[Tues]: Cattle markets made mixed but mostly negative closes Monday, failing to follow through on Friday’s efforts, according to Stewart-Peterson. The average dressed steer weights for the week ending June 22 came in at 854 pounds, five pounds heavier than the previous week but still down from last year’s figure… [Mon]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were steady to weak… Choice fell 21 cents… Select went down 39 cents… There were no reported negotiated cash sales in the Nebraska or Iowa/Minnesota markets today. Cash trade was “sluggish to start the week,” Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said… The beef market weakness “does not bode well for the cash market outlook,” The Hightower Report said…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Tue 7/9/2019 9:24 AM
Cattle - Cattle markets made mixed but mostly negative closes Monday, failing to follow through on Friday’s efforts, according to Stewart-Peterson. The average dressed steer weights for the week ending June 22 came in at 854 pounds, five pounds heavier than the previous week but still down from last year’s figure. “The lighter weights are positive and show that producers are keeping animals current, but a 5 pound jump in a week's time is a bit much,” they said.
There could be some profit-taking in the cattle market this week as traders react to last week’s trade, according to Blue Line Futures.
Traders may see cattle as overbought
There was pressure on the beef market early this week as traders tried to determine if last week’s rally was overdone, according to the Hightower Report.
For the moment, the bull camp for hogs is still hanging in limbo, said Blue Line Futures. If weakness continues today it is possible prices could run back towards the June 24 lows for hogs.
Mon 7/8/2019 4:14 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were steady to weak on moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, USDA said.
Choice fell 21 cents to $217.46/cwt.
Select went down 39 cents to $194.41.
There were no reported negotiated cash sales in the Nebraska or Iowa/Minnesota markets today.
Cash trade was “sluggish to start the week,” Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. The market is concerned by some weak beef values, and demand is going to take the focal point of traders as there are hopes it can add some strength.
“We always say the bottom is more of a process rather than a point, and I think it’s safe to say the process has started,” Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said. He called the trade over the last month “pretty constructive” and he feels the market has potential to the upside.
Hogs unable to find demand support
Hogs had a mixed day and are an “anchor” on the livestock complex, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. She cited uncertainty in exports and that “demand is just really not there. … I don’t see the market selling off that hard, but still, hanging around on these lows could be cumbersome.”
The beef market weakness “does not bode well for the cash market outlook,” The Hightower Report said. “Ideas that the rally last week was overdone with beef prices in a downtrend and down to the lowest level since Feb. 20 helped to pressure.”
Crop conditions remain steady
Today’s Crop Progress report, released after the close of trade today, showed corn condition as slightly improved. It received an overall 57% good/excellent rating, a bump up from the 56% number last week.
Soybeans are sitting at only 96% planted, still behind the 5-year average, with a slight decrease in condition. The current crop was rated at 53% good/excellent, down from 54% last week. At this point last year, the crop had a 71% good/excellent rating.
John Payne of Daniel’s Trading said the report was “somewhat surprising,” as they expected an increase of two percentage points for both corn and beans. He said with the lower than expected conditions, it should give the market some support overnight. “Whether or not that gets follow-through, that remains to be seen,” he said.
After a stronger overnight showing, corn was unable to capitalize into a rally today, only gaining around 1 cent for the upcoming contracts. Kathleen Murphy of CHS Hedging said traders are “exiting out of positions in order to lock in profits before the report on Thursday.”
Planalytics lowered their corn yield estimate to 166.4 bushels per acre, down a full bushel from their previous estimate, The Hightower Report said.
It was a choppy trade day, but the hot and moisture-free forecast ended up supporting the market slightly, Kathleen Murphy of CHS Hedging said. Exports came in below expectations for the week, but held steady from last week’s number.
A firmer soybean market came ahead of today’s crop progress report, which came out after the close. Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said after the questions regarding the June acreage report, there are many traders who may not respond as dramatically to the upcoming WASDE report.
Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said there is harvest pressure in the wheat market. “If we get some momentum in the corn and soybean market, that could spill over to some positive money flow for wheat, but we don’t think it has the ability to rally on its own,” he said.
Yields are still being reported “above expectations” in the western plains, according to Kathleen Murphy of CHS Hedging. Exports were a bit lower this week, but “still better than the average estimates needed to reach the USDA’s 900 mln bushel projection.”