In this file:
· Cattle Fundamentals Turning Supportive
· Meat Market Update | Wholesale prices continue downward trend
Cattle Fundamentals Turning Supportive
By Naomi Blohm, Successful Farming
Agriculture.com - 7/9/2019
Quietly gaining traction in the background of the spring crop planting delay are live cattle futures. After losing over $15 a pound since April, prices seem poised to be forming a bottom. The sell-off for the past two months was due to ample second-quarter supplies. Now as we start third quarter with eyes on fourth quarter, the fundamentals appear to be shifting to lower supplies and ample demand.
According to beefboard.org, “Final figures in 2018 beef production are expected to be up 2.8% from 2017 – the second highest on record after 27.1 billion pounds in 2002 – and are forecast to be up 3.3% in 2019.” So while supplies overall are up, the market seems to have absorbed that news, and may now be focused on the future. The USDA believes at the end of 2019 and into the first quarter of 2020, beef production will be reduced by 505 million pounds, which would be the second-largest drop on record. It would also likely support the February 2020 live cattle futures.
On the demand front, “Strong consumer beef demand is expected to continue through 2019, with the USDA predicting consumers in the U.S. will eat 8.9% more beef this year,” as suggested by beefboard.org. Looking at exports, beef for the week ending June 27, 2019, came in at 18,700 MT. That’s up 24% from the previous week and up 13% from the prior four-week average.
The month of July will have two important cattle reports to monitor. The first is...
Meat Market Update | Wholesale prices continue downward trend
Boxed beef movement slowed and wholesale prices dipped slightly. But the market remains resilient.
Ed Czerwien, BEEF Magazine
Jul 09, 2019
The weekly average Choice cutout, which includes all types of sales including the daily Choice cutout, was $216.08, 49 cents lower even though the daily Choice cutout was almost $2 dollars lower the same week.
There were 5,832 total loads sold for the week, which was 1,023 loads lower than the previous week. That's a typical seasonal holiday load count.
Taking a look at the major primal cuts, the weekly average Choice rib primal was $4 higher again for two weeks in a row, regaining most of what it lost two weeks ago. The price jump occurred even though the daily Choice rib primal dropped quite a bit during the week and loin primal was $3 lower. The weekly average Choice chuck was steady and round primal was $2 lower.
document, plus audio [4:10 min.]