In this file:
· American farmers say China can't meet its future demand for soybeans without the US
· Corn Rating Falls, Soybean Conditions Nearing A Month of No Improvement
American farmers say China can't meet its future demand for soybeans without the US
Alexis Keenan, Yahoo Finance
August 5, 2019
U.S. soy farmers caught up in trade disputes between the U.S. and China that escalated over the weekend say they’re weathering decreased business from the globe’s largest soy importer. But these farmers remain confident China’s tough stance on trade will prove unsustainable.
Brazil, the world’s largest soy exporter, can’t independently produce enough soy for China’s swelling middle class, Darin Johnson, a soy farmer in Southern Minnesota, told Yahoo Finance. Over the past year, China has turned to soy producers in Brazil and Argentina, countries expected to increase exports during the next marketing year.
“There just isn't enough soy in the world to provide all of their needs,” said Johnson, who’s also secretary of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association.
‘They can’t ... eliminate demand for U.S. soybeans’
This week, reports emerged that China had halted agriculture purchases by state-owned enterprises, and that privately run Chinese companies that had been granted waivers to buy soybeans had stopped doing so because of trade war fears. But this situation is untenable, according to representatives from various agriculture trade groups in the U.S.
“The fact of the matter is that the U.S. is the world's largest soybean producer, and the second largest exporter, after Brazil, and the world needs U.S. agricultural products,” said Owen Wagner, CEO of the North Carolina Soybean Association.
“What China has been able to accomplish, by putting tariffs on U.S. soybeans, is basically to put our soybeans on sale relative to Brazil,” he said. “But they can't effectively eliminate demand for U.S. soybeans.”
There’s another reason China’s ability to further retaliate against American soy producers is weakening, according to Wagner.
“They've done as close to as much damage as they can do within the context of this year,” Wagner told Yahoo Finance, explaining that China’s imports of American soy, down 75% to 80% from peak levels set in 2016-2017, and down as much as 98% in 2018, are close to bottoming out. China’s decreased reliance on American soy, he said, has led to a “reshuffling” of global trade flows that have seen U.S. soy farmers seeking alternative markets.
“What we've seen is the U.S. has been really successful in growing its exports to Europe,” he said. “They've been close to 10 million tons over the past year, and that's a level that hasn't been seen since the mid-1990s.” U.S. soybean exports to Mexico have also increased over the past two years, he said.
Swine fever means China needs less soy — for now ...
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Corn Rating Falls, Soybean Conditions Nearing A Month of No Improvement
Soybeans are sharply behind in setting pods.
By Mike McGinnis, Successful Farming
Agriculture.com - 8/5/2019
DES MOINES, Iowa -- The U.S. corn crop conditions dropped, while the soybean crop is nearing a month of no improvement, according to the USDA’s weekly Crop Progress Report released Monday.
The overall condition of the corn crop is rated at 57% good to excellent in the top 18 corn producing states, a drop from 58% a week ago.
The USDA pegged 78% of the corn crop was in the silk stage, compared with a 93% five-year average.
Also, 23% of the corn has entered the dough stage vs. a 42% five-year average.
The nation’s crop is rated 54% good/excellent, equal to a week ago.
Also, 72% of the soybean crop is blooming vs. a 87% five-year average.
The USDA pegged the amount of soybeans setting pods at 37%, well below a five-year average of 63%.
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