In this file:
· WASDE: Corn Production Trimmed by 1.4 Billion Bushels
· USDA Set to Adjust U.S. Soy Numbers in July Report - Chief Economist
· USDA Confirms GE Wheat Was Discovered In Washington Field
WASDE: Corn Production Trimmed by 1.4 Billion Bushels
via FarmJournal's AgPro - June 11, 2019
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2019 red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month as lower forecast beef, pork, and turkey production more than offset higher broiler production. The decline in beef production largely reflects lower steer and heifer slaughter in the second half of the year. Forecast pork production is lowered from last month primarily as the pace of slaughter to date has been slower than expected. The broiler production forecast is raised on recent hatchery data and expected heavier bird weights. Turkey production is lowered slightly on production data to date.
The 2020 red meat and poultry production forecast is lowered from the previous month. Production growth for livestock and poultry is expected to be slower as producers respond to higher feed costs. The beef production forecast is reduced on lower expected steer and heifer slaughter as incentives to add weight on pasture slows the pace of feedlot placements.
The beef import forecast is raised for 2019 on recent trade data, but the export forecast is reduced from the previous month on the current pace of beef exports to a number of trading partners. No change is made to the 2020 beef trade forecasts. Pork export forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are raised from the previous month, largely reflecting the removal of Mexico’s tariffs on U.S. pork products in late May. The 2019 broiler export forecast is reduced slightly on recent trade data; no change is made to the 2020 broiler export forecast. The turkey export forecast is unchanged for 2019 and 2020.
For 2019, the cattle, hog, and broiler price forecasts are reduced from last month, reflecting current price weakness. The 2019 turkey price forecast is raised slightly on higher second-quarter prices. For 2020, cattle, broiler, and egg price forecasts are reduced on continued demand weakness. The 2020 hog price forecast remains unchanged as slower production growth and stronger exports support prices. The 2020 turkey price forecast is unchanged…
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for increased beginning stocks and imports, sharply lower production, reduced feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Beginning stocks are up reflecting a 100-million-bushel decline in projected exports for 2018/19 to 2.2 billion bushels, based on current outstanding sales and reduced U.S. price competitiveness. Corn production for 2019/20 is forecast to decline 1.4 billion bushels to 13.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2015/16. Unprecedented planting delays observed through early June are expected to prevent some plantings and reduce yield prospects. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. With sharply lower supplies, use is projected to decline 425 million bushels to 14.3 billion, based on reductions to feed and residual use and exports. With supplies falling more than use, ending stocks are projected to decline 810 million bushels to 1.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2013/14. The season-average farm price is raised 50 cents to $3.80 per bushel.
This month’s 2019/20 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, increased trade and lower stocks relative to last month. Argentina corn production is raised on increased area with higher prices. Canada corn production is lowered on reductions to both area and yield with planting delays in Ontario. Russia corn production is higher based on government data indicating larger-than-expected planted area. Barley production is lowered for the EU reflecting a reduction for Spain. For 2018/19, Brazil corn production is raised based on the latest government statistics.
Major global trade changes for 2019/20 include larger forecast corn exports for Argentina and Russia, with a partly offsetting reduction for Zambia. For 2018/19, exports are raised for Brazil and Argentina for the local marketing year beginning in March 2019 based on higher-than-expected shipments during May. Foreign corn ending stocks are lowered from last month mostly reflecting reductions for Argentina, Brazil, Canada, and the EU.
USDA Set to Adjust U.S. Soy Numbers in July Report - Chief Economist
By Nigel Hunt, Successful Farming
Agriculture.com - 6/12/2019
LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Agriculture is set to revise its U.S. soybean forecasts next month after leaving area and yield projections unchanged in a monthly report issued on Tuesday, USDA chief economist Robert Johansson said.
USDA's monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report cut corn area and yields following severe delays to plantings this season.
"I think conventional wisdom is that some of the corn acres would translate into bean acres and that translates into lower soybean prices," Johansson said on the sidelines of a reception organised by the International Grains Council.
The U.S. soybean area was kept at 84.6 million acres and yield at 49.5 bushels an acre.
"I think we didn't have information to go on right now to change those soybean numbers. I think we will see adjustments being made to the soybean crop in the July WASDE," he said, adding it was a later planted crop than corn.
USDA on Tuesday raised its forecast for the average soybean farm price to $8.25 a bushel from $8.10.
The U.S. corn area was cut to 89.8 million acres from a previous forecast of 92.8 million, while the corn yield was downwardly revised to 166 bushels per acre from 176 bushels.
Johansson noted that the planting and emergence of the corn crop had been delayed.
"That is going to push the main grain filling period for corn into the hottest part of the summer," he said, adding that typically could affect overall yield.
Johansson said an expected reduction in soybean demand from China linked to an outbreak of African swine fever in the world's biggest hog herd was now "built into the market".
Soybean meal is a major feed ingredient for hogs.
He noted that Rabobank had forecast China's pork output would fall by 30 percent, which would dampen soybean prices.
Soybean crush numbers in China have, however, so far remained relatively constant, he added...
USDA Confirms GE Wheat Was Discovered In Washington Field
by Sonja Begemann, Greenbook
June 11, 2019
This past week USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed it discovered genetically engineered (GE) wheat in Washington state. It was found in an unplanted field and is resistant to glyphosate.
While this discovery is unexpected, there is no evidence any GE wheat has entered the food supply. USDA is working with state, industry and trading partners to provide timely and transparent information about these findings.
To date, there are no GE wheat varieties for sale or in commercial production in the U.S. as USDA hasn’t deregulated any GE wheat.
Samples of the wheat plants from Washington were sent to USDA’s Federal Grain Inspection Service lab in Kansas City, Mo., and to a USDA Agricultural Research lab in Pullman, Wash. for testing and confirmation.
“We cannot speculate or comment about any potential market reactions until we learn more from APHIS and have a chance to discuss the situation in more detail with overseas customers,” U.S. Wheat Associates and National Association of Wheat Growers said in a joint news release...