[Weds]: The Hightower Report said that U.S. production “is expected to decline more than normal from the fourth quarter in 2019 to the first quarter of 2020,” which will be a supportive force in a long-term view. However, a tendency for beef prices to decline in August may bring some near term pressure to the market… [Tues]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were higher… Choice rose $1.08… Select went up 98 cents… In negotiated cash sales in Iowa-Minnesota, the USDA reported 2,067 head sold dressed at $180-185, with no live sales. In Nebraska, 3,005 head sold dressed at $180-185. After yesterday’s “wild ride,” things steadied in the cattle market, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said, but trading is staying at the lower end of the range…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Wed 8/7/2019 8:44 AM
Cattle - Estimates of U.S. beef exports had them pegged at 0.4% under last year’s pace, with import number coming in at 8% below last year, Allendale said. “That is good considering the whole Jan - Jun imports were 3% over last year,” they said.
The Hightower Report said that U.S. production “is expected to decline more than normal from the fourth quarter in 2019 to the first quarter of 2020,” which will be a supportive force in a long-term view. However, a tendency for beef prices to decline in August may bring some near term pressure to the market.
Hogs may have found their bottom
With the lean hog market embracing the disappointment in the U.S./China trade relations, strong domestic pork prices may help bring the market out of its bottom. “The possibility that the market has fully absorbed the disappointment … could mean that Monday’s low was a major bottom,” The Hightower Report said.
With China stepping in to support their falling currency, trade tensions eased across the board, limiting selling pressure in the live cattle market as well. However, “there is still a level of anxiety in the market over trade,” The Hightower Report said.
Tue 8/6/2019 4:25 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were higher on moderate to good demand and moderate offerings, USDA said.
Choice rose $1.08 to $215.78/cwt.
Select went up 98 cents to $192.65.
In negotiated cash sales in Iowa-Minnesota, the USDA reported 2,067 head sold dressed at $180-185, with no live sales. In Nebraska, 3,005 head sold dressed at $180-185.
After yesterday’s “wild ride,” things steadied in the cattle market, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said, but trading is staying at the lower end of the range. She said feeders saw a slight rebound in trade today with follow-through buying. “It’s possible we might get additional buyers on the commercial side,” she said.
With USDA’s choice boxed beef cutouts up, the mark is challenging the highest market the cutout has been in a month, USDA said. Today’s live cattle market traded within yesterday’s range.
Hogs continue falling
The Hightower Report said China’s intervention to support their currency “eased trade tensions a bit,” which eased selling pressure today.
Despite falling again, the market respected the lows that lean hogs made yesterday. “With the recent selloff, hog prices are back to levels they were at before the African swine fever crisis hit,” the Hightower Report said.
Trade war a "body blow"
The China/U.S. trade war continues to grab headlines, with China announcing yesterday they would stop buying U.S. agricultural products. Reuters reported that American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duval called this a “body blow to thousands of farmers and ranchers.”
“There are mixed opinions as to how much the crops have developed and improved during this year’s growing season,” Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. “The current debate is how many acres were planted and to what commodity.”
As weather conditions improve slightly, combined with trade concerns, corn pushed down slightly today, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said.
With corn’s condition dropping slightly in this past Monday’s crop progress report, Brian Eley of The Andersons noted that the crop is the second-worst rated crop for this week in the last 10 years. The same is true for soybeans.
Brian Eley of The Andersons said today’s trade was potentially more “pre-positioning” ahead of next Monday’s report, and wheat drug down the soybean market as well.
“The biggest focus in the bean market is the concern of China stepping away from U.S. purchases of additional beans,” Stewart-Peterson said. “The world has ample supplies of beans, and demand remains a key concern going forward.”
With a lack of demand combining with spring and winter wheat harvests, wheat felt the brunt of the grain trade pressure. “Technical selling and a rebound in the U.S. dollar provided additional pressure on the wheat market,” Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said.
“Despite some global production concerns and individual analysts reducing this year's Russian wheat crop again, there is no shortage of wheat in the world and global demand will stay competitive,” Stewart-Peterson said.