In this file:

 

·         It’s A Good Time To Have Lots of Pork, Says Iowa State Economist

… Hayes says COFCO probably has people in the U.S. right now arranging additional sales. Because they are government-owned, he believes they can avoid the retaliatory duty of 50%. If not, Hayes says they should have purchased this pork in the EU…

 

·         Measuring China's growing footprint on U.S. pork trade

... The most U.S. pork ever shipped to China in one year was 376,137 tonnes in 2011. But with sales to China already at 142,845 tonnes just over three months into the year, that record is highly breakable considering China's dwindling pork supply...

 

·         Up to 200 million pigs to be culled or die from swine fever in China: Rabobank

… by far the highest such forecast yet and underscoring the gravity of the epidemic in the world’s top pork producer…

 

 

 

It’s A Good Time To Have Lots of Pork, Says Iowa State Economist

 

Jennifer Shike, FarmJournal's Pork

April 11, 2019

 

Pork export sales are up. USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service reports net sales of 90,700 metric tons (MT) of pork for the period of March 29 to April 4, 2019. This is up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior four-week average.

 

Increases were reported for China at 77,000 MT, South Korea at 3,600 MT, Chile at 2,900 MT, Japan at 2,200 MT, and Canada at 1,100 MT. Exports of 27,500 MT were up 1% from the previous week and 3% from the prior four-week average.

 

The primary destinations were Mexico at 7,200 MT, South Korea at 4,900 MT, China at 4,000 MT, Japan at 3,300 MT, and Australia at 1,800 MT.

 

“The huge jump in sales to China appears to confirm rumors that COFCO (a government-owned company) is buying U.S. pork for the national reserve,” says Dermot Hayes, distinguished professor in agribusiness at Iowa State University. “COFCO typically buys split carcasses when the meat is destined for the reserve. China will need huge quantities because it has lost 25% to 35% of its production to African swine fever.”

 

Hayes says COFCO probably has people in the U.S. right now arranging additional sales. Because they are government-owned, he believes they can avoid the retaliatory duty of 50%. If not, Hayes says they should have purchased this pork in the EU.

 

“The impact of these purchases has already been reflected in the futures market,” Hayes says...

 

more

https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/its-good-time-have-lots-pork-says-iowa-state-economist

 

 

Measuring China's growing footprint on U.S. pork trade

 

By Karen Braun, Reuters

via Nasdaq - April 11, 2019

 

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.)

 

FORT COLLINS, Colo., April 11 (Reuters) - China just made a stunningly large purchase of U.S. pork despite hefty trade tariffs, the latest sign that the deadly African swine fever will make a serious dent in Chinese pork supply.

 

China's latest U.S. pork buy certainly suggests that ASF is causing serious problems. The American meat is not cheap for Chinese importers ever since Beijing imposed a 62 percent tariff on imports last year as the trade war escalated.

 

The trade war, and to a lesser extent, production capacity, is a major limiting factor in the United States being able to ramp up pork exports to China amid its shortage. China is not the top customer of U.S. pork, but the United States is a top exporter on the global market, and U.S. producers may be seeing a spike in business in the coming months.

 

On Thursday, data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture revealed that China bought 77,732 tonnes of U.S. pork in the week ended April 4. That is the largest weekly pork sale to China in records back to early 2013 and would require close to 3,900 refrigerated containers to make the journey across the ocean.

 

To put that purchase in perspective, the previous largest weekly U.S. pork sale to China was 31,200 tonnes back in July 2014. In total, there have only been eight weeks in the last six years that sales exceeded 10,000 tonnes, including the most recent (graphic).

 

Through April 4, year-to-date sales of U.S. pork totaled 591,508 tonnes, some 17 percent more than a year ago. Mexico is the largest buyer with 28 percent of the sales and China is No. 2 with 24 percent.

 

On the same date in 2018, Mexico's share of U.S. pork sales was 38 percent and China accounted for just 4 percent.

 

PERSPECTIVE

 

... The most U.S. pork ever shipped to China in one year was 376,137 tonnes in 2011. But with sales to China already at 142,845 tonnes just over three months into the year, that record is highly breakable considering China's dwindling pork supply...

 

more

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/measuring-chinas-growing-footprint-on-us-pork-trade-20190411-01136

 

 

Up to 200 million pigs to be culled or die from swine fever in China: Rabobank

 

Reporting by Dominique Patton; Editing by Jane Merriman and Joseph Radford, Reuters

April 12, 2019

 

BEIJING (Reuters) - Up to 200 million pigs could be culled or die from being infected as African swine fever spreads through China, Rabobank said, by far the highest such forecast yet and underscoring the gravity of the epidemic in the world’s top pork producer.

 

Such a number would mark a huge chunk of the nation’s pig herd, which Rabobank says stood at 360 million animals late last year, and comes as many in the industry say the spread of swine fever there is much worse than authorities have reported.

 

The drop would drag down China’s pork output by 30 percent in 2019 from last year, Rabobank said in a statement late on Thursday, boosting demand for meat imports and sapping appetite for animal feed made from commodities like soybeans.

 

“It’s unprecedented, and there are many dimensions of the situation that are still not fully understood,” Justin Sherrard, Rabobank’s global strategist for animal protein, told Reuters.

 

A total of between 150 million and 200 million pigs will die from being infected with African swine fever or culled in the wake of outbreaks, agricultural industry analysts at the bank said.

 

China, which produces about half the world’s pork, this week said it had culled 1.01 million pigs to control the disease.

 

It has reported 124 outbreaks since August last year, with the virus having reached every province apart from the southern island of Hainan and continuing to spread.

 

The agriculture ministry, which did not respond to a fax requesting comment on Friday, has repeatedly said the situation is under control.

 

China’s pork production is seen at around 38 million tonnes in 2019 versus 54 million tonnes last year, Sherrard told Reuters, citing the company’s latest forecast.

 

That would be the lowest level in at least 20 years, according to National Bureau of Statistics data, with repercussions across the global market for all animal proteins.

 

The decline would be nearly 30 percent larger than annual output in the United States and equivalent to Europe’s yearly pork supply, Rabobank said.

 

The United States Department of Agriculture has forecast a smaller decline in China’s pork output this year, of around 10 percent.

 

NO VACCINE ...

 

more

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-china-swinefever-pork/up-to-200-million-pigs-to-be-culled-or-die-from-swine-fever-in-china-rabobank-idUKKCN1RO0MP