In this file:

 

·         African Swine Fever – a growing global problem

African swine fever, until 10 years ago largely confined to Africa, is now very much a global disease affecting all corners of the pork industry. Alistair Driver summarises the impact it is having, directly or indirectly, in different parts of the world

 

·         Swine fever hits Vietnam’s biggest pork producers

The country’s largest pig-farming province has been affected by the lethal strain

 

·         Slaughterhouse Test Blitz Ordered to Stem China's Pig Contagion

Government calls for nationwide testing at 10,000 abattoirs

 

·         Disease to cut China pig meat output by at least 10 percent: FAO

... Global pig meat production is forecast at 115.6 million tonnes in 2019, a decline of 4.0 percent from the prior year with a contraction in China outweighing expansions especially in the U.S., Brazil and Russia...

 

·         Swine fever in China creates an opportunity for Brazilian exporters

… Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply estimate that China has lost about 30% of the pigs in the country as a result of the swine fever outbreak…

 

·         China inflation jumps to six-month high as African swine fever drives up pork prices

 … pork prices jump 14.4 per cent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics…

 

·         African swine fever has crept from China to Europe. Will it hit the U.S.?

... U.S. hog prices have been struggling, so the specter of a Chinese shortfall could be a boon to American producers...

 

·         Global Meat Output to Fall as Fever Ravages China Pig Farms

Meat production to fall for the first time in two decades: UN

 

 

 

African Swine Fever – a growing global problem

 

Pig World (UK)

May 8, 2019 

 

African swine fever, until 10 years ago largely confined to Africa, is now very much a global disease affecting all corners of the pork industry. Alistair Driver summarises the impact it is having, directly or indirectly, in different parts of the world

 

NORTH & SOUTH AMERICA

 

THE US

The US is expected to be a major beneficiary of increased Chinese export demand – the USDA is forecasting a 5% overall hike in export volumes this year. Producers are asking the US Congress for a further 600 inspectors at points of entry, after officials seized one million pounds of meat illegally imported from China in New Jersey in March.

 

CANADA

Canada saw a big surge in exports to China in the first quarter of this year. At the start of April, Canada introduced new rules on feed imports to protect against ASF.

 

ARGENTINA

In April, it was announced that Argentina has now been approved to export pork to China from 25 plants.

 

BRAZIL

As a major pork exporter Brazil is expected to benefit significantly from China’s import demand – the USDA forecasts a 23% rise in 2019. However, exports of soya from Brazil are being hit badly by reduced export demand. Monitoring of food products at airports was stepped up in autumn 2018 to protect the pig sector.

 

WESTERN EUROPE

Prices have been soaring in major pig producing countries due to extra Chinese demand. The EU has introduced a co-ordinated regionalised approach to ASF outbreaks.

 

BELGIUM

The virus was detected in wild boar near Belgium’s border with France in September 2018. It has since been found in more than 700 wild boar in the restricted zone, although the rate of confirmed cases is slowing.

 

ITALY

ASF has been endemic in the island Sardinia for 40 years. It has not been detected in mainland Italy.

 

DENMARK

In January, Denmark started building a 70km (43-mile) fence along its border with Germany in an effort to keep out wild boar.

 

THE UK

ASF has never been found in the UK. APHA rates the risk of the virus entering the UK as ‘medium’, although the risk of the pig population being exposed to it remains ‘low’, dependent on high levels of biosecurity.

 

AFRICA

ASF was first documented in Kenya in 1921 and, with a few exceptions remained largely restricted to Africa until well into this century.  Outbreaks are now relatively rare in Africa – there were just 56 recorded, all in domestic pigs, with 40,000 pigs lost, from 2016 to 2018, mainly in central and southern Africa.

 

SOUTH AFRICA

In early April, South Africa detected an outbreak on a farm in North West province. It is reported that the outbreak may be linked to contact with wild animals.

 

ZIMBABWE

Zimbabwe is the only other country in Africa to have an outbreak recorded by the OIE in recent months.

 

EASTERN EUROPE

In April, cases were recorded in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia and Ukraine. However, only Romania (61), Ukraine (7) and Poland (1) recorded cases in domestic pigs between January and March. This compared with seven countries in the summer of 2018. However, cases in wild boar appear to be increasing.

 

RUSSIA

An estimated two million pigs have been killed in Russia as a result of ASF, although there have only been a handful of cases in recent months. In April, the virus was discovered in sausages imported from China.

 

ROMANIA

Romania has the biggest ASF problem in Europe, with more than 1,000 cases in domestic pigs since July 2018.

 

POLAND

Poland has record more than 1,700 outbreaks in wild boar since July. While it has implemented culling policies, it is now reconsidering plans to build a fence on its eastern border.

 

CZECH REPUBLIC

In February, the Czech Republic became officially ASF-free. The virus was found in wild boar in June 2017, but no cases have been recorded for a year.

 

ASIA

 

CHINA ...

 

MONGOLIA ...

 

VIETNAM ...

 

CAMBODIA ...

 

JAPAN ...

 

TAIWAN ...

 

NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA ...

 

AUSTRALIA ...

 

more

http://www.pig-world.co.uk/news/african-swine-fever-a-growing-global-problem.html

 

 

Swine fever hits Vietnam’s biggest pork producers

The country’s largest pig-farming province has been affected by the lethal strain

 

By Asia Times

May 8, 2019

 

African swine fever has been discovered in a province in Vietnam that is the major producer of pork in the country and authorities have moved quickly in an attempt to stop it spreading.

 

The deadly disease has been discovered on two farms in Dong Nai province, the country’s major producer of pork.

 

The two farms are in Nhon Trach and Trang Bom districts, VN Express reported. According to local authorities, farm animals within a radius of three kilometers of the two farms are at risk of catching the disease.

 

The infected areas have been quarantined, with nearby slaughterhouses being closed temporarily and sick pigs being put down.

 

Dong Nai has more than 2.5 million pigs, making it the province with the largest number of pigs in the country. Up to 75% of the pigs are raised on large farms and the rest are raised by households. It is the first province in the southern part of the country to be hit by the strain.

 

More than 85,000 pigs have been culled in Vietnam since the fever was first reported.

 

However, northern parts of the country, including the capital Hanoi, have reported...

 

more

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/05/article/vietnam-pork-production-hit-by-swine-fever/

 

 

Slaughterhouse Test Blitz Ordered to Stem China's Pig Contagion

 

    Government calls for nationwide testing at 10,000 abattoirs

    Number of villages reporting African swine fever is increasing

 

Bloomberg News

May 8, 2019 

 

China stepped up efforts to control the deadly pig contagion ravaging its $128 billion pork industry, ordering mandatory testing for African swine fever at more than 10,000 slaughterhouses nationwide.

 

From July 1, abattoirs must routinely test all batches of hogs representative of the property from which they came. The order Tuesday adds to a suite of measures the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has instituted to arrest an increase this year in the number of villages reporting cases of the viral disease.

 

Slaughterhouses must buy diagnostic equipment or arrange a third party to perform the tests, the ministry in Beijing said last month. By May 15, every slaughterhouse will be required to have a veterinarian present to supervise testing.

 

The tighter measures are aimed at safeguarding the food chain and environment from the virus, which isn’t known to harm people. The consumption by hogs of contaminated food waste has been implicated in the spread of the disease, which has reached 31 provinces and territories since August.

 

These are “important measures to cut off the transmission of African swine fever and lower the risk of further spread,” Vice Minister Yu Kangzhen was quoted as telling a conference on Tuesday.

 

Highly Virulent

 

Blood is the most infectious source of African swine fever and one drop, or 0.05 milliliters, from an acutely infected pig may contain 50 million virus particles. Experimental studies have found that just one virus particle ingested in contaminated drinking water or fodder may be sufficient to infect a single pig.

 

Contamination of slaughterhouses and their surrounding environment by the virus can create reservoirs of the infectious agent that can be transmitted to exposed pigs and wild boars, the ministry said in a statement on April 30.

 

“Timely detection of the virus to eliminate hidden dangers is a must to prevent and control animal diseases and ensure product quality and safety,” it said.

 

Some abattoirs haven’t implemented disease prevention measures, Huang Baoxu, deputy director with China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, told a conference in Beijing in April.

 

Pig blood was found to be discarded directly into sewers, potentially contaminating the environment after the government temporarily disallowed the use of the product in animal feed last year, Huang said. The government permitted in January the use of blood in feed as long as the liquid is heat-treated to render any virus non-infectious.

 

Swill-Feeding ...

 

more, including links, chart

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-08/slaughterhouse-test-blitz-ordered-to-stem-china-s-pig-contagion

 

 

Disease to cut China pig meat output by at least 10 percent: FAO

 

Reporting by Nigel Hunt; Editing by Alexander Smith, Reuters

via KFGO (ND) - May 09, 2019

 

LONDON (Reuters) - An African Swine Fever outbreak is expected to cut China's pig meat output by at least 10 percent in 2019 and present opportunities for producers elsewhere, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Thursday.

 

The shrinking of the world's largest hog herd will have a noticeable impact on meat and feed markets worldwide, with more than one million pigs culled in China so far in an effort to halt the contagion, the FAO said in a food outlook report.

 

"With the sharp decline in pig inventories, the exponentially rising (feed) import trend , especially of soybeans over the past two decades could come to an abrupt halt," the FAO report said.

 

The disease has also spread to neighboring countries, notably Vietnam, Laos, Mongolia and Cambodia.

 

"The unfortunate prospect facing Asian producers could bring opportunities for (pork) producers elsewhere, particularly those in Europe, the U.S. and Brazil," the FAO said.

 

"It is a rare combination of events that presents pig producers with higher prices, higher export volumes and lower feed prices. But the data available for the spread of ASF so far would indicate that in Europe and the Americas pig producers may be about to enjoy precisely this situation."

 

Global pig meat production is forecast at 115.6 million tonnes in 2019, a decline of 4.0 percent from the prior year with a contraction in China outweighing expansions especially in the U.S., Brazil and Russia.

 

EU pig meat production is forecast to remain stable at about 24 million tonnes with the continued spread of ASF in countries such as Romania, Hungary and Poland dimming the outlook.

 

The U.S. is forecast to raise production by 3.8 percent...

 

more

https://kfgo.com/news/articles/2019/may/09/disease-to-cut-china-pig-meat-output-by-at-least-10-percent-fao/

 

 

Swine fever in China creates an opportunity for Brazilian exporters

 

Macau Daily Times

May 9, 2019

 

The outbreak of African swine fever in China and the resulting slaughter of the affected animals has led the government of the country to authorise imports of edible pork fat from Brazil, reported the Brazilian press.

 

The information, released by President Jair Bolsonaro on his Twitter feed, said the Chinese government had authorised pork exporters in Brazil to also ship the edible fat of the animal, in order to make up the lack of the product as a result of the swine fever outbreak.

 

“The measure comes in response to a request presented by the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein,” the president wrote, citing the association as saying that pork fat has a higher market value than traditional meat.

 

Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply estimate that China has lost about 30% of the pigs in the country as a result of the swine fever outbreak, which creates an opportunity for Brazilian producers to increase their exports to China, the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork...

 

more

https://macaudailytimes.com.mo/swine-fever-in-china-creates-an-opportunity-for-brazilian-exporters.html

 

 

China inflation jumps to six-month high as African swine fever drives up pork prices

 

·         Consumer prices rise to 2.5 per cent in April, up from 2.3 per cent in March, as pork prices jump 14.4 per cent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics

·         Producer price inflation rises to 0.9 per cent in April compared to a year earlier, up from 0.4 per cent in March, and above the median 0.6 per cent gain predicted

 

Karen Yeung, South China Morning Post

9 May, 2019

 

China’s consumer inflation climbed to its highest level in six months in April because of soaring pork prices, with the nation increasingly feeling the effects of the African swine fever epidemic.

 

Consumer price inflation accelerated to 2.5 per cent in April from a year earlier, its highest level since October, up from 2.3 per cent in March, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday.

 

Food prices jumped 6.1 per cent in April due to higher pork and fruit prices, as the rise in pork prices accelerated to 14.4 per cent from 5.1 per cent in March.

 

Since officials began reporting cases of African swine fever in August, the disease has led to the culling of hundreds of thousands of live pigs and breeding stock to stop the spread of the virus that is deadly to pigs but does not affect humans. Experts believe there are far more cases than the 129 outbreaks officially reported in all provinces and autonomous regions of the country, devastating the pork industry.

 

To make matters worse, China has blocked imports from two Canadian pork producers, Olymel and Drummond, since April after police in Vancouver arrested Huawei chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou at the request of the United States for violating sanctions against Iran. Pork imports from the US have also been heavily restricted by tariffs of 62 per cent on frozen pork and 70 per cent on fresh pork.

 

In addition to higher pork prices, the NBS said that fruit prices surged 11.9 per cent after last year’s poor harvest in the northern region that caused a drop in supplies.

 

Meanwhile, China’s factory-gate inflation rose faster than expected last month because of higher commodity prices and the effect of government stimulus programmes that ramped up infrastructure spending alongside tax cuts to support demand...

 

more

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3009478/china-inflation-jumps-six-month-high-african-swine-fever

 

 

African swine fever has crept from China to Europe. Will it hit the U.S.?

 

By Laura Reiley, The Washington Post

May 9, 2019

 

African swine fever is decimating the world’s largest hog herd in China, and that holds risk and opportunity for U.S. pork producers.

 

Affected animals have now been reported in every province in China, and the disease has spread to neighboring Mongolia, Vietnam and Cambodia.

 

At least 129 outbreaks have been reported since African swine fever was first identified in August, reducing the country’s hog population by 40 million and leading to the extermination of an estimated 1 million hogs, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

 

Experts believe infection numbers and the number of culled pigs have been immensely underreported.

 

“It’s so much more than 1 million pigs, but no one knows for sure,” said Dave Pyburn, an economist at Iowa State University who runs a small center that studies Chinese agriculture. China penalizes the “provinces that report the disease, so reporting is not a good measurement.”

 

The virus, which is not communicable to humans, can be spread by live or dead pigs, domestic or wild, and via pork products. Symptoms in animals include high fever, weakness, skin lesions, diarrhea, vomiting and difficulty breathing. Death can occur within a week of infection.

 

There is no treatment or vaccine for the disease, and the only way to stop it is to cull all affected or exposed swine herds. If that occurs, there will not be enough surplus pork in the world to make up for the anticipated shortfall in Chinese production.

 

The financial services firm Rabobank has projected a 30 percent decline in Chinese pork production for 2019.

 

Some analysts say this could lead to a 40 percent increase in the price of pork belly and a surge in demand for other animal proteins, including chicken.

 

U.S. hog prices have been struggling, so the specter of a Chinese shortfall could be a boon to American producers...

 

more 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/05/09/african-swine-fever-has-crept-china-europe-will-it-hit-us/

 

 

Global Meat Output to Fall as Fever Ravages China Pig Farms

 

    Meat production to fall for the first time in two decades: UN

    Pork decline offsets growth in chicken, beef, report shows

 

By Aine Quinn, Bloomberg

May 9, 2019

 

Meat production is likely to fall for the first time in two decades because of a deadly disease that’s wiping out Chinese hog herds.

 

That’s according a report from the United Nations, which said African swine fever will have far-reaching effects in food and agriculture markets around the world. As a whole, farmers will produce 0.2% less meat this year.

 

More than 1 million hogs have been culled in China since the outbreak began and some analysts are predicting that the country, the world’s top hog producer, will lose 30% of its herd this year. For all the recent fanfare about younger consumers going vegan and Beyond Meat Inc.’s blockbuster IPO, it’s not enough to move the needle when it comes to global meat consumption.

 

The decline in meat supply this year would be a small dip after years of steady growth as rising incomes and higher standards of living in the developing world mean more people are able to afford foods that were once a rare luxury. Meat production has increased about 45% since 2000, according to the UN.

 

For now, the pig disease in China is having the biggest impact on pork production, with the decline in pork offsetting growth in supplies of chicken and beef. The virus -- which isn’t known to harm humans -- has spread nationwide and there’s no indication that it’s under control yet.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture in April forecast a drop of 134 million head -- equivalent to the entire annual output of American pigs -- and the worst slump since the USDA began counting China’s pigs in the mid 1970s.

 

China’s increased demand for imports helped push a gauge of global meat prices up 3% to a one-year high in April, sending a measure of overall food prices up for a fourth month, the UN’s Food & Agriculture Organization said in a separate report Thursday. June hog futures are up almost 9% this year in Chicago.

 

Here’s how the African swine fever outbreak is impacting agriculture, according to the FAO:

 

Soybeans and Feed ...

 

Milk ...

 

Chicken ...

 

more, including graphs

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-09/global-meat-supply-is-falling-for-the-first-time-in-20-years