In this file:
· World Weather Inc. Says Early Frost, Freeze Very Likely
· Analyst calls totality of prevented planting the 10 million-acre question
· Making Sense of the USDA’s Planted Acres Report
World Weather Inc. Says Early Frost, Freeze Very Likely
By Tyne Morgan, US Farm Report, Host
via AgWeb - JULY 3, 2019
A wild weather year brought excessive moisture to many areas of the U.S., resulting in planting occurring at an historically slow pace. The cooler and wetter than normal weather didn’t seem to budge throughout May, a weather pattern Drew Lerner of Weather World, Inc. said was forecast this winter.
“We use the lunar cycle, an 18 year repeating pattern, and it was very obvious,” said Lerner. “We had three analog years, and every one of them had the same wet bias and an alternating cool and warm bias to it.”
He said one factor his forecast didn’t show is the repeating monsoon-like rains farmers had to endure this spring.
“That's kind of a byproduct of all those warmer ocean water temperature and atmospheric conditions that we have right now,” he said. “There's so much more moisture in the atmosphere. Every time a cooler mass comes along, you know, we get these bigger rains.”
As the calendar turned to late June, the heat started to show up. Heat and humidity finally providing needed heat to the late planted crop, but Lerner said don’t get used to the heat sticking around this year.
“This whole cycle that created the wet bias is a repeating pattern that's not going to go away; it's going to stay with us,” said Lerner. “We'll go through some brief periods of warmer weather, and then we're going to cool down again and then we'll go back into the warmth again, but most of the time, we're going to be cooler bias.”
A cooler than normal pattern Lerner said occurs when the Solar and Lunar cycle are both at play. The scenario creates cooler conditions.
“It wouldn't surprise me at all to see your average temperature in July and August both be a little below normal, although we'll have some brief moments of warmer weather intertwined in there,” he said. “We will end up with degree day accumulations that might be a little bit below average, especially in August.”
Lerner said the best-case scenario is a normal amount of heat comes through the second half of summer, but he says growing degree day accumulations will end the season below normal.
With cooler than normal conditions, what about an early frost or freeze? Lerner said that’s his biggest concern right now.
“At best we're going to have a normal frost and freeze,” said Lerner. “I do not see this growing season being extended, especially in the northern parts of the Midwest. The odds are really high that we're going to end up with the northern areas finishing out early.”
Farm Journal Agronomist Ken Ferrie said an early frost or freeze can take 30 to 40 bushels off crop yield in areas. However, there could be some areas that don’t see the cold fall bring a sudden end to the crop. Lerner thinks the Ohio river Basin and lower Missouri River Valley could see a longer growing season than counterparts to the north. He said the fall heat and later than normal freeze that growers have become used to the past few years is not likely.
“All this comes out of this repeating cycle that I mentioned before: 1965, 1983 and 2001, or a part of that,” said Lerner...
more, including video report [6:55 min.]
Analyst calls totality of prevented planting the 10 million-acre question
By Mark Dorenkamp, Brownfield
July 3, 2019
A farm management analyst calls the totality of prevented planting in the U.S. this year the 10 million-acre question.
Kent Thiesse with MinnStar Bank in southern Minnesota says he’s not sure if anyone has a good handle on how many acres will be enrolled.
“Based on the USDA report numbers that we got first of all through the WASDE report in the middle of June, and then the end of June in the acreage report, it’s kind of left a lot of people guessing.”
What is somewhat clear, he says, is where the most prevented planting acres will be.
“As we go across southern Minnesota, there is a fair amount of Prevent Plant acres, but not huge chunks. Certainly out further into southwest Minnesota, parts of South Dakota, northwest Iowa, and then the Eastern Corn Belt, a lot bigger chunks.”
Thiesse anticipates total prevented planting acres will fall somewhere between 7 and 10 million acres...
more, including audio [11:38 min.]
Making Sense of the USDA’s Planted Acres Report
By Bob Linneman, Successful Farming
Agriculture.com - 7/3/2019
The USDA report last week was one of the better curveballs we have seen in the past few years. Traders were expecting to see corn acres near 86.6 million. The USDA reported corn acres at 91.7 million acres. How could this be close at all?
Well, the USDA did say that the 91.7 was acres planted and intended to plant. So, the report last week felt more like a combination of the March planting intentions report and the June planted acreage report. The extremely wet spring was noted as reason the USDA will resurvey planted acres. Those results will be announced in the August 12 monthly supply and demand report.
Corn prices had a wild few minutes just after the crop report was released last Friday. Prices had a 31¢ range in the first five minutes. The bearishness of the acres was enough that corn actually traded limit down for a short time.
The holiday-shortened week was slightly concerning...