[Tues]: The hog market had been counting on a sharp increase in pork exports to China and it is giving back the gains made based on those expectations so prices should be near the bottom, according to The Hightower Report… [Mon]: National carcass base down 90 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base had no comparison… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $1.49… the hog market hit its lowest level since Aug. 15 of 2018 before rebounding before the close of trade today…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Tue 8/6/2019 9:13 AM
Lean hogs - On the lean hog side of things, the market is back to levels not seen since last August, according to Blue Line Futures.
The hog market had been counting on a sharp increase in pork exports to China and it is giving back the gains made based on those expectations so prices should be near the bottom, according to The Hightower Report.
Livestock Markets mostly down
Livestock markets were sharply down on Monday but they did bounce back a little and could be more mixed today, according to Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain.
Yesterday’s choppy trade came on the back of headlines about the escalation of the U.S. China trade war, according to Blue Line Futures.
Mon 8/5/2019 5:05 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base down 90 cents to $76.01/cwt.
National live fell $1.08 to $61.13
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base had no comparison and sits at $76.19
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $1.49at $88.13/cwt.
"Headlines are having a huge effect" on the hog market, Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said. "Now that we are coming off the lows a little bit, we might have a few buyers come into the market."
"The recent pressure appears to have been too much too soon for the hog market to sustain, and it is unclear if today's buyers have been covering short positions or traders trying to pick a bottom," Stewart-Peterson said. "Chinese and U.S. spot pig prices continue to rally in spite of the sharp futures pressure lately."
Livestock sees volatile day
October cattle saw some sharp selling early on today, and failed to trade back up to a positive number. The low the contract hit was its lowest level in a month, as a "risk-off" tone in the marketplace is bringing in heavy selling in cattle, The Hightower Report said.
Meanwhile, the hog market hit its lowest level since Aug. 15 of 2018 before rebounding before the close of trade today. With the trade war hitting new heights between the U.S. and China, but traders saw value in the low point and created gains, with October's contract finishing up $1.70.
Crop progress shows conditions steady
Today was the final Crop Progress report ahead of next week's highly anticipated acreage update from the USDA.
In the report, corn's condition was moved down slightly to 57% Good/Excellent, a percentage point decrease from last week's mark of 58%. Corn silking is 15 percentage points behind the 5-year average, coming in at 78%.
Soybeans are also behind their normal pace, with only 37% reported at setting pods, 26 points behind average, but the condition of the crop held steady from last week at 54%.
After all the news about China depleted the markets going into the weekend, Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said buyers were stepping in today and preventing the fall getting any worse. He said the overnight session traded with light volume and was a "little misleading," but today's rebound in trade is a positive sign, he said.
Corn saw bargain buyers emerge today, as the market was technically oversold Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. With cooler, wet forecasts coming out later in the day for parts of the Western Corn Belt and southern areas, but dryness staying warm in the Eastern Corn Belt, Heesch said there are concerns about how much damage could occur.
For today's progress report, "a big bulk of the numbers are in the fair category, so it can go either way," John Payne of Daniel's Trading said. "The late summer dryness we are getting is important to watch."
Trade concerns continue to drive the soybean market, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. However, around midday, prices saw a slight bounce back with weather conditions, but China news continued to limit the market.
"The recent dry spell in the Midwest has not been ideal for the develoopment of soybeans," ADM Investor Services said.
Profit taking hurt the wheat market early on in trade, but like the other row crops, the prices turned higher in support. Exports remain on the low end, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said.
"The wheat market continues to be pressured by cheap Black Sea region and EU region FOB offers that are well below U.S. wheat offers," The Hightower Report said. "Steep declines in equity markets and the weakness in the Chinese yuan have also provided bearish forces."