Navigating blindfolded through market knowns and unknowns
In times like these, I think it is important to sort data into buckets of “known” versus “unknown” to aid in establishing equilibrium.
Joseph Kerns, National Hog Farmer
Jul 08, 2019
If you feel you have been riding a roller coaster blindfolded for the past several months, you are not alone. This market has offered enough pitch changes and loops to keep a ballerina off balance. Considering the impact of tariffs on our No. 1 pork customer, the trade dispute with the world’s most populous country and one of the largest importer of agricultural goods, the unprecedented late planting of corn and soybeans in the United States, the impact of African swine fever — both real and potential — to pork prices, the confusion regarding planted acres and subsequent yield potential, and the unprecedented increase in hog marketings in a year-over-year comparison (June), it’s no wonder that your stomach is unsettled.
In times like these, I think it is important to sort data into buckets of “known” versus “unknown” to aid in establishing equilibrium. Let’s start with the unknown since it is normally the cause of the most consternation.
We do not know the ultimate impact of ASF on the market. A few
months ago, I boldly proclaimed that there was no way summer hogs would trade
at $80. I postulated that we would either be at $30 if we were befallen by ASF
in the United States or $130 if we were clean and the world demand came
crashing on our shores. Oops. The wild swing one way or the other never
materialized. Perhaps we have learned (humbled?) to be more respectful to the
market and never predict price and time together. Everything we read and learn
still point to a major shortage of pork around the globe and a potential bounty
for exporters that remain disease-free, it is just taking longer to appear than
many thought, this author included.
We do not know what final corn production will be. We never
“know” at this time of year, but we generally have a clue. The USDA threw us a
major curveball in the June planting report by indicating substantially more
planted acres than was expected. This was met with utterances of, “No way!” by
the trade, only to be followed an hour after the report was released with a coy
memo from the USDA indicating a resurvey was to be taken. The initial release
of the data likely did a huge disservice to the users of the data, but let’s
cut them some slack for a moment. By law, they had to release the survey as
generated by the information, it literally would have taken a congressional act
to usurp the publication of the data. They will stand by the accuracy of the
statistics as collected, they just know it was not accurate in reality — hence,
the resurvey. This, essentially, renders the July World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates report meaningless and puts significantly more importance on
the August data when the acres and objective yield information will both hit on
· Even without a formal trade agreement, it appears that we are playing nicer with our trading partners. Just as I cautioned that it has been dangerous to predict the hog market value in time and price, estimating a timeline for the completion of trade agreements and their subsequent impact is equally difficult. We simply do not know when potentially beneficial trade pacts will be reached.
Now let’s shift to what we know or at least think we know.
· The massive hog marketings in June (8%-plus more than 2018) are in the rear-view mirror and the next categories of hogs in inventory are much less disruptive. This should allow a little more confidence that we will not be overrun with production numbers for the balance of July and into August. To be sure, we are not going to run out of animals. Production has been exceptional, as noted by Steve Meyer in his column last week. The onset of warm weather should aid in slowing down weight gain after an incredibly mild start to the summer…