In this file:
· Global pork prices to soar on back of China ASF crisis
… Gira has radically revised its projections and is now forecasting a 24% drop in Chinese production…
· China is killing a third of its pigs because of a gruesome and incurable fever, which could drive up the price of pork around the world
The government is urging farmers to cull infected pigs to prevent the spread of the disease, which is in turn dramatically decreasing the country's pork production.
Global pork prices to soar on back of China ASF crisis
By Alistair Driver, Pig World (UK)
May 14, 2019
Global pork prices will soar over the next few years on the back of Asia’s ‘incredible crisis’ as African swine fever (ASF) takes a massive toll on pig production, according to analyst Richard Brown, director of Gira.
Mr Brown opened the Pigs Tomorrow conference in Leicestershire, on Tuesday, with an overview of the staggering implications of Asia’s ASF outbreaks. The virus is rampant in China and has spread beyond China to Vietnam, Cambodia and, in all likelihood, beyond.
He said the scale of the crisis was ‘bigger than BSE’ and the ‘biggest deal we have had to talk about’ in his distinguished career.
As the scale of the outbreak in China has become clearer, Gira has radically revised its projections and is now forecasting a 24% drop in Chinese production. This could amount to 13 million tonnes in 2019, more than total US pork production.
There will not be sufficient availability of pork or other proteins to fill this gap and as a result China, which has traditionally consumed around half the world’s pork, will have to change its consumption habits.
Nonetheless, there will be an ‘absolutely massive’ supply shock in world pork, with a surge in import demand from markets where there will not be sufficient volumes to meet the demand.
Mr Brown predicted that pork products will be diverted from markets right across the globe, including the EU, US, Canada and Brazil, to fill the gap. Other meats, including beef, chicken and lamb, will also be in demand.
This will lead to ‘much higher’ pig prices and an expansion in pig production – the EU stands to benefit...
China is killing a third of its pigs because of a gruesome and incurable fever, which could drive up the price of pork around the world
· China is grappling with a widespread African swine flu (ASF) epidemic, a disease fatal to pigs but harmless to humans.
· ASF's effects on pigs are gruesome. Symptoms include diarrhea, depression, and miscarriages.
· The government is urging farmers to cull infected pigs to prevent the spread of the disease, which is in turn dramatically decreasing the country's pork production.
· Dutch bank Rabobank estimates that the country will kill 150 million to 200 million pigs — or one third of the country's supply — this year.
· China is the world's largest pork producer and consumer. The steep fall in pork production in China and likely rise in Chinese demand will likely drive up global pork prices, researchers say.
Alexandra Ma, Business Insider
May 15, 2019
China is expected to kill about a third of all pigs in the country this year due to an outbreak of the gruesome and incurable disease, African swine flu (ASF), which will likely drive up pork prices around the world.
African swine flu has spread to almost every province in mainland China since Beijing's agriculture ministry confirmed the first outbreak in the northeastern Liaoning province, which borders North Korea, in August 2018.
The disease, which is deadly to pigs but harmless in humans, has since spread to the southern Chinese island of Hainan as well as to other Asian countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Mongolia, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
Some 1.02 million pigs have been culled in China so far in an effort to prevent the spread of the disease, China's agriculture ministry reported last month.
The country is expected to produce 25% to 35% less pork this year as a result of ASF, the Netherlands' Rabobank said in a note last month. That accounts for between 150 million and 200 million pigs.
China is the world's largest pork consumer and producer, and a 30% drop in the country's pork production is equivalent to Europe's annual pork supply, Rabobank said.
The fall in domestic pork production is also expected to push up the demand for pork around the world, which will result in supply shortfalls and global price rises...