In this file:

 

·         Hog futures rally, up more than 60% year-to-date, as U.S. exports to China surge

China hog herds decimated by deadly African swine fever virus

… “It will take at least three years to rebuild the industry without any risk of reinfecting the herd”…

 

·         Meat Prices Seen Rising as Deadly Virus Wipes Out Chinese Hogs

Rabobank says Chinese pork production may drop about 30%

Prices of all proteins will increase ‘substantially’

 

·         Hog Apocalypse in China Leaves Farmers Fortifying Pigsties

African swine fever to hamper China’s pig industry for 2 years

Outbreaks to cut output by the equivalent of annual EU supply

 

·         China about to change global meat sector

... The world’s largest population is losing its main meat-protein source over a very short period of time. To put it into perspective, that country is losing the equivalent of more than all the hogs raised in North and South America. To prevent unrest, the Chinese authorities will not be letting their meat supply dry up...

 

·         Hog virus pushes China to increase U.S. pork purchases despite trade war

China’s purchases of U.S. pork climbed to the highest in at least six years...

 

·         African swine fever to upend markets

Market observers estimate that it will be five to seven years before China can rebuild its hog herd and restore the traditional import balance

 

·         U.S. livestock: CME lean hogs surge on strong pork sales

… more than 77,000 tonnes sold to China as a fatal hog disease continued to spread in the Asian country…

 

 

 

Meat Prices Seen Rising as Deadly Virus Wipes Out Chinese Hogs

 

    Rabobank says Chinese pork production may drop about 30%

    Prices of all proteins will increase ‘substantially’

 

By Irene Garcia Perez, Bloomberg 

April 11, 2019

 

Meat prices -- whether it’s chicken, beef, seafood or even fake meat -- are likely to rise because of a global shortages caused by a deadly hog virus that’s sweeping across China.

 

That’s according to a new report by Rabobank, which predicted widespread knock-on effects for the agriculture industry globally as African swine fever decimates Chinese hog farms. More than a million hogs have been culled in East Asia since the disease first appeared in August, and the consequences are already reshaping global trade.

 

Chinese pork production may decline about 30 percent in 2019 because of the virus, Rabobank predicted. To put that figure into context, a drop of that size would be roughly the same as Europe’s entire annual pork supply, the bank said.

 

China is the world’s biggest hog producer and pork is the principal source of dietary protein. The most virulent form of the disease can be 100 percent lethal for pigs and wild boars, and there’s no vaccine.

 

Chinese consumers will have to eat less pork and turn to other kinds of meat, like poultry, beef, fish and "alternative proteins," according to Rabobank, a Dutch lender that specializes in agriculture financing. Additionally, meat supplies around the world may be redirected to China to satisfy the country’s deficit in protein, the bank said.

 

"The price of all proteins is set to rise pretty substantially," said Christine McCracken, an analyst at the bank. “It would be our expectation that as China imports more pork, supplies in other countries will get tighter and prices will go up, not just for pork, but for other proteins as well."

 

“It will take at least three years to rebuild the industry without any risk of reinfecting the herd,” she said.

 

There are already signs that Chinese food preferences are changing...

 

more

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-11/meat-prices-seen-rising-as-deadly-virus-wipes-out-chinese-hogs

 

 

Hog futures rally, up more than 60% year-to-date, as U.S. exports to China surge

China hog herds decimated by deadly African swine fever virus

 

By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch 

Apr 11, 2019

 

Lean hog futures rallied Thursday, with a jump in U.S. pork exports to China contributing to a more than 60% year-to-date climb in prices, which are near their highest levels since 2014.

 

U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales numbers for hogs released early Thursday were “massive,” said John Payne, senior broker at Daniels Trading in Chicago. The USDA pegged net U.S. pork sales at 90,700 metric tons for the March 29 to April 4 period, with China buying 77,700 metric tons.     

 

Demand from China is surging as African swine fever, a contagious disease that is nearly 100% fatal for domestic and wild pigs, has decimated that country’s hog herds.

 

This the largest number we have seen in a long while, almost four [times] larger than where they opened the week prior,” he said in emailed comments. “News out of China continues to be supportive for pork prices as it was reported last night through CPI numbers that prices are higher by 5% in the last month.”

 

In Thursday dealings, lean hogs for June delivery LHM9, +0.57% the most-active contract, rose 2.2 cents, or 2.3%, to 98.68 cents a pound in Chicago after trading as high as 99.45 cents. A settlement above the 98.975-cent settlement from April 5 would be the highest since Sept. 18, 2014, based on the most-active contracts, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Prices have climbed by more than 11% month to date and soared by more than 60% for the year so far.

 

“Lean hog prices have been very volatile over the last month or so as [African Swine Fever] decimates hog herds in China and other Asian nations,” Will Rhind, chief executive officer of ETF issuer GraniteShares, told MarketWatch. “The lean hogs futures contract has been limit up or down seven times since March 15, with five of those seven times limit up.”

 

“China is the largest global consumer of pork, producing and consuming about half of all pork in the world,” he said. “As a result of the swine fever epidemic, it has culled a very large number of hogs, depleting its supply and necessitating imports. Lean hog prices have reacted accordingly.”

 

Rhind said he believes the latest weekly pork purchase by China is a record. The purchase comes despite China’s hefty tariffs on imports of the commodity from the U.S...

 

more, including chart  

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hog-futures-rally-up-more-than-60-year-to-date-as-us-exports-to-china-surge-2019-04-11

 

 

Hog Apocalypse in China Leaves Farmers Fortifying Pigsties

 

    African swine fever to hamper China’s pig industry for 2 years

    Outbreaks to cut output by the equivalent of annual EU supply

                                   

Bloomberg News

April 11, 2019  

 

Visitors aren’t welcome at Zhao Baojiang’s pigsty. Those granted access to his fortress-like farm outside Beijing must park a half-mile away, change into shoes he provides, and wear disposable overalls to prevent introducing African swine fever virus.

 

Zhao’s fastidiousness about infection control, combined with a towering brick wall protecting his property, probably helped save his 500-hog herd from the deadly contagion that’s ravaged pig farms across China since August. Empty barns around his village of Xi Fengwu, about 60 kilometers (37 miles) south of the national capital, indicate few of Zhao’s neighbors were as fortunate.

 

The infectious disease has killed tens of thousands of pigs in China, which raises about half the world’s hogs. Worse still, stopping its spread has resulted in the culling of millions more, including breeding sows and piglets. Latest government predictions point to a loss of swine this year equivalent to the European Union’s annual supply. Zhao, 67, doesn’t see affected farms recovering anytime soon.

 

“Not many dare to breed pigs anymore,” Zhao said. “Once your farm is hit with the disease, you’re left penniless -- which was the case for many last year. It’s obvious that there are not many pigs left.”

 

That poses a threat to not only the millions of Chinese whose livelihoods depend on pigs, but also to food inflation in a country with the highest per-capita pork consumption after Vietnam and the EU. Wholesale pork prices have climbed more than 9 percent since late July.

 

Inflationary Effect ...

 

Spreading Further ... 

 

Delayed Recovery ... 

 

more, including links, chart                  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-11/hog-apocalypse-in-china-leaves-farmers-fortifying-pigsties

 

 

China about to change global meat sector

 

By Michael Raine, Opinion, The Western Producer (Canada) 

April 11, 2019

 

I have a great life — and it’s all about food.

 

I get to grow some food, mostly for other folks. I get to write about, and direct editorial traffic around, agriculture and food at one of the best farming publications on the planet. And I get the opportunity to help other farmers grow more food.

 

I have a ringside seat to everything in agriculture, from policy to production. I see news about agriculture when it’s still new. I hear everything from the special to the speculative. And through our team at The Western Producer, I get to play my part in passing the best of it on to you.

 

Something big is coming for agriculture. So, no more chasing the herd around the bushes like the banker was visiting to count the calves — meat is the next big food thing to alter our world.

 

Driven by disease, China is now, right now, losing its hog herd. Even if a vaccine for African swine fever was found tomorrow, nothing is going to stop this from happening. The world’s largest population is losing its main meat-protein source over a very short period of time. To put it into perspective, that country is losing the equivalent of more than all the hogs raised in North and South America. To prevent unrest, the Chinese authorities will not be letting their meat supply dry up or be driven out of financial reach for its citizens, so world prices for livestock are about to do what crops did in 2008, only bigger.

 

The demand for meat in that country isn’t going to vanish, but the supply is...

 

more

https://www.producer.com/2019/04/china-about-to-change-global-meat-sector/

 

 

Hog virus pushes China to increase U.S. pork purchases despite trade war

 

Tom Polansek, Reuters

April 11, 2019

 

CHICAGO, April 11 (Reuters) - China’s purchases of U.S. pork climbed to the highest in at least six years last week, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed on Thursday, as a fatal hog disease continued to spread in the Asian country. The sale of 77,732 tonnes of U.S pork in the week ended April 4 gives hope to U.S. hog farmers and meat companies such as WH Group Ltd’s Smithfield Foods that China’s demand will increase further. U.S. pork sales to China sank last year after Beijing imposed retaliatory duties of 62 percent on shipments in the two countries’ ongoing trade war.

 

The weekly sales were the biggest to China since the U.S. Department of Agriculture records began in 2013.

 

China has reported about 120 outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF) since it was first detected in the country in August 2018. The disease kills almost all pigs infected, though it is not harmful to people. There is no vaccine or cure.

 

The precise number of hogs that have been killed by the disease or culled to prevent its spread is not known.

 

“We all have some big questions about what the exact numbers are,” said Rich Nelson, chief strategist for U.S.-based broker Allendale. “But it’s clear that they are now trying to fill part of this deficit.”

 

The USDA, in a report published this week, forecast that China will increase pork imports from the U.S. and other countries by 41 percent from 2018 to a record high because of African swine fever. Chinese pork production will likely decline 10 percent due to the liquidation of hog herds, according to the agency’s Foreign Agricultural Service...

 

more

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-china-trade-pork/hog-virus-pushes-china-to-increase-us-pork-purchases-despite-trade-war-idUSL1N21T13C

 

 

African swine fever to upend markets

Market observers estimate that it will be five to seven years before China can rebuild its hog herd and restore the traditional import balance

 

By Sean Pratt, The Western Producer (Canada)

April 11, 2019

 

China is expected to import far fewer soybeans in the future as the pork sector declines and purchase much more meat

 

African swine fever will “shake up the basket” of global agricultural trade for years to come, says an industry analyst.

 

Arlan Suderman, chief commodities analyst with INTL FCStone, said his contacts in China tell him hog feeding is down 40 percent.

 

The contacts include INTL FCStone staff on the ground as well as Chinese feed buyer customers.

 

Total hog production in China is around 710 million animals a year, so a 40 percent reduction in feeding indicates 284 million in lost hog production.

 

There isn’t enough hogs in all of North and South America to make up for that shortfall.

 

“It’s just hard to grasp,” he said.

 

“The mind doesn’t want to believe it because it’s just so unfathomable that it could be that bad but that’s what they’re consistently saying.”

 

The disease outbreak is going to turn global agricultural trade on its head for years to come.

 

“It’s going to dramatically change what they trade. Instead of buying a lot of soybeans they’ll be buying a lot of meat,” said Suderman.

 

INTL FCStone estimates it will be five to seven years before China can rebuild its hog herd and restore the balance.

 

“China says it’s under control and it’s time to start restocking and the people we talk to just scoff at that and say it’s as bad as ever,” he said.

 

Suderman’s estimate of the carnage in China is at the high end but there are many other reports suggesting the damage is extensive.

 

The Dim Sums blog said China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs’ (MARA) investigation of the epidemic in seven provinces in February shows big reductions in sow inventories.

 

For instance, it found a 28 percent decline of productive sows in Jilin province and a 26 percent drop in both Henan province and Guangdong province year-on-year.

 

Many believe the government is under-reporting the extent of the damage.

 

Farmers and traders in Jilin province told a television station that swine inventories have been cut in half, according to the Dim Sums blog.

 

And the veterinary bureau in Shandong province reported a 41 percent “landside” decrease in sow numbers between July 2018 and February 2019 despite only two outbreaks of AFS officially reported in that province...

 

more

https://www.producer.com/2019/04/african-swine-fever-to-upend-markets/

 

 

U.S. livestock: CME lean hogs surge on strong pork sales

Cattle futures firm on weather worries

 

By Julie Ingwersen, Reuters

via Grainews (Canada) - April 11, 2019

 

Chicago | Reuters — Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) lean hog futures closed higher on Thursday on strong weekly U.S. pork export sales, traders said, including more than 77,000 tonnes sold to China as a fatal hog disease continued to spread in the Asian country.

 

CME live cattle futures followed hogs up but settled off their session highs.

 

Lean hog futures surged at the open, with the benchmark June contract soaring the daily three-cent limit after the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported export sales of U.S. pork in the week to April 4 at 90,700 tonnes, including 77,700 tonnes to China.

 

“That was the big story. It’s a really big event,” Dennis Smith, a broker with Archer Financial Services, said of the U.S. pork sales.

 

However, the market cooled as traders booked profits and worried about tariffs still in place as the U.S. and China work to resolve their trade war. Beijing imposed tariffs last year on imports of U.S. agricultural goods, including soybeans, grain sorghum and pork, as retribution for U.S. levies.

 

Most-active CME June lean hog futures settled up 1.25 cents on Thursday at 97.7 cents/lb., paring gains after reaching 99.45 cents, a one-week high (all figures US$).

 

“I attribute that to these nagging tariffs on U.S. pork that remain in place,” Smith said. “They (Chinese buyers) can buy all they want, but when are they going to start shipping massive amounts that will really tighten up the pork? They are unlikely to start doing that until these tariffs go away,” Smith said...

 

more

https://www.grainews.ca/daily/u-s-livestock-cme-lean-hogs-surge-on-strong-pork-sales