[Weds]: A Chinese report from China’s National Development and Reform Commission indicated China had purchased 40,000 tonnes of U.S. pork from July 19 through Aug. 2. “This is odd because last Thursday's weekly FAS report indicated Chinese buyers cancelled 12,222 tonnes of 2019 and 2,521 tonnes of 2020 delivered U.S. pork,” Allendale said. “This coming Thursday's new updated pork sales numbers will be watched closely”… [Tues]: National carcass base down 94 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 61 cents…  USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 60 cents… Continued tensions with trade are still hurting the hog market, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. “The market has been almost straight down the last four sessions,” and with some of the long liquidation, McGathey said, showing how thin the markets are… 

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Wed 8/7/2019 8:44 AM

 

Lean hogs - A Chinese report from China’s National Development and Reform Commission indicated China had purchased 40,000 tonnes of U.S. pork from July 19 through Aug. 2. “This is odd because last Thursday's weekly FAS report indicated Chinese buyers cancelled 12,222 tonnes of 2019 and 2,521 tonnes of 2020 delivered U.S. pork,” Allendale said. “This coming Thursday's new updated pork sales numbers will be watched closely.”

 

With hog prices back to their pre-ASF levels, the demand for pork appears to be strong as the USDA pork cutout is hitting its highest level in nearly a year, The Hightower Report said.

 

Hogs may have found their bottom

 

With the lean hog market embracing the disappointment in the U.S./China trade relations, strong domestic pork prices may help bring the market out of its bottom. “The possibility that the market has fully absorbed the disappointment … could mean that Monday’s low was a major bottom,” The Hightower Report said.

 

With China stepping in to support their falling currency, trade tensions eased across the board, limiting selling pressure in the live cattle market as well. However, “there is still a level of anxiety in the market over trade,” The Hightower Report said.

 

Tue 8/6/2019 4:25 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base down 94 cents to $75.22/cwt.

National live fell $1.26 to $59.64

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 61 cents to $75.58

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 60 cents at $88.73/cwt.

 

Continued tensions with trade are still hurting the hog market, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. “The market has been almost straight down the last four sessions,” and with some of the long liquidation, McGathey said, showing how thin the markets are.

 

“The U.S. dollar held support levels this morning and surged higher later in the day,” Stewart-Peterson said. “This makes U.S. pork more expensive on the export markets. This is especially negative, given the recent trade developments with China. There is still talk that other countries exports of pork to China sharply increase into the end of the year, which will open other opportunities for U.S. pork exports.”

 

Hogs continue falling

 

The Hightower Report said China’s intervention to support their currency “eased trade tensions a bit,” which eased selling pressure today.

 

Despite falling again, the market respected the lows that lean hogs made yesterday. “With the recent selloff, hog prices are back to levels they were at before the African swine fever crisis hit,” the Hightower Report said.

 

Trade war a "body blow"

 

The China/U.S. trade war continues to grab headlines, with China announcing yesterday they would stop buying U.S. agricultural products. Reuters reported that American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duval called this a “body blow to thousands of farmers and ranchers.”

 

“There are mixed opinions as to how much the crops have developed and improved during this year’s growing season,” Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. “The current debate is how many acres were planted and to what commodity.”

 

Corn

 

As weather conditions improve slightly, combined with trade concerns, corn pushed down slightly today, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said.

 

With corn’s condition dropping slightly in this past Monday’s crop progress report, Brian Eley of The Andersons noted that the crop is the second-worst rated crop for this week in the last 10 years. The same is true for soybeans.

 

Soybeans

 

Brian Eley of The Andersons said today’s trade was potentially more “pre-positioning” ahead of next Monday’s report, and wheat drug down the soybean market as well.

 

“The biggest focus in the bean market is the concern of China stepping away from U.S. purchases of additional beans,” Stewart-Peterson said. “The world has ample supplies of beans, and demand remains a key concern going forward.”

 

Wheat

 

With a lack of demand combining with spring and winter wheat harvests, wheat felt the brunt of the grain trade pressure. “Technical selling and a rebound in the U.S. dollar provided additional pressure on the wheat market,” Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said.

 

“Despite some global production concerns and individual analysts reducing this year's Russian wheat crop again, there is no shortage of wheat in the world and global demand will stay competitive,” Stewart-Peterson said.

 

iowafarmertoday.com