In this file:
· Corn Weather Woes May Be Passed on to U.S. Livestock Farmers
· WASDE: Corn Production Trimmed by 1.4 Billion Bushels
Corn Weather Woes May Be Passed on to U.S. Livestock Farmers
By Michael Hirtzer and Lydia Mulvany, Bloomberg
June 11, 2019
The prospect of tighter American corn supply is bad news for livestock and poultry farmers who feed the yellow grain to their animals.
Chicago hog futures dipped to a three-month low on Tuesday while cattle prices eased after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said historically rainy weather would lead to a smaller corn crop than previously thought.
Higher corn prices -- futures rose more than 3% on Tuesday -- may prompt farmers to send animals to slaughter rather than fattening them up, which will increase supplies in the short term, said Brian Hoops, senior analyst at Midwest Market Solutions in Springfield, Missouri.
“Production growth for livestock and poultry is expected to be slower as producers respond to higher feed costs,” the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board said in a report. “Pork production is lowered from last month primarily as the pace of slaughter to date has been slower than expected.”
The USDA outlook contributed to the drop in hog futures, after prices surged on Monday, according to Craig VanDyke, risk management consultant at Top Third Ag Marketing...
WASDE: Corn Production Trimmed by 1.4 Billion Bushels
via FarmJournal's AgPro - June 11, 2019
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2019 red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month as lower forecast beef, pork, and turkey production more than offset higher broiler production. The decline in beef production largely reflects lower steer and heifer slaughter in the second half of the year. Forecast pork production is lowered from last month primarily as the pace of slaughter to date has been slower than expected. The broiler production forecast is raised on recent hatchery data and expected heavier bird weights. Turkey production is lowered slightly on production data to date.
The 2020 red meat and poultry production forecast is lowered from the previous month. Production growth for livestock and poultry is expected to be slower as producers respond to higher feed costs. The beef production forecast is reduced on lower expected steer and heifer slaughter as incentives to add weight on pasture slows the pace of feedlot placements.
The beef import forecast is raised for 2019 on recent trade data, but the export forecast is reduced from the previous month on the current pace of beef exports to a number of trading partners. No change is made to the 2020 beef trade forecasts. Pork export forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are raised from the previous month, largely reflecting the removal of Mexico’s tariffs on U.S. pork products in late May. The 2019 broiler export forecast is reduced slightly on recent trade data; no change is made to the 2020 broiler export forecast. The turkey export forecast is unchanged for 2019 and 2020.
For 2019, the cattle, hog, and broiler price forecasts are reduced from last month, reflecting current price weakness. The 2019 turkey price forecast is raised slightly on higher second-quarter prices. For 2020, cattle, broiler, and egg price forecasts are reduced on continued demand weakness. The 2020 hog price forecast remains unchanged as slower production growth and stronger exports support prices. The 2020 turkey price forecast is unchanged…
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for increased beginning stocks and imports, sharply lower production, reduced feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Beginning stocks are up reflecting a 100-million-bushel decline in projected exports for 2018/19 to 2.2 billion bushels, based on current outstanding sales and reduced U.S. price competitiveness. Corn production for 2019/20 is forecast to decline 1.4 billion bushels to 13.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2015/16. Unprecedented planting delays observed through early June are expected to prevent some plantings and reduce yield prospects. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. With sharply lower supplies, use is projected to decline 425 million bushels to 14.3 billion, based on reductions to feed and residual use and exports. With supplies falling more than use, ending stocks are projected to decline 810 million bushels to 1.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2013/14. The season-average farm price is raised 50 cents to $3.80 per bushel.
This month’s 2019/20 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, increased trade and lower stocks relative to last month. Argentina corn production is raised on increased area with higher prices. Canada corn production is lowered on reductions to both area and yield with planting delays in Ontario. Russia corn production is higher based on government data indicating larger-than-expected planted area. Barley production is lowered for the EU reflecting a reduction for Spain. For 2018/19, Brazil corn production is raised based on the latest government statistics.
Major global trade changes for 2019/20 include larger forecast corn exports for Argentina and Russia, with a partly offsetting reduction for Zambia. For 2018/19, exports are raised for Brazil and Argentina for the local marketing year beginning in March 2019 based on higher-than-expected shipments during May. Foreign corn ending stocks are lowered from last month mostly reflecting reductions for Argentina, Brazil, Canada, and the EU.