[Mon]: The Hightower Report said the market will need help from “much stronger beef prices” to see a follow-through upward, eyeing support for August cattle around $105.20… [Fri]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were weak to lower… Choice fell $1.58… Select went down 56 cents… In negotiated cash sales in Iowa-Minnesota, the USDA reported 600 head sold dressed at $180, with 195 head sold live at $113. In Nebraska, 116 head sold dressed at $181 with no live sales… With weather heating up across the country, Stewart-Peterson said there are expectations of tighter inventory coming up, combined with lighter animals. That is giving support to the market, despite it being later than normal… Today’s buying left the August cattle contract up nearly 265 points for the week, after early selling today, The Hightower Report said. With a “steady/firm” cash market, the cattle market is staying well supported, they said…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Mon 7/8/2019 8:57 AM

 

Cattle - The Hightower Report said the market will need help from “much stronger beef prices” to see a follow-through upward, eyeing support for August cattle around $105.20.

 

They said last week’s rally came on higher trade, but “it will take much better action for the boxed-beef market to expect much follow-through to the upside.

 

However, while eyeing February cattle, The Hightower Report said there is “impressive technical action” with thoughts it could trade up to $119.15.

 

With new case, expectations for ASF worsen

 

A Cargill spokesperson said they believe the estimated 24% drop in the Chinese hog herd is a conservative estimate, Allendale said. “He says it may be a decade before China recovers from African Swine Fever outbreak,” Allendale said.

 

Another case of African swine fever was confirmed in China, in the region of Guangxi. This marks the second case for that region in a week, Allendale said.

 

Fri 7/5/2019 4:17 PM

 

Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were weak to lower on light demand and moderate to heavy offerings, USDA said.

 

Choice fell $1.58 to $217.67/cwt.

Select went down 56 cents to $194.80.

 

In negotiated cash sales in Iowa-Minnesota, the USDA reported 600 head sold dressed at $180, with 195 head sold live at $113. In Nebraska, 116 head sold dressed at $181 with no live sales.

 

“The boxed beef choice select spread has widened out considerably, reaching a spread of $24,” CHS Hedging said. “This indicates a strong demand for high quality beef as the choice has been holding its value while the select values have slipped.” CHS Hedging also added that feeder cattle has been volatile in conjunction with the corn market.

 

With weather heating up across the country, Stewart-Peterson said there are expectations of tighter inventory coming up, combined with lighter animals. That is giving support to the market, despite it being later than normal.

 

China "unlikely" to make goodwill purchase

 

Word is that China is “unlikely” to purchase U.S. products as a goodwill gesture, The Hightower Report said. That continued a “weak trend” for pork products, which sparked selling today.

 

Today’s buying left the August cattle contract up nearly 265 points for the week, after early selling today, The Hightower Report said. With a “steady/firm” cash market, the cattle market is staying well supported, they said.

 

Yield questions remain unanswered

 

Mike Zuzolo of Global Analytics said a recent trip he took across parts of the Midwest “made a good impression” on him. He said he was seeing some “really nice looking corn,” but said it’s not a uniform crop. “I wonder what kind of yield we can get,” he said.

 

Next week will see a pair of reports, with the weekly crop progress and conditions report releasing on Monday and WASDE on Thursday.

 

Corn

 

After a hard drop on the day, corn prices “clawed their way back,” Michaela White of CHS Hedging said. “The September 2019 through July 2020 contracts closed on a positive note to finish out the week.”

 

“The bulls remain in charge as we continue to see improving basis levels suggesting that either farmers are tight fisted, supplies are tighter than anticipated, or end users are shopping aggressively to get inventory in hand,” Stewart-Peterson said. “News is rather scarce and volume is somewhat light, but today's claw back again is testament to a corn market that seems to be finding buying interest on price dips.”

 

Soybeans

 

Michaela White of CHS Hedging blamed profit taking as the main culprit in soybeans falling today. “Improving weather conditions and ample supplies of soybeans provided additional pressure,” she said.

 

Soybean trade is down as the trade war with China is continuing, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. She noted that with African swine fever, and the concerns of the long ranging impacts of a trade war are causing worries about demand.

 

Wheat

 

Wheat is also dealing with ample supplies, combined with “a lack of decent demand,” Michaela White of CHS Hedging said. With a stronger U.S. dollar today, that is said to play a “significant part” for how U.S. wheat is priced in the world market.

 

The wheat export market is “sluggish,” according to Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. Despite support on ideas the European crop conditions aren’t as good, the market continues to be unsure of wheat. “Monday will give us a little more direction,” she said.

 

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