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         Disease to cut China pig meat output by at least 10 percent: FAO

         Global Meat Output to Fall as Fever Ravages China Pig Farms

         China inflation jumps to six-month high as African swine fever drives up pork prices



Disease to cut China pig meat output by at least 10 percent: FAO


Reporting by Nigel Hunt; Editing by Alexander Smith, Reuters

via KFGO (ND) - May 09, 2019


LONDON (Reuters) - An African Swine Fever outbreak is expected to cut China's pig meat output by at least 10 percent in 2019 and present opportunities for producers elsewhere, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Thursday.


The shrinking of the world's largest hog herd will have a noticeable impact on meat and feed markets worldwide, with more than one million pigs culled in China so far in an effort to halt the contagion, the FAO said in a food outlook report.


"With the sharp decline in pig inventories, the exponentially rising (feed) import trend , especially of soybeans over the past two decades could come to an abrupt halt," the FAO report said.


The disease has also spread to neighboring countries, notably Vietnam, Laos, Mongolia and Cambodia.


"The unfortunate prospect facing Asian producers could bring opportunities for (pork) producers elsewhere, particularly those in Europe, the U.S. and Brazil," the FAO said.


"It is a rare combination of events that presents pig producers with higher prices, higher export volumes and lower feed prices. But the data available for the spread of ASF so far would indicate that in Europe and the Americas pig producers may be about to enjoy precisely this situation."


Global pig meat production is forecast at 115.6 million tonnes in 2019, a decline of 4.0 percent from the prior year with a contraction in China outweighing expansions especially in the U.S., Brazil and Russia.


EU pig meat production is forecast to remain stable at about 24 million tonnes with the continued spread of ASF in countries such as Romania, Hungary and Poland dimming the outlook.


The U.S. is forecast to raise production by 3.8 percent...





Global Meat Output to Fall as Fever Ravages China Pig Farms


††† Meat production to fall for the first time in two decades: UN

††† Pork decline offsets growth in chicken, beef, report shows


By Aine Quinn, Bloomberg

May 9, 2019


Meat production is likely to fall for the first time in two decades because of a deadly disease thatís wiping out Chinese hog herds.


Thatís according a report from the United Nations, which said African swine fever will have far-reaching effects in food and agriculture markets around the world. As a whole, farmers will produce 0.2% less meat this year.


More than 1 million hogs have been culled in China since the outbreak began and some analysts are predicting that the country, the worldís top hog producer, will lose 30% of its herd this year. For all the recent fanfare about younger consumers going vegan and Beyond Meat Inc.ís blockbuster IPO, itís not enough to move the needle when it comes to global meat consumption.


The decline in meat supply this year would be a small dip after years of steady growth as rising incomes and higher standards of living in the developing world mean more people are able to afford foods that were once a rare luxury. Meat production has increased about 45% since 2000, according to the UN.


For now, the pig disease in China is having the biggest impact on pork production, with the decline in pork offsetting growth in supplies of chicken and beef. The virus -- which isnít known to harm humans -- has spread nationwide and thereís no indication that itís under control yet.


The U.S. Department of Agriculture in April forecast a drop of 134 million head -- equivalent to the entire annual output of American pigs -- and the worst slump since the USDA began counting Chinaís pigs in the mid 1970s.


Chinaís increased demand for imports helped push a gauge of global meat prices up 3% to a one-year high in April, sending a measure of overall food prices up for a fourth month, the UNís Food & Agriculture Organization said in a separate report Thursday. June hog futures are up almost 9% this year in Chicago.


Hereís how the African swine fever outbreak is impacting agriculture, according to the FAO:


Soybeans and Feed ...


Milk ...


Chicken ...


more, including graphs



China inflation jumps to six-month high as African swine fever drives up pork prices


         Consumer prices rise to 2.5 per cent in April, up from 2.3 per cent in March, as pork prices jump 14.4 per cent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics

         Producer price inflation rises to 0.9 per cent in April compared to a year earlier, up from 0.4 per cent in March, and above the median 0.6 per cent gain predicted


Karen Yeung, South China Morning Post

9 May, 2019


Chinaís consumer inflation climbed to its highest level in six months in April because of soaring pork prices, with the nation increasingly feeling the effects of the African swine fever epidemic.


Consumer price inflation accelerated to 2.5 per cent in April from a year earlier, its highest level since October, up from 2.3 per cent in March, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday.


Food prices jumped 6.1 per cent in April due to higher pork and fruit prices, as the rise in pork prices accelerated to 14.4 per cent from 5.1 per cent in March.


Since officials began reporting cases of African swine fever in August, the disease has led to the culling of hundreds of thousands of live pigs and breeding stock to stop the spread of the virus that is deadly to pigs but does not affect humans. Experts believe there are far more cases than the 129 outbreaks officially reported in all provinces and autonomous regions of the country, devastating the pork industry.


To make matters worse, China has blocked imports from two Canadian pork producers, Olymel and Drummond, since April after police in Vancouver arrested Huawei chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou at the request of the United States for violating sanctions against Iran. Pork imports from the US have also been heavily restricted by tariffs of 62 per cent on frozen pork and 70 per cent on fresh pork.


In addition to higher pork prices, the NBS said that fruit prices surged 11.9 per cent after last yearís poor harvest in the northern region that caused a drop in supplies.


Meanwhile, Chinaís factory-gate inflation rose faster than expected last month because of higher commodity prices and the effect of government stimulus programmes that ramped up infrastructure spending alongside tax cuts to support demand...