[Fri]: Lean hog futures have been experiencing the effects of fund trading over the past few weeks. The recent high export sales to China have not provided support to the market that would generally be expected from the news… The overall export pace for U.S. pork remains impressive, but it has been slower than expected demand domestically… [Thurs]: National carcass base down 73 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 71 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 18 cents… A lack of news from trade talks with Mexico are seen as bearish, says Stewart-Peterson. If tariffs are levied on Mexico Monday, increased trade tensions with the top customer of U.S. pork would bring more bearishness to the hog market…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Fri 6/7/2019 8:41 AM
Lean hogs - Lean hog futures have been experiencing the effects of fund trading over the past few weeks. The recent high export sales to China have not provided support to the market that would generally be expected from the news, according to Michaela White of CHS Hedging.
The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 18 cents at $83.25 on Thursday afternoon, according to Brugler Marketing & Management.
Traders embrace meatless burgers
Beyond Meat Inc. and its new meatless burger rivals are counting on going head to head with meat inside stores, Allendale said. They avoid terms such as vegan or vegetarian, and request retail stores do not place their products in the supermarket vegan aisle where non-meat eaters traditionally buy other plant-based alternatives. Investors are bullish on the business model, boosting Beyond Meat's valuation to more than $6 billion from $1.5 billion when it went public on May 2.
The overall export pace for U.S. pork remains impressive, but it has been slower than expected demand domestically, which has kept the market in a downward trend since the April highs, according to The Hightower Report.
Thu 6/6/2019 4:56 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base down 73 cents to $75.63/cwt.
National live rose 22 cents to $59.78
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 71 cents to $76.65
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 18 cents at $83.25/cwt.
July lean hogs were up 7 cents to close at $86.35. Hightower says pork cutout values saw considerable strength Thursday. April pork exports were down 4.3 percent from a year ago, but are still the fifth highest on record. Exports to China and Hong Kong posted the highest monthly total since May 2017.
A lack of news from trade talks with Mexico are seen as bearish, says Stewart-Peterson. If tariffs are levied on Mexico Monday, increased trade tensions with the top customer of U.S. pork would bring more bearishness to the hog market.
Slow exports drag on markets
Sluggish pork export sales to Mexico helped foster a bearish tone in the hog market today. The Hightower Report says August hogs closed lower today with choppy trade. Total export sales for the week ending May 30 came in higher than the previous four week average, despite sales to Mexico being substantially lower.
Drier forecasts should help boost beef demand, says Stewart-Peterson. This could take time due to a backlog of beef in the pipeline, which should also put pressure on retail prices. Beef values have been choppy to lower in recent days.
Grains start to reverse course
July corn prices continued to push higher today, despite some weak export news. Hightower says it could be an instance of “sell the rumor and buy the fact.” As of May 30, cumulative corn sales are well below the five-year average. Rumors persist about a large Mexican purchase of corn from Brazil.
Soybean exports were above projections, says Barchart.com. Over 510,000 MT of old crop beans sold in the final week of May. New crop sales of over 73,000 MT were also reported. Soybean meal exports set a monthly record in April.
Hightower says early corn price weakness could be tied to a more optimistic weather forecast for several key corn producing states, including Iowa, northern Illinois, Indiana and southern Minnesota. Planting progress continues to lag in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Yields in Iowa are estimated to be near 191 bushels per acre.
Corn futures suffered in early trading, says Stewart-Peterson, but rebounded nice late morning. December trades as low as $4.25 overnight due to better weather on the horizon. Funds sold 35,000 contracts yesterday, and are thought to be net short by 8,000.
The soybean market has found solid buyers, says Stewart-Peterson. This comes as President Trump suggested another $300 billions of tariffs on Chinese goods early this morning. Funds sold 14,000 contracts of beans yesterday, and are thought to still be short by about 106,000 contracts.
July beans closed down slightly at $8.68 ¾, with August beans closing at $8.75 ¼. July soybean meals prices closed down, with soybean oil prices up 54 cents. Hightower says bean prices rallied to post minimal losses.
July wheat prices were up over 19 cents to close at $5.10, with September prices up 16 cents. Hightower says markets pulled higher on weather concerns in the Black Sea region, as well as some areas of Canada. July wheat prices both gained in Chicago and Kansas City, with spring wheat prices move up 18 cents in Minneapolis.
Barchart.com says July wheat in Chicago is re-testing its 10 and 100-day moving average resistance levels, as is July wheat in Kansas City. July spring wheat is finally back above its 10 and 100-day moving average resistance levels.