[Fri]: Global pig meat production is forecast at 115.6 million metric tons in 2019, a decline of 4% from the last year with a contraction in China outweighing expansions primarily in the U.S., Brazil and Russia… [Thurs]: National carcass base up 9 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up 47 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up 47 cents… A strong recovery kept the hog market from closing near-limit down Thursday. The Hightower Report says traders seen continued slow sales with China as a bearish force…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Fri 5/10/2019 8:45 AM
Lean hogs - The African swine fever outbreak is expected to cut China's pig meat output by at least 10% in 2019 and present opportunities for producers in other countries, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said.
Global pig meat production is forecast at 115.6 million metric tons in 2019, a decline of 4% from the last year with a contraction in China outweighing expansions primarily in the U.S., Brazil and Russia.
Big exports fail to move cattle futures
“We had a really good week of beef export sales, but it didn’t really help the futures very much,” said Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain.
Weakness in the stock market and weakness in hogs helped to pressure U.S. beef export sales, according to The Hightower Report. The USDA estimated hog slaughter came in at 472,000 yesterday, down 1.1% from last year’s pace.
Beef shipments were the largest weekly export total on record back to 2002 at 23,886 metric tons, said Brugler Marketing & Management.
Thu 5/9/2019 4:54 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base up 9 cents to $79.74/cwt.
National live up 41 cents to $61.84/cwt.
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up 47 cents to $81.10/cwt.
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up $1.88 to $86.82/cwt.
June lean hogs finished up $1.45 to $90 per hundredweight, just 20 cents from the contract high. Hightower reports exports to Mexico were just 128.5 million pounds in March, sharply lower from a year ago. Exports to China reached 42.3 million pounds in March, with is an 11-month high.
Stewart-Peterson says carcass cutouts were down 73 cents yesterday afternoon to $84.94, but were up $1.67 this morning to “86.61. U.S. pork export sales for the week ending May 2 were reported this morning at 19,600 tons vs. the previous 4-week average of 40,650 tons.
Hogs avoid downturn, cattle finish higher
A strong recovery kept the hog market from closing near-limit down Thursday. The Hightower Report says traders seen continued slow sales with China as a bearish force. Pork export sales for the week ending May 2 came in at 96,000 tonnes, compared with the average of the previous four weeks of 40,650.
Live cattle futures were mostly lower at midday, with June the lone exception. Barchart says wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed Thursday morning, with the Choice/Select spread widening to $16.42.
May soybeans push below $8
The nearby May soybean contract pushed below $8 for the first time since December 2008. Hightower says weakness is tied to a pessimistic outlook for the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations. Over 400,000 tonnes of net cancellations have been posted in this morning’s current export data.
Corn futures were down 4 to 9 cents at midday. Barchart says USDA indicated that 287,569 MT of old crop corn was sold the week of May 2, well shy of estimates. That represented just half of the previous week’s sales.
Hightower says the corn market is also feeling the pressure from troubled trade negotiations with China. May corn was down 10 ¾ to $3.44 ½, over 5 ½ off the contract high. A bearish 10-day weather forecast, with very little rain, also pressured corn markets Thursday.
Ethanol and DDG exports were the second largest ever for March, reports Barchart. DDG sales came in at 956,828 MT, with ethanol well below last year’s record at 140 million gallons.
As of May 2, cumulative soybeans sales stand at 88.2 percent of the USDA forecast for the 2018/2019 marketing year. Hightower says the five year average is 95.8 percent.
Soybeans meal futures were down $3.60 per ton, with May soil oil down 38 cents Barchart says. Census data, also released this morning, showed a record number of soybeans exported in March at 3.71 MMT (136.19 mbu).
Hightower says wheat markets were under pressure today from the bearish outlook on trade negotiations.
Michaela White of CHS Hedging said there is also concern with the WASDE report tomorrow, but right now trade “appears to have taken center stage.”
Stewart-Peterson says Friday’s USDA Supply and Demand report should indicate ample inventories of wheat, both domestically and globally. Trade estimates are near 1.097 billion bushels for carryover for the 2018-2019 season.