[Weds]: Cattle - … Retailers seem to be cutting prices to clear supply,” The Hightower Report said. That downward trend in beef means cash cattle is likely to stay suppressed, they said… There is “no sign of a low” as liquidation in the cattle market remains a threat to the bulls… [Tues]: USDA reported today that boxed beef cutout values are lower… Choice down $1.46… Choice down $1.46… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported no live sales, with dressed sales of 274 head at $186.00. In Iowa, no live sales were reported. Dressed sales of 38 head sold for $190.00… Cattle markets joined other commodities by climbing higher today, with nearby contracts up substantially at midday. Stewart-Peterson says Choice beef values were slightly higher at close Monday, and were up again today, providing some fundamental support…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Wed 5/15/2019 8:25 AM
Cattle - “Retailers seem to be cutting prices to clear supply,” The Hightower Report said. That downward trend in beef means cash cattle is likely to stay suppressed, they said.
Yesterday’s early morning rally “failed to attract new buyers into the market,” Blue Line Futures said. That led to a technical failure, they said. “We continue to believe that the cash and board will work together and converge over the next month, but right now cash is doing the heavy lifting.”
Waiting on China purchases
From 2011-2013, China accounted for 10-13% of U.S. pork exports, while last year had them at 6% of the market share. “If China started buying from us in January, we would guesstimate exports of 939 mln to 1.812 bln for 2019,” Allendale said. Those numbers would be a 16-31% increase year over year. “The question of if we’ll see bigger buying remains to be seen.”
There is “no sign of a low” as liquidation in the cattle market remains a threat to the bulls. “Trade war fears, hefty short-term supply and the lack of a bounce in beef prices helped keep speculative selling active,” The Hightower Report said.
Tue 5/14/2019 4:34 PM
USDA reported today that boxed beef cutout values are lower on Choice and steady on Select on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings.
Choice down $1.46 to $220.12/cwt.
Select up 8 cents to $208.97/cwt.
In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported no live sales, with dressed sales of 274 head at $186.00. In Iowa, no live sales were reported. Dressed sales of 38 head sold for $190.00.
Cattle markets joined other commodities by climbing higher today, with nearby contracts up substantially at midday. Stewart-Peterson says Choice beef values were slightly higher at close Monday, and were up again today, providing some fundamental support.
Barchart says USDA’s weekly slaughter estimate came in at 121,000 head, up 2,000 head from a week ago and up 4,000 head from a year ago. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed Tuesday morning.
Hogs rebound after Monday's losses
June hogs were up sharply Tuesday, closing up $2.45. The Hightower Report says solid gains in pork cutout values helped support the price hike. Cutout values climbed and at times traded nearly $4 higher than a week ago, says Hightower.
Feeder cattle prices were lower on the strength of the corn market. CHS Hedging say buying interest waned mid-day on feeders, while the cash cattle market was relatively quiet, with bids of $116 on a live basis in Kansas. Offers are closer to $125 on a live basis, CHS Hedging said.
Wet weather, delays give double-digit gains
Wet weather in the cornbelt was supporting higher corn prices today, with the July contract closing up over 12 cents. Hightower says the market closed above key resistance at $3.60 ¾, opening up for further short covering from speculative funds. December corn was up nearly 12 cents Tuesday.
Soybean prices also enjoyed a rally today on slow planting progress. Stewart-Peterson says the total number of soybean acres this year could increase with planting delays. July beans traded more than 25 cents higher Tuesday, with November beans seeing a similar hike.
Planting progress indicates corn planting is only about 30% done as of May 12. This compares to a five-year average of 66 percent. Stewart-Peterson says Illinois is running 71 percent behind the average pace, with Indiana behind 51 percent and Ohio behind by 43 percent.
Iowa has planted 48 percent of its corn acres, down from an average of 76 percent. ADM Ag Market View says Informa has lowered acres estimates in Iowa, South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota and Missouri. Their crop estimate is now 14,760 million bushels, with USDA at 15,030.
Significantly higher soybean prices have produced jumps in bean meal and oil prices. Barchart says meal prices are up $10.20 per ton for July, with oil prices up 38 cents. Informa adjusted its bean acres to 86.4 million acres, up 1.8 million acres over previous estimates.
Hightower says the Trump administration is making a “full court press” on trade negotiations. The president calls the dispute a “little squabble”. The slow planting progress along with strong South American offers has helped support higher prices.
Wheat prices affirmed yesterday’s bullish reversals, following that up with continued strength today. Hightower said prices were up substantially in Chicago and Kansas City, adding “both markets have set the tone for the potential weekly reversals, which is the trend managed money traders like.”
ADM Ag Market View says “some feel recent weakness in financial markets may have triggered some short covering in the grains.” Rains in the Midwest could raise concerns about winter wheat crop quality.