[Mon]: “Pork values in the U.S. are already up to the highest level since July 5 as the Spring/Summer seasonal advance is coming earlier than normal,” The Hightower Report said. They noted that the market appears to have bullish supply fundamentals, “to see a resumption of the uptrend”… [Fri]: National carcass base up $1.81… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base had no comparison… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $1.28… "Buyers turned active on the break with strong pork cut-out values and record China buying in the weekly export sales report yesterday," The Hightower Report said…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Mon 4/15/2019 8:43 AM
Lean hogs - “Though we don’t think the top is in the market, we don’t recommend buying right here right now,” Blue Line Futures said. “If you want to buy options to have exposure with limited risk, know that you are paying a lot more in premium. (…) We believe there are better risk/reward scenarios in other markets.”
“Pork values in the U.S. are already up to the highest level since July 5 as the Spring/Summer seasonal advance is coming earlier than normal,” The Hightower Report said. They noted that the market appears to have bullish supply fundamentals, “to see a resumption of the uptrend.”
Less pork may support beef
China’s pig herd was down 18.8% from last March due to the ramifications of African swine fever. “China’s sow herd dropped 21% in March from the same period a year earlier,” Allendale said.
The ideas of a tightening global supply in pork “will support beef prices,” The Hightower Report said. A firm tone to the cash markets also is helping support the recent rally in cattle. In addition, “there is also a sense that China may be a more active importer of beef this year, and that the U.S. might receive a better share if beef is included in the China/U.S. trade deal,” they said.
Fri 4/12/2019 4:53 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base up $1.81 to $76.37/cwt.
National live fell $1.09 to $57.08
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base had no comparison and sits at $76.98
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $1.28 at $85.71/cwt.
The steadiness in hogs today, "came as a little bit of a surprise," Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. She said the futures are taking a "breather" with some profit taking possibly sliding into the market.
"Hog markets have been volatile this week," Stewart-Peterson said. "The price action and positive closes today were good to see."
Hogs see active afternoon
Hogs moved sharply lower today, but switched to choppier behavior after the midday break. "Buyers turned active on the break with strong pork cut-out values and record China buying in the weekly export sales report yesterday," The Hightower Report said.
This week's live stock slaughter came in at 589,000 head for cattle, up 5,000 from last week but down 5,000 from the same week last year. In hogs, the slaughter finished at an estimated 2.290 mln head, down 26,000 from last week, but still up slightly from the same stretch last year.
China numbers boost optimism
Trade is feeling "mildly optimistic" after this morning's Chinese trade figures showed a jump in exports. However, the U.S.'s poor weekly export sales number still allowed the market to be sluggish, The Hightower Report said.
"There are reports that the European Union has drafted a list retaliatory tariffs to the U.S. in response to President Trump’s tariff threats earlier this week," Michaela White of CHS Hedging said.
"Pressure is (...) coming from softening export offers out of South America with both Brazil and Argentina FOB corn offers below U.S. Gulf offers," The Hightower Report said. The latest USDA estimate has Argentinian corn at 47.0 mmt.
With an aggressively short position among the funds, "it is apparent they are not betting on wet weather as a problem, at least not yet," Stewart-Peterson said. "Planting delays are likely one of the variables that the market has overcome due to increased machinery capacity and farmer ability to plant nearly around the clock."
With South American beans hitting the market and U.S. exports being sluggish, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said there's a lid on any chance of a significant rally. With no trade deal on the horizon, it's a "recipe for sagging prices," she said.
A weaker dollar and a firmer stock market helped soybean prices today, Stewart Peterson said. They noted that the weather may push some farmers to plant more soybeans this year, "which could be viewed as a negative," they said.
"Traders are taking notice of potential weather issues ahead," The Hightower Report said. With the late-season winter storm that cruised through the country, spring wheat planting will "continue to struggle," The Hightower Report said.
Wheat was mixed today as export shipments are at a low for the first week of April, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. "we have to wait for the outcome for the tender from Egypt," she said. "That was one thing that we thought would be helpful, but we haven't really heard much."