In this file:

 

·         Pork Profit Balloon Deflates; It’s Time to Reevaluate Liquidity

… We’re in a very interesting, if not treacherous, time in the evolution of world pork production, global markets and technological developments… There is no doubt that China needs pork, and they are getting it through a carefully orchestrated global acquisition scheme involving many sources and middlemen handlers…

 

·         As China Halts U.S. Soy Purchases, ‘Unknown’ Buyers Step Up

… Such unknown buyers often were thought to be China, which typically brings in about two-thirds of global soybean exports...

 

·         China's decision to cease all agricultural imports rocks U.S. farmers

... the National Pork Producers Council said its industry is being prevented "from fully capitalizing on a historic sales opportunity created by the outbreak of African swine fever in the world's largest pork-consuming nation"...

 

·         Roby announces a new round of payments to farmers impacted by the trade war

 

 

Pork Profit Balloon Deflates; It’s Time to Reevaluate Liquidity

 

Dennis DiPietre And Lance Mulberry, Knowledge Ventures, LLC

via FarmJournal's Pork - August 7, 201

 

The “giant sucking sound” (with apologies to the late Ross Perot) you might have heard or even felt was the air coming out of the pork profit balloon—not only now, but all the way out 12 months or more in the future. An Iowa firm that monitors future hog margins using current and expected futures costs and prices indicated that the average expected net income for producers fell a record single week amount of close to $25.00/head in the last week of July. This is an average drop for the entire coming 12 months.

 

While profits are still expected in every future month over the same horizon, they will, by this current market’s judgement, be substantially less. The decline was softened some by marginally favorable declines in futures markets prices for corn and soybeans. None of this is realized yet, so all of it could— and will—change some. But it’s a sign of the volatile nature of global markets right now.   

 

We’re in a very interesting, if not treacherous, time in the evolution of world pork production, global markets and technological developments, such as artificial intelligence. The current global political situation is rife with struggle, and the Trump administration is challenging customary terms of commerce in an attempt to reset the footing the relationships have rested on.

 

Of course, there’s resistance to change at every level of the changing trade tradition. But when major trading partners like China are involved, the offer and counteroffer can become attack and counterattack, as each party has a lot at stake.

 

China has the tools and the knowhow to press its side of the argument with high precision. As you may know, China uses artificial intelligence methods to micro-target counter-tariffs on the U.S. at the county level—and sometimes at geographic levels beyond counties. Geographies and product combinations as well as other key attributes are carefully chosen to cause producer frustration at a level that makes the political cost to the current administration too high to continue. 

 

Most recently, as the talks broke down the U.S. applied more pressure, and now we’re seeing counterattacks step up as each side attempts to strengthen its hand when new talks resume.

 

There is no doubt that China needs pork, and they are getting it through a carefully orchestrated global acquisition scheme involving many sources and middlemen handlers. The U.S. is now set up as a major exporting country producing pork in great excess of domestic consumption totals. There is a perfectly beautiful economic win-win possible here, but other very important issues reaching well outside of agriculture add complications to the simple logical resolutions possible...

 

more

https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/pork-profit-balloon-deflates-its-time-reevaluate-liquidity

 

 

As China Halts U.S. Soy Purchases, ‘Unknown’ Buyers Step Up

 

By Michael Hirtzer, Bloomberg

August 7, 2019

 

While China announced it has halted imports of American soybeans, a mysterious buyer has stepped up. The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Wednesday a sale of 165,000 metric tons of the oilseed to “unknown destinations.”

 

Such unknown buyers often were thought to be China, which typically brings in about two-thirds of global soybean exports. However, the Asian nation’s government on Monday asked its state-owned enterprises to halt purchases of U.S. agriculture products as the trade war between the countries escalated.

 

“With soybeans, we usually assume it’s China,” Arlan Suderman, chief economist at INTL FCStone in Kansas City, said by phone. “In this environment, it certainly would be risky for a private buyer, and I’m skeptical it would be state buyers either. I’m guessing in this case it might be another country.”

 

USDA’s announcement Wednesday was for roughly three bulk cargoes to be shipped in the 2019/20 season that begins on Sept. 1, in a deal that would have taken place in the past 24 hours. The buyer would have received a relative bargain...

 

more, including chart

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/as-china-halts-purchases-of-u-s-soy-unknown-buyers-step-up

 

 

China's decision to cease all agricultural imports rocks U.S. farmers

 

By Jessie Higgins, UPI

Aug. 8, 2019

 

EVANSVILLE, Ind., Aug. 8 (UPI) -- China's announcement this week that it will cease importing all agricultural products from the United States sent shock waves through the nation's already battered farming sector.

 

"It is kind of a disaster," said Will Rogers, a spokesman for the American Farm Bureau Federation. "There is no commodity right now that I can think of that is in good shape, no matter where you look."

 

China's Ministry of Commerce announced on Tuesday that it would suspend all U.S. agricultural purchases in retaliation for President Donald Trump's threat to impose a new 10 percent tariff on $300 billion of Chinese imports.

 

"This is a serious violation of the meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States," the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement.

 

The news hit farming communities hard.

 

China had been the largest or second largest export market for American agriculture every year since 2008, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That changed suddenly last summer when the nation began targeted U.S. farm goods with retaliatory tariffs. By the end of 2018, China had fallen to fifth place.

 

It was devastating decline, Rogers said. However, China still imported some $9.1 billion in agricultural goods from the U.S. that year.

 

"Now, we stand to lose all of what was a $9.1 billion market in 2018, which was down sharply from the $19.5 billion U.S. farmers exported to China in 2017," American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said in a statement…

 

... the National Pork Producers Council said its industry is being prevented "from fully capitalizing on a historic sales opportunity created by the outbreak of African swine fever in the world's largest pork-consuming nation"...

 

more 

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2019/08/08/Chinas-decision-to-cease-all-agricultural-imports-rocks-US-farmers/6121565219719/

 

 

Roby announces a new round of payments to farmers impacted by the trade war

 

By Brandon Moseley, Alabama Political Reporter

August 8, 2019

 

Monday, Congresswoman Martha Roby (R-Montgomery) announced that farmers who have been adversely impacted by foreign retaliatory tariffs are now eligible for a second round of USDA mitigation payments.

 

“On Monday, the Trump Administration opened the second round of applications for the Market Facilitation Program (MFP),” Rep. Roby said. “MFP is designed to aid farmers and ranchers whose commodities have been directly impacted by foreign retaliatory tariffs, and President Trump authorized USDA to provide up to $14.5 billion in direct payments through MFP.”

 

“These payments will be made to mitigate the losses for non-specialty crops, specialty crops, and animal products,” Roby added.

 

For more information about eligibility and to apply go to:

 

https://www.farmers.gov/manage/mfp

 

On May 23 U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue announced that there would a second round of MFP payments to farmers impacted by retaliatory tariffs.

 

In May 2018 President Donald J. Trump (R) announced tariffs on goods imported from a number of foreign countries, citing what he felt were unfair trade practices. One of these countries was China. China was the largest purchaser of American agricultural products, particularly soybeans. Prior to 2018, China purchased half of the soybeans grown in this country. China immediately retaliated against American farmers with tariffs and by purchasing fewer American agricultural products

 

For historical perspective the price of a bushel of soybeans peaked on August 12, 2012 at $17.58. It came back down to more reasonable levels of about $9.88 a bushel. On May 28, 2018, soybeans were trading at $10.21 a bushel. Then the trade war started. By July 19 the soybeans were trading at $8.19. The appearance of some success in trade talks saw soybean prices rise to $9.25 by January 19 of this year. Then the bottom fell out again and price plummeted to $8.09 by May 6. That was the lowest price in 12 years. Soybeans are currently trading at $8.53.

 

While China is threatening not to buy American agricultural products ever again, on Wednesday experts in the industry said that Brazil and Argentina, China’s new suppliers, do not have sufficient supply to satisfy China’s needs forcing them to come back to the U.S.

 

On Monday, U.S. Senator Doug Jones (D-Alabama) said at a town hall in Hamilton, “I am worried about our agriculture because of tariffs. Soybean farmers and cotton farmers are getting hit hard.”

 

“You can’t sell the soybeans,” Jones said. The administration is provided aid to farmers, but “Farmers don’t want a handout they want a market. The Chinese bought half of our soybeans. If something does not change farmers are going to lose that market in China. There are more

and more bankruptcies among farmers there are more and more suicides among farmers.”

 

The price of lean hogs also took a hit last year; but there prices have rebounded significantly after the signing of the Mexico, Canada Agreement. Mexico and Canada are the U.S.’s largest purchasers of pork, though China is also huge. Pork producers are hopeful that Congress will ratify the MCA.

 

There was some good news for farmers on the trade front on Friday when the United States and the European Union have reached an agreement...

 

more

https://www.alreporter.com/2019/08/08/roby-announces-a-new-round-of-payments-to-farmers-impacted-by-the-trade-war/