In this file:
· Hog virus pushes China to increase U.S. pork purchases despite trade war
· African Swine Fever Losses Cause Export Challenges, Opportunities
Hog virus pushes China to increase U.S. pork purchases despite trade war
Tom Polansek, Reuters
April 11, 2019
CHICAGO, April 11 (Reuters) - China’s purchases of U.S. pork climbed to the highest in at least six years last week, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed on Thursday, as a fatal hog disease continued to spread in the Asian country. The sale of 77,732 tonnes of U.S pork in the week ended April 4 gives hope to U.S. hog farmers and meat companies such as WH Group Ltd’s Smithfield Foods that China’s demand will increase further. U.S. pork sales to China sank last year after Beijing imposed retaliatory duties of 62 percent on shipments in the two countries’ ongoing trade war.
The weekly sales were the biggest to China since the U.S. Department of Agriculture records began in 2013.
China has reported about 120 outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF) since it was first detected in the country in August 2018. The disease kills almost all pigs infected, though it is not harmful to people. There is no vaccine or cure.
The precise number of hogs that have been killed by the disease or culled to prevent its spread is not known.
“We all have some big questions about what the exact numbers are,” said Rich Nelson, chief strategist for U.S.-based broker Allendale. “But it’s clear that they are now trying to fill part of this deficit.”
The USDA, in a report published this week, forecast that China will increase pork imports from the U.S. and other countries by 41 percent from 2018 to a record high because of African swine fever. Chinese pork production will likely decline 10 percent due to the liquidation of hog herds, according to the agency’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
“Despite efforts to contain the disease, outbreaks continue to emerge, and evidence mounts...
African Swine Fever Losses Cause Export Challenges, Opportunities
Jennifer Shike, FarmJournal's Pork
April 12, 2019
Production losses from African swine fever (ASF) have eclipsed initial estimates, Rabobank said on Thursday. In 2019, Rabobank expects Chinese pork production losses of 25% to 35%, creating new challenges and opportunities for animal protein exporters.
“African Swine Fever has spread to every province in mainland China and is now affecting an estimated 150-200 million pigs,” said Christine McCracken, RaboResearch animal protein analyst. “The expected 30% loss in pork production is unprecedented. These losses cannot easily be replaced by other proteins like chicken, duck and seafood, nor will larger pork imports be able to fully offset the loss.”
Extreme losses of over 50% are expected in confined areas of China. The disease has also spread to Vietnam, where production losses are projected to exceed 10%. ASF has most recently entered Cambodia and could move further into Southeast Asia, further exacerbating global protein shortfalls.
Rabobank said there’s no question that sizable breeding herd losses will delay the Chinese pork industry’s recovery which could take years. Efforts to rebuild will be further complicated by the risk of recontamination, despite available financial resources.
“The shift in global trade patterns to meet animal protein demand will be highly dynamic,” the report said. “This will create opportunities for those companies with an exportable surplus and access to China and Southeast Asia. It will also create logistical inefficiencies and raise costs through the entire supply chain.”
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