Swine Fever in China Among Risks to Food Markets -FAO/OECD


Reporting by Gus Trompiz, editing by Louise Heavens and Jane Merriman, Reuters

via Successful Farming/Agriculture.com - 7/8/2019


PARIS, July 8 (Reuters) - The spread of a deadly pig disease in China that has disrupted the world's biggest pork market is one of the major risks to a well-supplied global agricultural sector, the FAO and OECD said on Monday.


African swine fever was highlighted in the FAO and OECD's annual agricultural outlook for 2019-2028, which forecast broadly stable agricultural markets in the coming decade as productivity gains help output to keep pace with rising demand for food, livestock feed and crop-based biofuels.


China is grappling with African swine fever, which has spread across much of the country in the past year. There is no cure or vaccine for the disease, often fatal for pigs although harmless for humans.


The FAO/OECD forecast a 5% fall in Chinese pork output this year, while imports were forecast to rise to almost 2 million tonnes from an average 1.6 million tonnes per year in 2016-2018.


Pork production was then projected to recover in 2020 to 2018 levels, before resuming a longer-term growth path, supported by robust underlying demand, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said in their annual 10-year outlook.


But African swine fever's impact was still unclear, compared with the spread of the fall armyworm crop pest in China and other parts of Asia which was seen as manageable using pesticides, the organisations said.


"Measures to contain the outbreak are assumed to moderately depress global pork production in the short term," they said...