[Weds]: Iowa/Minnesota cash hog report has advanced 79% since March 7, Allendale said. The Lean Hog Index is up 60% during the same time period. The pork carcass cutout has increased 29%... [Tues]: National carcass base unchanged… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 22 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up $2.57… Stewart-Peterson says trade instability with China has harmed the market, as shown by sharply lower prices earlier Tuesday before a price rebound later today. Markets are pricing in a surge of exports to China at some point in 2019 if tariffs come down. A close eye will be kept on trade negotiations Wednesday and Thursday…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Wed 5/8/2019 9:00 AM
Lean hogs - The Iowa/Minnesota cash hog report has advanced 79% since March 7, Allendale said. The Lean Hog Index is up 60% during the same time period. The pork carcass cutout has increased 29% while pork processing margins, those excluding ownership of the hogs, are showing a loss of $3 per head on a gross basis.
Cattle, hog futures edge upward
Live cattle futures close higher for the first time in 12 sessions in the nearby contracts, with June the exception, Brugler Marketing & Management reported. Lean Hog futures were 62.5 cents to $2.625 higher in most contracts on Tuesday, with June and July 50-55 cents lower.
“I wouldn’t say we’re out of the woods by any means, but a little bit of a rebound yesterday,” said Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain. Boxed beef values were down sharply yesterday, he added.
Tue 5/7/2019 4:47 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported:
National carcass base unchanged to $79.34/cwt.
National live up 74 cents to $61.54/cwt.
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 22 cents to $80.10/cwt.
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up $2.57 to $85.67/cwt.
Stewart-Peterson says trade instability with China has harmed the market, as shown by sharply lower prices earlier Tuesday before a price rebound later today. Markets are pricing in a surge of exports to China at some point in 2019 if tariffs come down. A close eye will be kept on trade negotiations Wednesday and Thursday.
June lean hogs closed down 50 cents at $89.25 per hundredweight, according to The Hightower Report. That price was $2.10 off the contract high and $3.87 higher than the contract low.
Downs and ups for hogs
Concerns over a trade deal with China pushed hog prices sharply lower early today before rebounding later in the session. The Hightower Report says despite the early pressure, closing prices were nearly 310 points higher from the lows. The market reached its lowest level since March 18.
Beef values were higher this morning, but Stewart-Peterson reports most of today’s buying action appears to be technical in nature. A drier forecast may also be positive for beef demand as Americans eagerly away the start of grilling season.
Corn, soybeans grapple with China trade uncertainty
Despite increasing pessimism over a U.S.-China trade deal, soybean prices inched higher today. ADM Ag Market View says there are also concerns about the USDA’s 2019-20 world soybean ending stocks. The trade estimates U.S. carryover stocks to be near 910 million bushels vs. 895 in the previous year.
Slow corn planting progress was reported this morning, with just 23% of the crop planted as of Sunday. Barchart says that’s an increase of just 8 % from last week, 13% behind a year ago. Wet weather remains in the forecast.
Corn prices closed up today despite less than positive news regarding trade talks with China. The U.S. could increase tariffs on Chinese goods to 25% Friday, up from 10%. The Hightower Report says the commodity market held together for the most part, despite a steep dip in the Dow.
December corn prices traded as high as $3.84 today, according to Stewart-Peterson. The next point of resistance will be the 20-day moving average of $3.84¾. Funds sold an estimated 23,000 contracts of corn Monday and are thought to be short 305,000.
Planting progress remains slow, reports Barchart. Six percent of soybean acres were planted as of Sunday, with no progress in Minnesota and South Dakota. This compares to 14% a year ago. Nebraska is ahead of normal at 14%.
Stewart-Peterson futures found some short-covering bounce today after moving deeper into oversold territory yesterday. July beans were up to nearly $8.35 early this afternoon, with new crop November beans at around $8.56 after trading as high as $8.58.
Wheat futures were higher. The USDA estimates the winter wheat crop at 64 % good to excellent, up from 34 % a year ago. ADM Ag Market View reports a forecast of cool weather and below-average rainfall could boost planting progress.
Top-producing wheat states continue to make slow progress, according to The Hightower Report. North Dakota has 13% of the crop in, compared to the 5-year average of 37%. Minnesota has 7% of the crop planted, with Montana at 32% and South Dakota at 19%.