In this file:
· China Might Need More Pork, But U.S. Farmers Are Unlikely To Benefit
· Tyson Foods Reports No Major Financial Gains from ASF Yet
· China announces ban on ag products from USA
China Might Need More Pork, But U.S. Farmers Are Unlikely To Benefit
Jenny Splitter, Contributor, Forbes
Aug 6, 2019
Tyson Foods released its third quarter earnings this Monday with a statement from CEO Noel White on African Swine Fever and the Chinese import market. “Given the magnitude of the losses in China’s hog and pork supplies, the impending impact on global protein supply...is likely to be a multi-year event,” said White. But don’t count on African Swine Fever to benefit U.S. pork farmers anytime soon, as barriers between U.S. pork exports and the Chinese consumer remain firmly in place. And with China’s most recent decision to halt imports of all U.S. agricultural products, commodities like soy are threatened too.
African Swine Fever, or ASF, is a highly contagious virus that has the potential to do serious damage, with some researchers estimating Chinese pork production could fall by as much as a third because of the disease. That’s significant for a country that produces almost half of the 114 million metric tons of pork produced globally each year. At the same time, the impact may not be felt right away, if it’s even felt at all.
Lucinda Cramsey, an eighth generation hog farmer from La Belle, Missouri, says the Chinese still have plenty of untainted pork in reserve. “They’re going to make their way through those frozen pork bellies first,” she says, before we “find out where they’re going to pull their protein.” With animal scientists working tirelessly to develop a vaccine, it’s possible the virus could be wiped out before those stores are fully depleted.
If China does end up increasing its pork imports, it’s unlikely it would turn to the U.S. at this point. David Ortega, PhD, an agricultural economist at Michigan State University who has researched Chinese consumer pork preferences, says a sizable portion of U.S. pork is ineligible for export to China. “The Chinese currently prohibit imports of pork that have been given ractopamine, [a feed additive and growth additive] used readily in U.S. pork production,” says Ortega.
In July, China suspended all pork imports from Canada after finding ractopamine in a pork shipment from Canadian producer Frigo Royal Inc, as well as a number of other discrepancies. China also canceled pork orders from the U.S., which prompted a tweet from President Trump threatening a further retaliatory tariff. Now, just this week, China announced a halt to all U.S. agricultural imports, Bloomberg reports.
Thanks to the 2013 ban, European pork producers have fared far better than U.S. companies like Tyson Foods in capturing the Chinese import market. Though some U.S. pork producers have moved to phase out ractopamine from at least some of their pork production (companies like Smithfield Foods, for example, which was purchased by a Chinese firm in 2013, have partly phased it out), that’s not an industry-wide standard.
Tyson does produce some ractopamine-free pork but the company has not provided any exact numbers. “How much production Tyson has shifted to ractopamine-free...will determine how much they can supply to the Chinese market,” says Ortega, but there are other challenges too. “Even then,” he says, “the recent trade war is creating a lot of uncertainty and affecting U.S. pork exports.” Tyson, along with other chicken producers, were hoping cheap chicken exports could fill the void. But worsening trade relations may make that impossible now too.
Cramsey, who farms 200 acres and sells her pork domestically, says she created Moink, an online retail site for small farmers, as a way to decouple her business from the wins and losses of the Tyson Foods of the world. “Part of the reason we did that is to make us immune to all of these things we can’t control. I can’t control global markets, and I can’t play in them either,” she says. “So to take that control and give it back to the independent producer, we had to find a way to bypass all this other stuff.”
Despite rising expectations for pork and poultry exports, Tyson’s third quarter earnings were primarily boosted by sales of beef, Bloomberg reports...
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Tyson Foods Reports No Major Financial Gains from ASF Yet
by Jennifer Shike, AgWeb
Aug 05, 2019
Although Tyson Foods Inc projected in May that it’s pork, chicken and beef units could all benefit late in fiscal year 2019 from increased meat demand from China, the company said on Monday that it has not reaped major financial gains yet.
The deadly swine virus, African swine fever (ASF), that has killed millions of hogs in China and is expected to create a global shortfall in pork, has kept investors and American farmers waiting to benefit from the outbreak, Reuters reported.
U.S. pork shipments to China have suffered since Beijing imposed retaliatory duties on imports last year as part of the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China.
Still, Tyson reported better profits than expected for the quarter ended June 29, as sales volumes and average prices increased for its beef and pork products.
“The African swine fever outbreak continues to take its toll on hog supplies in Asia,” said Noel White, Tyson’s president and chief executive...
China announces ban on ag products from USA
Vincent ter Beek, Pig Progress
Aug 6, 2019
In a next round of measures and counter-measures in a trade dispute between the United States and China, the Chinese government has sent out directives for state-owned agricultural companies not to buy from US suppliers.
The Chinese move is a retaliation to an announcement by the US president Trump to increase taxes for US$ 300 million worth of products with 10% extra, as from September 1. It is believed agriculture is being targeted as the Chinese realise that in the Mid-West is the lion’s share of Mr Trump’s electorate.
African Swine Fever developments
In the light of the current African Swine Fever (ASF) developments, that measure could not come at a worse moment. Although the Chinese authorities have reported barely over 150 outbreaks of ASF to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), recent estimates point into the direction of perhaps up to 50% of the total sow herd being lost in China. Until now, frozen stocks have managed to compensate for the loss of pork, but rising pork prices throughout China demonstrate, according to analysts, that those supplies will come to an end.
China currently imports pork from the EU, Brazil, the USA and until very recently, Canada. As the total number of pigs outside China was roughly the same as the number of pigs inside China, the demand to pork coming from China will be exceeding any country can ever supply. In case the US will not be able to export, pig meat on the world market will become even more scarce, leading to even higher prices.
Soybeans for livestock feeding ...
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