[Mon]: “If China pig prices remain in a strong uptrend, imports should continue to expand,” The Hightower Report said… A Cargill spokesperson said they believe the estimated 24% drop in the Chinese hog herd is a conservative estimate, Allendale said. “He says it may be a decade before China recovers from African Swine Fever outbreak,” Allendale said… [Fri]: National carcass base down $1.32… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $1.69… “The market has an ample supply of pork,” CHS Hedging said. They noted that futures were relatively unchanged for the week overall, as the U.S. deals with one of its highest June inventories since 1964… Word is that China is “unlikely” to purchase U.S. products as a goodwill gesture, The Hightower Report said. That continued a “weak trend” for pork products, which sparked selling…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Mon 7/8/2019 8:57 AM

 

Lean hogs - “If China pig prices remain in a strong uptrend, imports should continue to expand,” The Hightower Report said. “If U.S. tariffs are cut, U.S. exports could really take off.”

 

However, there are continued reports that China is “unlikely to buy U.S. agricultural products as a goodwill gesture,” which The Hightower Report said helped spark aggressive selling last week.

 

With new case, expectations for ASF worsen

 

A Cargill spokesperson said they believe the estimated 24% drop in the Chinese hog herd is a conservative estimate, Allendale said. “He says it may be a decade before China recovers from African Swine Fever outbreak,” Allendale said.

 

Another case of African swine fever was confirmed in China, in the region of Guangxi. This marks the second case for that region in a week, Allendale said.

 

Fri 7/5/2019 4:17 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base down $1.32to $65.82/cwt.

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $1.69at $73.17/cwt.

 

“The market has an ample supply of pork,” CHS Hedging said. They noted that futures were relatively unchanged for the week overall, as the U.S. deals with one of its highest June inventories since 1964.

 

“The market appeared to be gaining some traction early in the week, but on Wednesday posted a reversal and then saw follow through today as futures pushed back underneath the 10-day moving average,” Stewart-Peterson said. They noted it is hard to argue for hog prices to move lower when it “looks like world supplies are on the decline due to African swine fever,” but noted that there have been logistical problems as well as large daily slaughters to plague U.S. prices.

 

China "unlikely" to make goodwill purchase

 

Word is that China is “unlikely” to purchase U.S. products as a goodwill gesture, The Hightower Report said. That continued a “weak trend” for pork products, which sparked selling today.

 

Today’s buying left the August cattle contract up nearly 265 points for the week, after early selling today, The Hightower Report said. With a “steady/firm” cash market, the cattle market is staying well supported, they said.

 

Yield questions remain unanswered

 

Mike Zuzolo of Global Analytics said a recent trip he took across parts of the Midwest “made a good impression” on him. He said he was seeing some “really nice looking corn,” but said it’s not a uniform crop. “I wonder what kind of yield we can get,” he said.

 

Next week will see a pair of reports, with the weekly crop progress and conditions report releasing on Monday and WASDE on Thursday.

 

Corn

 

After a hard drop on the day, corn prices “clawed their way back,” Michaela White of CHS Hedging said. “The September 2019 through July 2020 contracts closed on a positive note to finish out the week.”

 

“The bulls remain in charge as we continue to see improving basis levels suggesting that either farmers are tight fisted, supplies are tighter than anticipated, or end users are shopping aggressively to get inventory in hand,” Stewart-Peterson said. “News is rather scarce and volume is somewhat light, but today's claw back again is testament to a corn market that seems to be finding buying interest on price dips.”

 

Soybeans

 

Michaela White of CHS Hedging blamed profit taking as the main culprit in soybeans falling today. “Improving weather conditions and ample supplies of soybeans provided additional pressure,” she said.

 

Soybean trade is down as the trade war with China is continuing, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. She noted that with African swine fever, and the concerns of the long ranging impacts of a trade war are causing worries about demand.

 

Wheat

 

Wheat is also dealing with ample supplies, combined with “a lack of decent demand,” Michaela White of CHS Hedging said. With a stronger U.S. dollar today, that is said to play a “significant part” for how U.S. wheat is priced in the world market.

 

The wheat export market is “sluggish,” according to Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. Despite support on ideas the European crop conditions aren’t as good, the market continues to be unsure of wheat. “Monday will give us a little more direction,” she said.

 

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