In this file:
· U.S. Corn Planting Pace Picks Up, Remains Sharply Behind
· Agricultural Markets Post The May WASDE
· Don’t Push the Panic Button Yet
· Soybean planting expands amid trade tussle
U.S. Corn Planting Pace Picks Up, Remains Sharply Behind
By Mike McGinnis, Successful Farming
Agriculture.com - 5/13/2019
DES MOINES, Iowa — U.S. corn farmers remain over halfway behind five-year average planting pace, and behind the trade’s expectations.
In its Crop Progress Report Monday, the USDA pegged U.S. corn planting at 30% complete, behind the 66% five-year average.
The trade expected a completion rating of 35%.
As of Sunday, Iowa farmers had 48% of that state’s corn crop planted vs. a 76% five-year average. Illinois farmers have 11% of their corn seeded, behind a 82% five-year average. Nebraska farmers have just 46% of their corn planted vs. a 72% five-year average.
Also, 10% of the U.S. corn has emerged vs. a 29% five-year average.
In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. soybean planting completion rate at 9% vs. a 29% five-year average.
Iowa has 13% of its soybean crop in the ground, while Illinois has 3% of its crop seeded vs. a 34% five-year average. Nebraska soybean growers have 20% of their crop in the ground vs. a 32% five-year average.
Agricultural Markets Post The May WASDE
About: Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (DBA), Includes: ADZ, AGA, AGF, BALB, CANE, CORN, COW, CROP, DAG, FTAG, FUD, GRU, JJA, JJGTF, JJS, JO, MOO, NIB, RJA, SGG, SOYB, TAGS, UAG, UBC, USAG, VEGI, WEAT
Andrew Hecht, Seeking Alpha
May 13, 2019
· Thoughts from Sal Gilberte.
· Soybeans and corn move lower.
· Wheat remains under pressure.
· Cotton tanks.
· Animal protein - cattle and hog prices drop on trade.
n Friday, May 10, at noon EST the US Department of Agriculture released its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report on a day where the market's attention was elsewhere. An environment where the US slapped new tariffs on China moved the WASDE report to the end of the line when it comes to its impact on the prices of the leading agricultural commodities. Friday was also the day of the Uber IPO, but the WASDE and Uber took a back seat to trade which weighed on prices. Meanwhile, the message from the USDA as the crop year and growing season get underway was anything but bullish for most of the agricultural futures markets many of which fell to new and lower lows in the aftermath of the release.
The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) holds many of the futures contracts that were the subjects of the USDA WASDE report. Late last week, DBA fell to a new record low at $15.55 per share, and it settled close to that level at $15.59 on May 10 following the release of the monthly report.
Thoughts from Sal Gilberte
Last weekend, I reached out to my friend Sal Gilberte who is the founder of the Teucrium family of agricultural ETFs including the CORN, SOYB, WEAT, and CANE products. Sal told me:
This was the most bearish WASDE in recent memory, confirming the view of the large speculative shorts in the grain markets that there are plenty of supplies to meet ever-increasing global grain demand. However, it appears that both speculators and the USDA believe planting will be on time, weather will be near-perfect for the seventh year in a row throughout the growing season, and China will never return to its pre-trade war purchase levels of agricultural products from the United States. Short term traders might continue to profit for a little while longer given these market perceptions, but longer-term investors and asset allocators might want to consider current decade-low price levels across the grain complex, the fact that planting progress this year is currently well below five-year averages, the Chinese will need agricultural products from the U.S. regardless of tariffs, and betting on weather can be a risky proposition at best.
All that and I didn't even mention that the USDA's assumptions of a lower ethanol blend ratio are in direct conflict with the current push to allow E15 from E10 - and none of the USDA ethanol-related projections take into account China's adoption of E10 starting in 2020 - less than eight months from now!
The USDA always tends to look towards the growing season with rose-colored glasses and assume that the weather conditions will be ideal and produce bumper crops. If they are wrong and Mother Nature has something else in store over the coming weeks and months, all agricultural prices are a raging buy at their current levels.
Soybeans and corn move lower ...
more, including charts
Don’t Push the Panic Button Yet
By Gary Truitt, Hoosier Ag Today
May 13, 2019
Corn planting in Indiana is only 6% complete, according to the latest USDA report. Yet agronomists are still saying it is too early to push the panic button.
After a weekend of rain and a change in the forecast to cooler and wetter weather, Ryan Peal, field agronomist with Pioneer, said his phone has gotten very busy, “In some cases, there are folks who are beginning to panic.”
The answer he continues to give growers is don’t make any changes just yet, “We don’t need to think about switching things out until at least June 1. Even if we go into that first week in June, we still do not need to change too many plans.” He added that, by the 5th of June, 116 or 118 day corn may be risky, “Hybrids that are 110 to 113 day in Central Indiana would work the first week of June.” Peal stresses that taking the time to do it right the first time will be vital this year, because there may not be a second chance, “If you are already compromising yields by a later planting, the last thing you want to do is rush things and hurt yields even more.”
Soybean planting expands amid trade tussle
Nation supporting farmers at home, seeking new sources abroad
By Shen Weiduo, Source:Global Times (China)
Farmers in Northeast China are striving to expand soybean planting area during the spring sowing season, in response to the country's call to revitalize the soybean industry and reduce reliance on US soybean imports amid the escalating China-US trade war.
US soybean futures fell on Monday to hit their lowest in more than 10 years, after China hit back at US President Donald Trump's latest tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods on Monday, escalating the ongoing trade war.
China's duties, ranging from 5 percent to 25 percent, are scheduled to take effect June 1. More than 5,000 products are affected, including beef, fruit, vegetables, coats, refrigerators and furniture.
China slapped a 25 percent tariff on US soybeans in July last year as part of a tit-for-tat trade war between the world's two largest economies.
US soybean farmers are "frustrated" with the escalating situation. "We cannot withstand another year in which our most important foreign market continues to slip away and soybean prices are 20 to 25 percent, or even more, below pre-tariff levels," said John Heisdorffer, chairman of the American Soybean Association in a statement published on Monday.
"What that means for soybean growers is that we're losing. Losing a valuable market, losing stable pricing, losing an opportunity to support our families and our communities," said Davie Stephens, president of the association, in the statement.
China's imports of US soybeans for the first quarter of 2019 came to 16.75 million tons, down 14.4 percent from the same quarter last year, according to a Reuters report.
Experts said that given the unstable external situation, China will seek multiple import sources such as Russia and increase domestic output of soybeans.
The soybean planting area has increased significantly in northern China this year, especially in North China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Heilongjiang Province, according to a report by cctv.com on Tuesday that cited data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs...