In this file:
· U.S.-China Tariffs: Is There an End in Sight?
· US-China Tensions Flare as Trade Talks Near End, NCBA's Kent Bacus on Trump's Hardball Strategy
· U.S., Chinese Negotiators Hold Talks Amid Tariff Hike
U.S.-China Tariffs: Is There an End in Sight?
via Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania - May 14, 2019
The sudden escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China in recent days could lead to longer-term shifts in not just China’s import programs but also in global manufacturing arrangements, according to experts at Wharton and the University of Pennsylvania. U.S. trade policies that are not rooted in economic considerations but are driven by political postures could prove costly for U.S. businesses and consumers, in addition to eroding the country’s leverage in global trade, they warned.
The latest conflict between the two countries has seen tit-for-tat actions. China on Monday announced that it will raise tariffs to between 5% and 25% on certain U.S. products entering its country, worth some $60 billion in annual trade. That came after the U.S. move on Friday to increase tariffs to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, with a threat to extend that to another $300 billion worth of imports from China. In 2018, U.S. exports to China were $179.3 billion; imports were $557.9 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $378.6 billion in 2018, according to government data.
“Tit-for-tat is an understatement,” said Wharton emeritus professor of management Marshall W. Meyer of the retaliatory tariffs China has imposed. China could end up hurting itself with those higher tariffs, especially in its imports of agricultural products from the U.S. “China has its own food crisis right now; they’re losing about half their pigs to African swine flu,” he pointed out. “So, not only do they need soybeans from the U.S., they’re going to need pork from the U.S. And it looks like they’re about to impose tariffs on a variety of U.S. farm products.”
“The real pain will come if China resorts to other methods which are within the Chinese repertoire,” said Jacques deLisle, professor of law and political science at the University of Pennsylvania, who is also director of the Center for East Asian Studies and deputy director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China. “There’s quite a rich menu” of actions China could take, he added. “Tariffs are certainly part of the mix … but there are a lot of other mechanisms for making it painful for U.S. companies and for U.S. exporters.”
Meyer and deLisle discussed the Sino-U.S. tariff wars on the Knowledge@Wharton radio show on SiriusXM. (Listen to the podcast at the top of this page.)
Beyond Tariffs ...
Permanent Impacts ...
On the Tariff Trail ...
Testing Times for Both ...
Searching for Solutions ...
more, including links, podcast
US-China Tensions Flare as Trade Talks Near End, NCBA's Kent Bacus on Trump's Hardball Strategy
Oklahoma Farm Report
14 May 2019
Tensions between the US and China have ramped up in recent days as President Trump ordered an increase on tariffs against the Asian nation for dragging its feet in negotiations on trade. The Administration had hoped to have reached a trade agreement with China by March 1. However, China in its usual way, backtracked on talks in one of the most recent meetings between the representatives of each country. The Trump Administration responded, raising the existing 10 percent tariff to 25 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. Trump has said that China has three to four weeks to conclude talks or threatens to increase those tariff duties to $325 billion worth of Chinese goods. According to Kent Bacus, senior director of international trade and market access for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, this flare up was not totally unexpected given China’s tactical history. Bacus shared his insights into these negotiations with Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays during Washington Watch, an event hosted by the National Association of Farm Broadcasters in DC this week.
“We’re taking a very realistic approach when it comes to China. You’re talking about two of the biggest markets in the world. Nothing is just going to move easily,” Bacus remarked. “There are systematic changes we need China to make. At the same time, China’s got a good thing going here in the US and they aren’t willing to give that up. So, President Trump and his team are really having to play hardball to get China to make those changes.”
Unfortunately, though, the process has caused great financial strain on the US ag industry - an easy target Bacus says whenever tariffs are unholstered - which often faces backlash from retaliatory tariffs in kind. Bacus admits the cattle industry has not felt the pressure as badly as other commodities but says the struggle is real. However, Bacus says the industry also realizes that ultimately, in the end if China concedes to the demands of the Administration, it will be of greater benefit to the entire US economy. He also explains that even if the US were not in a trade dispute with China, there are still non-tariff barriers that would and are limiting the US beef industry’s access to their marketplace. Bacus says that eventually if these nonscience-based restrictions are ever relaxed, the Chinese market is valued conservatively at $4 billion annually. Last year, the US beef industry exported $8.3 billion globally. Bacus says the industry understands breaking into China will be no easy task - but knows too that the Trump Administration is committed to making it happen...
more, including audio [6:15 min.]
U.S., Chinese Negotiators Hold Talks Amid Tariff Hike
North American Meat Institute (NAMI)
May 14, 2019
U.S. and Chinese negotiators met last week in Washington, as tensions escalated in the ongoing trade dispute between both countries. The Trump Administration, on Friday, May 10, increased tariffs from 10 to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to the U.S., after China reportedly reneged on a host of its commitments viewed as crucial for a deal. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative indicated it would publish a separate Federal Register notice detailing an exclusion process for products impacted by the tariff increase. The scheduled tariff hike on these imports had been suspended in March to allow negotiators from both the U.S. and China time to work toward reaching a broad agreement aimed at resolving the countries' trade dispute.
The Administration has also announced its intention to levy 25% tariffs on an additional $325 billion in Chinese imports - a move that, if implemented, would place duties on all imports from China. China, to date, has retaliated by targeting $110 billion in U.S. exports to the country, and plans to respond with proportionate countermeasures to the U.S.'s latest round of tariff actions. It is not yet clear which U.S. products will be targeted, but U.S. pork and beef exports to China are already subject to higher tariffs...