the plants were completely broke off, while on others the leaves were shredded.
“It must have been some fairly large hail stones and high winds with it to shred the leaves so completely,” he noted. “The corn was in the V-8 stage when the hail hit and there is virtually no leaves left in many cases. The growing point was broken off and the stalk that was left standing-so there will be some loss.”
Those fields not hit by hail are looking good, especially the wheat. John has had a couple half-inch rains since our last visit and a few other shots of rain of a tenth to two-tenths of an inch…
Expanding Drought Reflected in SD Crop Ratings
Radio 570 WNAX (SD)
Jul 13, 2017
The hot dry weather in the western corn belt continues to take its toll on row crops and that was reflected in this week’s crop ratings in South Dakota. Only 37-percent of the corn crop was rated good to excellent, a drop of 5-percent from last week. Monsanto Agronomist Keith Mockler says the corn rating is accurate based on his field assessments.
He says corn development is slightly behind normal, but that may be a good thing because otherwise the heat stress would hit during the prime pollination phase and cut yield.
South Dakota’s soybean ratings also dropped 3-percent with only 34-percent of the crop rated in good to excellent condition. However, Mockler says he’s not concerned about the beans because yield is set in August...
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