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·         Pork Quarterly Q2 2019: Chinese Pork Production Shortfall Will Require Global Production Response

·         Chinese pork production to be cut 20% by ASF



Pork Quarterly Q2 2019: Chinese Pork Production Shortfall Will Require Global Production Response



via - May 10, 2019


The spread of African Swine Fever (ASF) into every province in China and throughout Southeast Asia in the last quarter has generated new concerns over the industry’s ability to respond to world demand. Structural constraints on production growth in some regions, along with infrastructure and logistics capacity constraints, may leave the world with limited supply and mounting competition for potential trading partners.


“Mounting losses in the Chinese pig herd due to African Swine Fever are expected to drive a 16m metric ton deficit in pork supplies by year-end 2019,” according to Christine McCracken, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein. Until China gains control of the disease and is able to rebuild, however, it will need to look to other protein sources to meet consumers’ needs. China will need to expand its production of other proteins and ratchet up imports in an effort to fill the gap. Ongoing trade disputes and infrastructure limitations, however, may limit China’s options.


Other highlights from the Pork Quarterly Q2 2019 include:


China: Producers Remain Cautious on ASF Risk


As the industry surveys the full extent of ASF losses, the challenges of rebuilding its herd, and the potential for reinfection, markets are growing increasingly concerned with projected production shortfalls. Estimated production losses of 25%-35% are expected to create a supply gap that will be impossible to fill in the short run.


US: Industry Takes Precautions – Prepares for Strong Export Demand


After several months of disappointing returns, US hog producers are realizing a nearly USD 50 per head rebound in profitability. This reversal of fortunes is leading some top producers to reconsider expansion plans. While profitable, the industry remains exposed to potential disruption should ASF enter its borders, or should future access to China not be forthcoming.


Europe: Belgian ASF Outbreak Ongoing – Industry is Focused on Containment ...


Brazil: The Light at the End of a Long Tunnel ...


more, including link to report



Chinese pork production to be cut 20% by ASF


By Aidan Fortune, GlobalMeatNews



African Swine Fever (ASF) could cut Chinese pig numbers by up to 20%, a new report has found.


The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations’ (FAO) latest Food Outlook report has warned that ASF could cut the nation’s pig production by a fifth.


The report stated: “While the exact impacts are still to be determined, the disease could cause a near 20 percent decline in China's hog inventories. The sharp contraction is supported by indirect evidence, suggesting a large local contraction in the pigmeat processing industry as well as in pig feed production and sales.”


The FAO said that the impact in China would reverberate throughout the world. “The global impact is likely to be complex. On the one hand, pigmeat imports are projected to rise by as much as 26 percent. Imports of other meats, including bovine and poultry meats, are also expected to rise. On the other hand, fewer pigs in China should translate into lower demand for feed grains and oilseeds, in particular soybeans. China imports about two-thirds of all internationally-traded soybeans, and around half of these are destined for its domestic pig herds. Imports were already slowing due to trade tensions with the United States of America; they are further reinforced by the country's decision to reduce the protein requirements for pig feed.”


Europe to benefit ...