In this file:


·         Trump says tariffs on Mexico will be imposed MONDAY after a breakdown in talks, despite an increase in military and police presence south of the border to stop the surge of migrants

·         Trump Tariffs Put One In Five Mexican Corporations “In Trouble”

·         Hope grows for deal to avoid U.S. tariffs on Mexican goods




Trump says tariffs on Mexico will be imposed MONDAY after a breakdown in talks, despite an increase in military and police presence south of the border to stop the surge of migrants


·         Talks between Mexican foreign minister, the US vice president, and secretary of state ended with no deal

·         Mexican delegation is in Washington to lobby administration and Congress to remove threat of tariffs

·         Mexico dispatched a special unit of 200 agents to intercept 1,000 migrants headed for the United States

·         The caravan of migrants from Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala, departed from Ciudad Hidalgo at the Mexico border on Wednesday morning and walked along a highway toward Tapachula escorted by police

·         They were met some 11 miles short of their destination by the special unit forming a blockade on the road

·         The vast majority of the migrants complied with officials' orders and boarded immigration agency vehicles

·         Others resisted and were wrested to the ground by unarmed officers or fled to the thick forest nearby

·         Parents sat on the pavement holding their children as the wept and begged authorities not to take them

·         The confrontation took place as temperatures in the region reached 91 degrees Fahrenheit (33 Celcius)

·         Several migrants fainted or collapsed from the heat and at least one man received medical attention

·         An immigration official at the site who was not authorized to speak publicly said the 600 to 800 migrants would initially be taken to an immigration detention center in Tapachula


By Megan Sheets For and Associated Press

via Daily Mail (UK) - 6 June 2019


Despite efforts by security forces south of the border to stop a migrant caravan, Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard says no agreement was reached on tariffs during Wednesday's White House meeting with Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.


Ebrard says both countries will continue talks on Thursday and try to stave off President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs on all Mexican goods flowing into the United States.


Trump, who is in Europe to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the D-Day landings, tweeted: 'Immigration discussions at the White House with representatives of Mexico have ended for the day. Progress is being made, but not nearly enough!


'Border arrests for May are at 133,000 because of Mexico & the Democrats in Congress refusing to budge on immigration reform.


'Further talks with Mexico will resume tomorrow with the understanding that, if no agreement is reached, Tariffs at the 5% level will begin on Monday, with monthly increases as per schedule.


'The higher the Tariffs go, the higher the number of companies that will move back to the USA!'


Ebrard told reporters at the Mexican embassy that 'several points were made that require a more detailed discussion'.


He said the US is proposing short-term, punitive measures, while Mexico wants more long-term decisions. He is not detailing the positions of either country.


Ebrard is the head of a Mexican delegation that has been lobbying intensely this week in Washington.


Top officials from the Mexican government, private sector and members of the country's congress make up the largest Mexican delegation dispatched to Washington since President Andrés Manuel López Obrador took office in December.


The multifaceted effort, which started just hours after Trump last week announced his intention to impose a five percent tariff on Mexico, aims to get a compromise that avoids such a duty before a Monday deadline.


The first critical moment came Wednesday, when Ebrard talked to Pompeo during a meeting presided over by Pence at the White House.


Trump himself was out of town for a state visit to Britain and D-Day commemorations, though he has fired Twitter shots from across the sea to repeat his vow to impose tariffs unless Mexico takes tougher action to halt migration across its territory to the United States.


'As a sign of good faith, Mexico should immediately stop the flow of people and drugs through their country and to our Southern Border. They can do it if they want!' he tweeted Monday.


A Mexican official familiar with the bilateral relationship said the lobbying effort includes meetings with members of Congress, think tanks, businessmen and current and former US governors.


'The goal is to gain time and try to deactivate the threat,' said the official, who agreed to discuss the effort only if not quoted by name.


The official said Mexico was in a 'Catch 22' situation because while it has stepped up immigration enforcement, it cannot brag publicly about it because of domestic political tensions.


'There is a fine line between what we can say and what we cannot,' the official said...





Trump Tariffs Put One In Five Mexican Corporations “In Trouble”


Kenneth Rapoza, Senior Contributor, Forbes

Jun 5, 2019


If President Trump makes good on his promise to slap 5% tariffs on everything Mexico sells to the U.S. starting June 10, then one in five Mexican corporations would be directly caught in the line of fire.


According to Fitch Ratings, one in five Mexican exporters would be in trouble if tariffs rose, particularly if they reached the 25% threshold in October, a timeline set by Trump for Mexico to get more aggressive with migrant caravans heading to the U.S. border.


Automakers, alcoholic beverage companies and energy companies are directly exposed to trade risk. All of them have bonds held by U.S. investors. Their ability to mitigate potential cash flow and credit implications of increasing tariffs varies company to company.


Companies with direct or indirect exposure to the U.S. export market include auto parts suppliers Rassini, Metalsa, Nemak and Grupo Kuo. With the exception of Nemak, the companies are all speculative-grade credit.


Textile company Grupo Kaltex, rated a low CC by Fitch, would also be one of the exporters facing potential financial problems should tariffs kick in next week.


Of note, Fitch said that Mexican oil firm Pemex is one of the two most vulnerable corporate bonds, followed by Kaltex.


PEMEX exported approximately 37% of its crude oil production to the Americas, the vast majority of it going to the U.S.


While it is not Pemex that pays the tariff at the ports of entry, there is always a risk that American importers will try to negotiate lower prices to make up for tariffs or cease signing new export orders, hurting future Pemex oil sales due to the higher cost of importing Mexican oil.


“The imposition of broad-based tariffs on U.S. imports of Mexican goods could have a direct negative revenue effect on 20% of (our) Mexican rated corporates,” Fitch analysts led by Jay Djemal, head of Latin America credit research wrote in a note published on Wednesday.


Depending on the duration of tariffs, and how high they go, there would also be indirect effects on Mexican companies linked to the broader macroeconomic repercussions of new trade tensions.


Blanket tariffs, if implemented, would diminish confidence in the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement, elevating and prolonging the threat of trade policy uncertainty, Fitch analysts wrote.


The U.S. economy would not go unscathed by tariffs on Mexican imports. Business sentiment would take an obvious hit if the USMCA was not ratified.


“The latest tariffs represent a ratcheting up of trade tensions and would hit growth, not just in Mexico but also in the U.S.,” says Keith Wade, chief economist for Schroders, a U.K. wealth management firm. His macro-models suggest U.S. GDP would come in 0.7 percentage points weaker in 2020 with tariffs on Mexico. “This would put the U.S. in recession,” Wade says...





Hope grows for deal to avoid U.S. tariffs on Mexican goods


By Doina Chiacu and Richard Cowan, Reuters

via Firstpost - Jun 06, 2019


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Hope grew on Wednesday for a deal to avoid the United States imposing tariffs on Mexican goods in return for Mexico doing more to halt illegal immigration but President Donald Trump said he was willing to go ahead with the import duties if he is not satisfied.


Trump said he thinks Mexico wants to reach an agreement to stop a new trade war - one that analysts believe might tip its economy into a recession - while a White House trade adviser and senior Republican U.S. lawmaker predicted that Washington might not introduce the proposed tariffs.


"Mexico can stop it. They have to stop it, otherwise we just won't be able to do business. It's a very simple thing. And I think they will stop it. I think they want to do something. I think they want to make a deal, and they sent their top people to try and do it," Trump said at the start of a visit to Ireland.


Frustrated by the lack of progress on a signature issue from his 2016 election campaign, Trump unexpectedly told Mexico last week to take a harder line on curbing illegal immigration or face 5% tariffs on all its exports to the United States starting on Monday, rising to as much as 25% later in the year.


Mexican officials will seek to persuade the White House in talks hosted by U.S. Vice President Mike Pence on Wednesday that their government has done enough to stem immigration and avoid tariffs. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said he was optimistic the talks can end in an agreement.


Trump said he would go ahead with the tariffs if Mexico does not do more to control migration.


Lopez Obrador has received an official list of U.S. products that could be subject to retaliatory tariffs if the duties threatened by Trump take effect, officials said in Mexico City...