[Weds]: Chinese importers are preparing applications for waivers on import tariffs on certain U.S. products, Steve Hyde of CHS Hedging said. “The list included beef, pork, soybeans… [Tues]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were steady to firm… Choice fell 20 cents… Select went up 34 cents… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 1,435 head sold live at $111-114, with no dressed sales. In Iowa/Minnesota, 299 head were sold live at $113-115 while 1,917 head were sold dressed at $183-185… There is a “more positive demand tilt” to the cattle market, The Hightower Report said. They said talk of the oversold condition is helping keep the market afloat, but concerns remain that the cash markets will break…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Wed 6/5/2019 8:46 AM
Cattle - Brazil said they expect China to lift its ban on Brazilian beef, despite the announcement on Monday that exports to China would stop after finding Mad Cow Disease in Mato Grosso, Allendale said. “At this point, the country believes this is an atypical case of BSE, a spontaneous event that has been noted in 20 different countries,” they said.
Live cattle’s boost up was their best day in several weeks, Blue Line Futures said, but that “isn’t saying much if you’ve been keeping score,” they said. “The bulls need to see cash stabilize to help offer support to the board. Right now the tail seems to be wagging the dog.”
11,000 animals affected by ASF in Hong Kong
The second outbreak of African swine fever in Hong Kong is involving an estimated 4,700 animals, Allendale said. Between the two reported cases in Hong Kong, more than 11,000 animas have been estimated to be affected.
Chinese importers are preparing applications for waivers on import tariffs on certain U.S. products, Steve Hyde of CHS Hedging said. “The list included beef, pork, soybeans, coal and copper scrap,” Hyde said.
Tue 6/4/2019 4:54 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were steady to firm on moderate to fairly good demand and light offerings, USDA said.
Choice fell 20 cents to $223.00/cwt.
Select went up 34 cents to $207.21.
In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 1,435 head sold live at $111-114, with no dressed sales. In Iowa/Minnesota, 299 head were sold live at $113-115 while 1,917 head were sold dressed at $183-185.
The August live contract tested resistance at $104.85 today, Ben DiCostanzo of Walsh Trading said. He said if the market breaks above that mark, the next level he is eyeing sits at $106.025. “A break down below $103.00 could see price test support at $101.625,” he said.
In Feeders, the August contract posted a strong rally finishing nearly limit up today, DiCostanzo said. “The rally, however, did nothing but stay in Friday’s trading range,” he said.
Cattle rebounds on oversold ideas
There is a “more positive demand tilt” to the cattle market, The Hightower Report said. They said talk of the oversold condition is helping keep the market afloat, but concerns remain that the cash markets will break.
Currently, the lean hog market is oversold according to Stewart-Peterson. They said the successful test of the 200-day moving average for the fourth time over the past six sessions is “impressive.”
Mexico trade dispute looms
Weakness in the wheat market pushed grain markets well away from their highs today as the U.S./Mexico trade dispute is taking center stage, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. It is expected that President Trump will be moving forward with the 5% tariff on all Mexican goods starting next weeks, while Mexico “is planning to enter into discussion on trade issues tomorrow, regardless of the tariff implication.”
While planting delays continue to be a positive for the markets, there are still questions about how the Market Facilitation payments will affect the landscape, The Hightower Report said. “A final decision on how producers can calculate their options is forthcoming from the USDA later this week,” they said.
After early reaction to yesterday’s Crop Progress report were sharply positive, news that farmers will be continuing to plant corn into next week put a stop to major gains, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. “They will go as long as the weather allows them to,” she said.
Even though many farmers continue to plant, and will as long as they can, planting the 30.5 mln acres that remain “may be a tall task,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Many conversations over the last 48 hours have indicated producers have already thrown the towel in where saturated soils exist and will go prevent plant. Of course the other variable is just what late planted corn really looks like in the end. Most producers do not be exhibiting a high level of confidence that their yield will be what it has been in recent year.”
Soybeans are still being supported by the low planting numbers today, but slower demand for exports and a drier upcoming forecast have brought in resistance to prices, Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said. “There has been some talk that China could roll forward or even cancel open and unshipped US soybean sales to China,” he said.
Soybean planting progress is the lowest on record going back to 1980, but northern states should be able to make progress this week, The Hightower Report said. “The next concern will be a yield drag on late planted soybeans,” they said. “In 1993 there was a 3% decline from trend and in 1995 there was a 7% decline from trend.”
“The wheat market took profits after the recent rally,” Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. She noted that world supplies are expected to be abundant with the 2019/20 stocks, with an estimated 293.0 mmt number.
“Wheat futures reversed their recent uptrend and traded lower,” Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said. “Fact USDA increased weekly US winter wheat crop ratings despite concern that wet weather was reducing quality thus ratings and estimated US 2019 spring wheat crop much higher than expected and last year weighed on prices.”