[Weds]: … “China has done all it can to hold pork values down over the past few months, but we anticipate a higher price to emerge that would spark a surge in imports,” The Hightower report continued. They noted that China’s sow herd is down 22.5% from last year’s April levels… From 2011-2013, China accounted for 10-13% of U.S. pork exports, while last year had them at 6% of the market share. “If China started buying from us in January, we would guesstimate exports of 939 mln to 1.812 bln for 2019,” Allendale said. Those numbers would be a 16-31% increase year over year… [Tues]: National carcass base up $1.14… Iowa-Minnesota carcass down 40 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up 40 cents… June hogs were up sharply Tuesday, closing up $2.45. The Hightower Report says solid gains in pork cutout values helped support the price hike. Cutout values climbed and at times traded nearly $4 higher than a week ago…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Wed 5/15/2019 8:25 AM

 

Lean hogs - All eyes are waiting for China to start purchasing pork. Once they begin, The Hightower Report thinks buying will pick up steam in the markets. “We wouldn’t rule out a run to $108.12,” they said.

 

“China has done all it can to hold pork values down over the past few months, but we anticipate a higher price to emerge that would spark a surge in imports,” The Hightower report continued. They noted that China’s sow herd is down 22.5% from last year’s April levels.

 

Waiting on China purchases

 

From 2011-2013, China accounted for 10-13% of U.S. pork exports, while last year had them at 6% of the market share. “If China started buying from us in January, we would guesstimate exports of 939 mln to 1.812 bln for 2019,” Allendale said. Those numbers would be a 16-31% increase year over year. “The question of if we’ll see bigger buying remains to be seen.”

 

There is “no sign of a low” as liquidation in the cattle market remains a threat to the bulls. “Trade war fears, hefty short-term supply and the lack of a bounce in beef prices helped keep speculative selling active,” The Hightower Report said.

 

Tue 5/14/2019 4:34 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base up $1.14 to $82.02/cwt.

National live up 64 cents to $62.67/cwt.

Iowa-Minnesota carcass down 40 cents to $82.50/cwt.

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up 40 cents to $88.64/cwt.

 

The hog market enjoyed a banner day, with huge prices increase across the futures board. Stewart-Peterson says June futures again tested overhead 10- and 50-day moving averages. Prices in the back months have some room to move higher as most are viewing them as oversold.

 

Hightower says the “cross over and close above the 60-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned positive.” Hightower adds a recovery in the stock market likely help most ag markets see a price increase.

 

Hogs rebound after Monday's losses

 

June hogs were up sharply Tuesday, closing up $2.45. The Hightower Report says solid gains in pork cutout values helped support the price hike. Cutout values climbed and at times traded nearly $4 higher than a week ago, says Hightower.

 

Feeder cattle prices were lower on the strength of the corn market. CHS Hedging say buying interest waned mid-day on feeders, while the cash cattle market was relatively quiet, with bids of $116 on a live basis in Kansas. Offers are closer to $125 on a live basis, CHS Hedging said.

 

Wet weather, delays give double-digit gains

 

Wet weather in the cornbelt was supporting higher corn prices today, with the July contract closing up over 12 cents. Hightower says the market closed above key resistance at $3.60 ¾, opening up for further short covering from speculative funds. December corn was up nearly 12 cents Tuesday.

 

Soybean prices also enjoyed a rally today on slow planting progress. Stewart-Peterson says the total number of soybean acres this year could increase with planting delays. July beans traded more than 25 cents higher Tuesday, with November beans seeing a similar hike.

 

Corn

 

Planting progress indicates corn planting is only about 30% done as of May 12. This compares to a five-year average of 66 percent. Stewart-Peterson says Illinois is running 71 percent behind the average pace, with Indiana behind 51 percent and Ohio behind by 43 percent.

 

Iowa has planted 48 percent of its corn acres, down from an average of 76 percent. ADM Ag Market View says Informa has lowered acres estimates in Iowa, South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota and Missouri. Their crop estimate is now 14,760 million bushels, with USDA at 15,030.

 

Soybeans

 

Significantly higher soybean prices have produced jumps in bean meal and oil prices. Barchart says meal prices are up $10.20 per ton for July, with oil prices up 38 cents. Informa adjusted its bean acres to 86.4 million acres, up 1.8 million acres over previous estimates.

 

Hightower says the Trump administration is making a “full court press” on trade negotiations. The president calls the dispute a “little squabble”. The slow planting progress along with strong South American offers has helped support higher prices.

 

Wheat

 

Wheat prices affirmed yesterday’s bullish reversals, following that up with continued strength today. Hightower said prices were up substantially in Chicago and Kansas City, adding “both markets have set the tone for the potential weekly reversals, which is the trend managed money traders like.”

 

ADM Ag Market View says “some feel recent weakness in financial markets may have triggered some short covering in the grains.” Rains in the Midwest could raise concerns about winter wheat crop quality.

 

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