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·         More Pain for Crop Markets as Trump Ratchets Up Trade War Again

·         Uncertain times ahead for US soybean as Shanghai talks end: sources



More Pain for Crop Markets as Trump Ratchets Up Trade War Again


    Trade has ‘real and serious consequences for rural America’

    Crop exporters concerned China will strengthen ties with rivals


By Michael Hirtzer and Mike Dorning, Bloomberg

August 1, 2019


A fresh salvo from Donald Trump in the U.S.-China trade war roiled agriculture markets and prompted criticism from farmers.


U.S. President Trump abruptly escalated his trade war Thursday, announcing a new tariff on the Asian nation’s imports and bringing a surprise end to the truce in place since he met Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Osaka at the end of June. Cotton, soybean and hog futures fell.


The latest missive underscores how tenuous the situation is for American farmers, who have faced retaliatory Chinese duties for more than a year. Demand for U.S. agriculture has languished at a time when producers have also battled wild weather and bulging inventories.


“Trade policy is not a game -- it has real and serious consequences for rural America,” said Roger Johnson, president of the National Farmers Union, the nation’s second-largest general farm organization.


“Immediately after President Trump tweeted his tariff threats, already low commodity prices slipped yet again, but the long-term implications for our country’s reputation as a reliable trading partner are likely to be even more damaging,” Johnson said in a statement. “It may take President Trump just a few minutes to write 280 characters, but family farmers and ranchers could be dealing with the fallout for decades to come.”


Shares of agricultural giant Bunge Ltd. fell Thursday, while Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. pared earlier gains.


“It’s a risk-off trade,’’ Don Roose, president of brokerage U.S. Commodities in Iowa, said by phone. “We had a prelude that things were not going well, and the announcement of the new tariff was all it took to take this market down.’’


ADM earlier Thursday said it was stepping up a cost-cutting drive to fight thin industry margins as a resolution to the U.S.-China trade war takes longer than expected. Bunge is also going through a similar process, while Cargill Inc. said last month that it was reviewing its business plans due to a slowdown in earnings and headwinds to its operations.


While the Trump administration has unveiled two rounds of federal aid to help farmers mitigate their losses, most growers have said they’d rather see an end to the dispute...


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Uncertain times ahead for US soybean as Shanghai talks end: sources



via Hellenic Shipping News - 02/08/2019      


The US soybean farmers might face uncertain times selling their soy stocks as the two-day Sino-US trade talks in Shanghai ended Wednesday without an agreement, sources said.


Both sides agreed to meet in September to initiate yet another round of trade negotiations, the first of which started last December.


“Even with high tariffs, China will continue to buy US agricultural products such as soybean, corn, and meat in small volumes,” Chinese agro-commodity consultancy JCI China said.


Any prospect of a successful trade deal took a hit Tuesday, when the US President Donald Trump accused China of not buying US agricultural products as promised.


In a series of tweets, he added that China always changed any deal in the end to its benefit.


The US-China trade talks restarted after Trump met his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka,Japan, last month.


After the meeting, China agreed to buy more US-origin agricultural products, including soybeans.


However, on July 11, the US president complained that China was not buying US farm products.


“They have not been buying the agricultural products from our great farmers that they said they would,” Trump tweeted then. “Hopefully, they will start soon.”


Last week, the Chinese government, as a goodwill gesture before the Shanghai talks, approved five local soy crushing companies to buy around 3 million mt of US soybeans, without the retaliatory import tariffs, sources said.


The possibility of a trade deal at the Shanghai talks was very low, director of agro-consultancy ARC Mercosul, Matheus Pereira, saidearlier.


“Beijing is in no hurry to resolve the trade dispute with the Americans,” Matheus said. China may be waiting for the 2020 US presidential elections results, to move forward with any kind of resolution.


US is the world’s second-largest soybean exporter, behind Brazil. Both countries together accounted for over 80% of global soy salesin the 2017-18 season.


Before the trade dispute started last year, China used to be the biggest market for US soybeans, taking over 60% of US soy exports.


In July 2018, China imposed an additional 25% import tariff on US-origin soybeans in response to tariffs the US had placed on Chinese goods.


As a result, soybean shipments from the US to China fell 81% year on year...