[Thurs]: The cattle market and hog market have both hit lows recently and are trying to rebound, according to The Hightower Report… [Weds]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were steady to firm… Choice rose 71 cents… Select went up 6 cents… In negotiated cash sales in Iowa-Minnesota, the USDA reported 531 head sold dressed at $183-184, with no live sales. In Nebraska, 1,503 head were sold dressed at $183, while 112 head sold live at $113.25…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Thu 8/8/2019 8:58 AM
Cattle - Live cattle futures were 22 to 65 cents higher on Wednesday and feeder cattle futures were mixed, according to Brugler Marketing and Management.
October live cattle traded right up to the 50-day moving average yesterday and traders are watching to see if it is bullish or bearish today.
Livestock markets mixed
The cattle market and hog market have both hit lows recently and are trying to rebound, according to The Hightower Report.
This morning’s weekly pork export numbers will be closely watched, Allendale said.
Wed 8/7/2019 4:41 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were steady to firm on moderate to fairly good demand and moderate offerings, USDA said.
Choice rose 71 cents to $216.49/cwt.
Select went up 6 cents to $192.71.
In negotiated cash sales in Iowa-Minnesota, the USDA reported 531 head sold dressed at $183-184, with no live sales. In Nebraska, 1,503 head were sold dressed at $183, while 112 head sold live at $113.25.
The Hightower Report noted that prices are remaining firm so far in August, with continued high boxed beef cutouts. This comes despite a typical tendency for beef prices to fall during August.
Choice beef hit its highest level since July 8, as today’s action was “fairly quiet,” Stewart-Peterson said. The futures are “continuing to consolidate within their recent ranges,” they said.
Cattle consolidating, hogs rebound
With cattle moving higher, trade is “consolidating in the wake of its steep selloff on Monday,” The Hightower Report said. “Prices have stayed within Monday’s wide range, and after being lower yesterday, they were higher today.”
Despite the trade war, the impact of China’s pork prices is still important to U.S. production, Stewart-Peterson said. “China's spot pig prices continue to rally, keeping U.S. futures supported today,” they said. “While the U.S. share of future China pork sales is likely declining with the recent tensions, other countries will have pork needs when they ship product to China.”
Taking a longer look at trade
Bloomberg took a look at the “big bets” both the U.S. and China are making in their trade negotiations. “For Trump, the bet is that a hard-line stance on China will help him win another four years in the Oval Office,” they wrote in the article.
Greg Johnson of The Andersons said with three more trading days until the upcoming report, “there is a wide range of opinions” as to what the acreage guesses will come out to. “Someone is going to be surprised on Monday.”
The Hightower Report said that traders are still concerned about the eastern corn-belt states, with moisture stress starting to develop. They said the 14-day percent of normal precipitation is continuing to worsen across the eastern belt “with many areas at 25% or less.”
“Monday's report could say any number of things and send prices either screaming higher or collapsing,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Take time to prepare between now and then to position yourself. We like a balanced approach. If you are behind on cash sales, we suggest making enough sales to feel comfortable or get current with recommendations. We also like the idea of purchasing puts against unpriced projected inventory. If concerned about corn that is already forward sold, consider purchasing call options against.”
“Cofco International, the trading arm of China's top food company, plans to increase soybean purchases from Brazil by 5% a year over the next five years,” Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said. “Cofco exported roughly 13.0 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds from Brazil last year.”
China’s national grain and oils information Center slid their import estimate to 87.0 mln tonnes, down 2, as there is weak domestic demand from African Swine Fever, The Hightower Report said. The market is continuing to consolidate in Monday’s range, they said.
Wheat recovered from early session losses today, but they continue to struggle, Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said. “Yesterday, traders were reminded that U.S. wheat remains overpriced compared to Black Sea origin wheat,” he said.
The wheat market is still trading on both sides of unchanged, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. “The French ag minister said production is up 12% now, so that’s going to put some pressure on us,” she said. “It looks like there’s going to be a lot more weakness ahead of the USDA report, even though we’ve been able to move back to unchanged.”