[Thurs]: Hightower said pork cut values continue to come under pressure but there are opportunities for export increases to China and Mexico… [Weds]: National carcass base was 64 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base rose $1.36… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $2.17… “Pork values made a big jump higher yesterday and many suspect that a large foreign purchase was made,” Stewart-Peterson said. “There is also talk that pork values so cheap may be enough to clear some excess supply. U.S./China trade negotiations started again yesterday with the first confirmed contact between the two teams since Trump and Xi met at the G10 Summit”…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Thu 7/11/2019 9:37 AM
Lean hogs - Hightower said pork cut values continue to come under pressure but there are opportunities for export increases to China and Mexico.
Allendale said there have been some new pork sales to China over the last six weeks, but traders would like to see those figures pick up even more.
No impact from WASDE expected for livestock
Livestock and meat tables will be part of today’s USDA WASDE report but traders are not expecting to see many changes to USDA’s beef numbers in that report, according to Allendale.
The pork market seems to be in position to see higher pork exports to China and Mexico, according to Hightower, but it remains to be seen whether that will happen.
Wed 7/10/2019 4:45 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base was 64 cents higher to $67.60/cwt.
National live was up 67 cents to $52.05
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base rose $1.36 to $69.17
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $2.17 to $71.60/cwt.
“Pork values made a big jump higher yesterday and many suspect that a large foreign purchase was made,” Stewart-Peterson said. “There is also talk that pork values so cheap may be enough to clear some excess supply. U.S./China trade negotiations started again yesterday with the first confirmed contact between the two teams since Trump and Xi met at the G10 Summit.”
Average weights were down, with a larger decline than is normally seen over one week. “Weekly average weights fell 2.2 pounds on the week to 280.2 pounds from 278.4 pounds last year,” the Hightower Report said. “This is a larger than normal decline in weights for one week.”
Cattle stumbles after big Tuesday
Cattle may have been seeing some liquidation selling Wednesday. “August cattle closed 50 lower on the day with an inside trading day,” the Hightower Report said. “Weakness in the beef market has clashed with the sharp rally in futures, and this may have sparked some long liquidation selling today.”
Hog markets moved higher on exports and pork values. “August hogs closed sharply higher on the day and saw their highest close since June 19,” the Hightower Report said. “…The market traded sharply higher on the day as there is a more hopeful tone regarding exports and the bounce in pork values this week has added to the more positive tone.”
Trade setting up for tomorrow
Crop markets were watching weather developments. “The trade awaits Thursday's USDA report along with updated weather forecasts,” the Hightower Report said. “The tropical storm Barry should bring heavy moisture to the Gulf but there is model divergence on whether the corn-belt will see beneficial moisture from the remnants of the storm.”
“Tomorrow's USDA Supply and Demand report has been the main focus of markets this week,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Considering the discrepancies between the June Supply and Demand report's acreage estimate and the intended acreage number released at the end of the month, there is a heightened degree of uncertainty for tomorrow's data set.”
Corn futures markets were reacting to the idea that the Corn Belt weather might be helping the late-planted corn catch up. “Corn futures are backing off recent highs due to talk that US weather may be helping the late planted US crop,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Slow export trade is also weighing on futures.”
“It will take a very late fall to get the crops home with no additional losses as there is a long way to go,” Jack Scoville, Price Futures Group, said. “It is warmer now so the crops have a chance to progress, but rain will be needed frequently due to the poor root structure as the crop got planted in mostly very wet conditions.”
Soybeans faced supply and demand concerns. “Supply bears feel World stocks are adequate to satisfy demand,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Demand bears are concerned that China may import less soybeans. That leaves the final US soybean crop size as key to final carryout and eventually price direction.”
There remains uncertainty about this year’s soybean crop. “These crops have a long way to go before there can be much of a harvest for Soybeans in this area this year,” Jack Scoville, Price Futures Group, said. “There will undoubtedly be yield loss and USDA will start to calculate the lost crop potential in its monthly updates next month.”
“Wheat futures have backed off recent high. Talk of normal crops in Europe and Black Sea plus better than expected US winter wheat yields has offered resistance,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Continued near record high ratings of the US spring wheat crop has also weighed on prices.”
There was no major export news to support wheat markets. “There was no real news to support wheat prices as Egypt bought from Ukraine and Romania and other sales have been posted by Europe in recent days,” Jack Scoville, Price Futures Group, said. “The US Dollar keeps moving higher and this hurts sales potential as well.”