In this file:
· Jerry Gulke: USDA Reports Create More Questions than Answers
· USDA’s August WASDE report hits commodity markets hard
· Grains Crash as Corn Has Bumper Crop at a Bad Time
· USDA: Crop Production [PDF link]
· USDA: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates [PDF link]
· USDA crop production outlook shocks producers
· Bearish report swamps corn futures
· Crop Progress Report Shows Stagnant Corn, Soybean Conditions
Jerry Gulke: USDA Reports Create More Questions than Answers
by Sara Schafer, AgWeb
Aug 12, 2019
Ahead of the Aug. 12 USDA reports, traders and farmers expected this round of information to provide clarity to the unprecedented 2019 corn and soybean crops. Yet, this year’s August reports, which included more information than ever before, mostly created more questions.
USDA pegs corn production for grain at 13.9 billion bushels. That’s based on a national average corn yield of 169.5 bushels per acre, 82.0 million harvested acres and 90 million planted acres.
Soybean production is forecast at 3.68 billion bushels. That’s based on a national average soybean yield of 48.5 bushels per acre, 75.9 million harvested acres and 76.7 million planted acres.
Traders prior to the report were predicting smaller yields, planted and harvested acres for corn. For soybeans, traders expected smaller yields and larger planted and harvested acres.
Following the release of the reports, corn prices sank by about 25¢ and soybean prices by 11¢. The price reaction was due to several surprises in the report, says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group.
A big factor in today’s report, Gulke explains, is the addition of the prevent plant (pp) numbers from USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA). As of now, the total prevent plant acres for 2019 sits at 19 million acres. Of that, 11.2 million are for corn and 4.3 million are for soybeans. This marks the most pp acres reported since FSA began releasing the report in 2007 and 17.49 million acres more than reported at this time last year.
“They said that it may take until October before they have all the reports in, which is ludicrous to me in this in this electronic day and age,” Gulke says. “But they have said there's something like 11.2 million acres of pp in that 90 million acres number. That would imply, ‘Holy cow, you were going to plant 101 million acres of corn?’ But that's not necessarily the case.”
Prevent plant decisions were based on which crops provide the most money, Gulke notes. Since FSA is still compiling data, the total pp acres are still uncertain.
“So, in a report that was supposed to answer all the questions, it gave us a lot more questions than answers,” he says...
more, including audio [6:04 min.]
USDA’s August WASDE report hits commodity markets hard
By Glen Hallick - MarketsFarm
via Canadian Cattlemen - August 12, 2019
MarketsFarm — With markets largely rangebound since the end of June, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its long-awaited supply and demand report late Monday morning.
The initial reaction on the markets was bearish, with corn prices being hit very hard, down 25 cents per bushel for the September and December contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade (all figures US$).
Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures took a big blow as well, falling 24 to 27 cents per bushel. Minneapolis wheat fared somewhat better, with declines of six to eight cents per bushel.
The Chicago soy complex took significant losses, with soybeans down 11 to 12 cents per bushel. Soyoil dipped 0.07 to 0.15 cent/lb., while soymeal dropped $2.30-$4.70 per hundredweight.
USDA’s monthly world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) for August contained data from a resurvey of planted acres, especially those for corn and soybeans.
USDA’s previous acreage report, issued at the end of June, was considered to have been seriously flawed by the markets and producers, who felt the survey for the report was too early, having missed a truer picture of what U.S. farmers planted this year. July’s WASDE didn’t clear up the matter, as it relied on that skewed data.
In the August report, corn came in at 90 million acres, down from USDA’s previous estimate of 91.7 million. Market expectations called for 83.5 million to 89.9 million acres.
USDA forecast 82 million acres to be harvested, down from 83.6 million in the July report. In 2018, an estimated 81.7 million acres were harvested.
Corn production was pegged at 13.9 billion bushels, up slightly from USDA’s June estimate at 13.88 billion bushels. Trade predictions were lower, at 12.7 billion to 13.16 billion bushels.
Carryout for corn has now been forecast to be 2.18 billion bushels, down from USDA’s 2.34 billion in June.
According to the August WASDE there are to be 76.7 million acres of soybeans, down from USDA’s previous forecast of 80.04 million acres. Trade predictions called for 78 million to 83.5 million.
Grains Crash as Corn Has Bumper Crop at a Bad Time
By avid Russell, TradeStation Market Insights
August 12, 2019
Grains are crashing on signs of a worsening commodity glut.
CBOT Corn Futures (@C) dropped more than 6 percent halfway through Monday’s session. The last time it fell that much was April 1, 2013, according to TradeStation’s historical data. Wheat (@W) is down a similar amount — its worst day in at least 16 years.
Farmers should expect, “larger supplies, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, and greater ending stocks,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report. The prediction was partially based on satellite photos showing strong production. That stunned traders who thought the rainy spring would hurt output.
The selloffs come at a rough time for farmers as China halts grain imports in response to President Trump’s tariffs. It’s not immediately clear how much of today’s bad news results from the trade war. Soybeans (@S), the main product China buys, are own only 1.5 percent.
Farming Stocks Follow Grains
Companies associated with farming also took a hit on the news:
more, including links, charts
Released August 12, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department ofAgriculture (USDA).
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
USDA crop production outlook shocks producers
By Rhiannon Branch, Brownfield
August 12, 2019
On Monday the USDA raised its 2019 corn production outlook.
“I was shocked. It just seems like they’re not getting a good handle on the numbers.”
Former Illinois Ag Director and former Illinois Farm Bureau President Phillip Nelson says farmers are having a hard time believing the numbers.
“We thought that they would lower it, we didn’t know how much, but they raised it on top of all the prevented planting acres that are out there and a crop that is in trouble.”
He tells Brownfield some private firms have a better handle on the numbers than USDA does...
Bearish report swamps corn futures
Wheat corn following market lower
Ben Potter, BEEF Magazine
Aug 12, 2019
Grain futures are sharply lower this morning, led by selling in corn following a bearish production estimate from USDA that showed farmers planted more acres than expected.
“USDA has spoken, but what exactly did they say?” asks Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr. “The disconnect between huge prevent plant acreage for corn and the agency’s planted and harvested estimates awaits further explanation – and likely adjustment. There’s a good fit between prevent plant acreage for corn and adjustments to final acreage from August estimates, but these changes, as well as adjustments to yields, will take time to play out.”
With funds still long, Knorr says speculators are retreating to the sidelines for now. The question becomes: In the short-term, will they begin to sell more?
“Corn was still at the 25-cent limit, so if it doesn’t lock up completely the worst may be over,” he says. “End users may see this as a gift, but the big specs may be more cautious.”
For corn, the agency dropped its planted acre estimates by 1.7 million acres from July, now at 90.000 million acres. But trade estimates were well below that tally, with an average guess of 87.656 million acres. USDA also lowered its harvested acreage estimates from 83.600 million acres in July down to 82.000 million acres. Analysts expected a bigger drop, to 80.050 million acres.
Today’s data also revealed a record 11.2 million acres of prevent plant acres, says Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr.
“That easily surpassed the old record of 3.6 million and suggests farmers may have planted millions of acres as a cover crop or just get an MFP,” he says. “Those fields are unlikely to be harvested for grain, but instead will be cut for sileage.”
With the downward revisions to harvested acres, USDA now projects a total U.S. corn production of 13.875 billion bushels, with average yields totaling 166.0 bushels per acre. That’s moderately above trade estimates of 13.146 billion bushels on average yields of 164.9 bpa...
more, including Prevent Planted Acreage maps, table
Crop Progress Report Shows Stagnant Corn, Soybean Conditions
Crops’ growth stages remain well behind averages.
By Mike McGinnis, Successful Farming
Agriculture.com - 8/12/2019
DES MOINES, Iowa -- The U.S. corn and soybean crops conditions remain unchanged, according to the USDA’s weekly Crop Progress Report released Monday.
The overall condition of the corn crop is rated at 57% good to excellent in the top 18 corn producing states, equal to a week ago.
The USDA pegged 90% of the corn crop was in the silk stage, compared with a 97% five-year average.
Also, 39% of the corn has entered the dough stage vs. a 61% five-year average.
USDA rated the crop in the dent stage at 7% vs. 16% five-year average.
The nation’s crop is rated 54% good/excellent, equal to a week ago.
Also, 82% of the soybean crop is blooming vs. a 93% five-year average.
The USDA pegged the amount of soybeans setting pods at 54%, well below a five-year average of 76%.
more, including condition maps