[Fri]: The market is still operating under the positive technical influence of the sweeping reversal from Monday, according to The Hightower Report…
[Thurs]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were firm… Choice rose 39 cents… Select went down 34 cents… In negotiated cash sales in Iowa-Minnesota, the USDA reported 431 head sold dressed at $180-185, with 2,169 head sold live at $113-115. In Nebraska, 354 head sold dressed at $180-183 with 472 head sold live at $113. Current cattle prices are very disappointing to the Bulls who expected a $20 dollar break into the very best demand period of the year to generate some kind of rally with follow-through, says William Moore at the Price Futures Group. “Instead, we have morphed into a sideways pattern…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Fri 8/9/2019 9:12 AM
Cattle - Live cattle futures rose 30 to 45 cents in the front months on Thursday, according to Brugler Marketing and Management.
The market is still operating under the positive technical influence of the sweeping reversal from Monday, according to The Hightower Report.
Possibilities in livestock markets
A continued sharp advance of prices in China would suggest more upside for hogs in the mid-term, according to The Hightower Report.
The trade war with China also continues to be a factor, Allendale reported. China bought small amounts of U.S. soybeans, wheat, sorghum and pork last week before trade tensions escalated earlier this week in what may be the last U.S. commodity sales to China for the foreseeable future.
Thu 8/8/2019 5:19 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were firm on Choice and weak on Select on moderate demand and light to moderate offerings, USDA said.
Choice rose 39 cents to $216.88/cwt.
Select went down 34 cents to $192.37.
In negotiated cash sales in Iowa-Minnesota, the USDA reported 431 head sold dressed at $180-185, with 2,169 head sold live at $113-115. In Nebraska, 354 head sold dressed at $180-183 with 472 head sold live at $113.
Current cattle prices are very disappointing to the Bulls who expected a $20 dollar break into the very best demand period of the year to generate some kind of rally with follow-through, says William Moore at the Price Futures Group. “Instead, we have morphed into a sideways pattern – hovering only a few dollars over the June Lows.” Moore says the culprits have mostly been Macro a failed U.S./ China trade deal and concerns about a Global Recession.
However, cattle markets managed to hold on to moderate gains today, reported Stewart-Peterson
Livestock sales to China on up trend
Despite the ongoing trade wars, livestock is still moving to China. Cumulative sales to China reached 4900 tons which strongest pace since 2003, said Stewart-Peterson.
Total commitments for hogs to China have now reached 255,000 tons compared to the five-year average of 56,000 tons this time of year, says Stewart Peterson.
Weather continues to puzzle yield predictors
The Ag markets got a twirl today on position squaring ahead of the anticipated USDA data dump on Monday, weather forecasts for the upcoming week and concerns of crop losses, says CHS Hedging.
Eyes also remain on weather reports. The Midwest weather forecast has no major changes over the next 10 days with less than average precipitation, especially in the east, and below average temperatures, says ADM Investor Services. The 10 to 16 days forecast show average to a bit lower temps and bit lower than average rainfall.
Stewart-Peterson also notes that yields may drag with current dry conditions.
“The market action in the past month has been decidedly bearish,” but William Moore at the Price Future's Group, thinks the low prices aren’t really taking into consideration the poor condition of the U.S. corn crop. Moore is anxious to see the August Crop Report to be release on Monday which “will be more significant than your normal August report – as it will Include adjustments from the bogus USDA June 28 Acreage Report,” he said.
Corn prices rallied on crop concerns with a drier forecast in the mix. Gains were limited on less than ideal weekly export sales, CHS Hedging says.
Here, soybean prices took to the high side today on a flip in the weather outlook, says Ami Heesch, CHS Hedging. “There are concerns about persistent dryness in parts of the Upper Midwest that could drag down yield prospects in the soybean crop.” Prices drew additional support from spillover strength in the soyoil pit, she said.
However, soybean prices have dropped nearly 90 cents from their high. “We expect farmer selling has likely dried up,” said Stewart-Peterson.
Wheat prices were higher with Chicago in the lead on technical buying and active spread trade, says Ami Heesh of CHS Hedging. She attributes some of the increase to “borrowed strength in the row crops.”
Stewart-Peterson also noted that the corn and soybean markets are also affecting wheat prices currently. “The world seems to be sitting on ample supplies of wheat right now,” Stewart-Peterson also noted.
Export woes continue to plague the grain complex – and U.S. wheat was probably the first to be victimized – as its price on the world market is not competitive, says William Moore at the Price Futures Group. “This is why most every time Egypt tenders for wheat, the U.S. is excluded.” The only other “rally potential” would be of the “spill-over” variety -from corn and beans beans – and of late - that has been a factor, Moore says.