Pork Commentary

 

Jim Long, President-CEO, Genesus Inc.

July 9, 2019

 

NPIC Conference

 

On Monday we spoke at the National Pork Industry Conference (NPIC) in Wisconsin Dells, Wisconsin, U.S.A. There are about 960 registered at the conference. We spoke about Global Hog Markets. Our premise is that right now the USA-Canada market depends on when and if China begins large shipments of pork to China.

 

In Our talk we pointed out why we know and pay attention to China. Genesus in the last three years has exported more than 35% of all breeding stock shipped to China from anywhere in the world.  It’s follow the money trail. It’s our vested interest to pay attention to when the massive airlift will begin to restock Chinas breeding herd. Currently we have several 747 shipments of breeding stock on hold until Chinas customs feel comfortable to import.

 

Quotes from Others on China ASF situation

 

“Our budget is down 4 million hogs for this year due to ASF” – very big China Producer-Owner

 

“We had 70,000 sows, now 30,000. We are in feed business. We just had conference call with many other Chinese feed companies. Feed production down 60%.” – Owner-Producer

 

“With government inspecting and testing storage stocks for ASF beginning July 1, storage is being emptied.”- Producer-Packer

 

“We had 15,000 sows, now we have none!” - Producer

 

“Had 60,000 sows in North-East now 6,000.” – Producer

 

“There will be little increase in chicken production short term. There are no breeders. Breeders have not been expanded last 2 years.” – large chicken producer

 

“Province had 1.6 million sows, now there are 160,000.” – Vaccine Plasma Rep

 

“I expect market hogs will reach 30 rmb kg ($2.00 U.S. LB.) liveweight – Owner-Producer

 

“We don’t think the hog price will exceed 23 rmb kg, ($1.50 U.S. LB.) liveweight as the government will bring in pork imports to try to hold price lower.”

 

Hog prices in U.S. and Canada are under siege, it’s discouraging and financially hurting.  Maybe, we are the boy that see’s the Pony in the Manure Pile. Maybe, but we can’t ignore what we hear and see!

 

genesus.com