African Swine Fever Affects China's Pork Consumption

 

Food Market/Urner Barry

June 11, 2019

 

China’s pork consumption has dropped by 10% to 15%, year-to-date, by our estimates, driven by food safety concerns. The level of consumption change varies greatly between the different distribution channels. Looking forward, and reflecting on the current situation and trends, it is quite possible we have seen the ‘peak’ of pork consumption.

 

Pork Consumption in China has Dropped by 10% to 15%

 

The losses in China’s pig herd are very difficult to estimate – estimated losses range from 20% to 70%. Data from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) has the sow herd down by 22% in the year to April – this is one of the most optimistic estimates we have seen. However, hog and pork prices struggled in April and May, after a brief surge in March, raising significant questions...

 

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