[Fri]: Rabo Bank is estimating that up to 200 million could be culled as a result of African swine fever, Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain reported. “This is one of the higher numbers we’ve seen printed from any respected analyst”… There is fear African swine fever could show up in the U.S., and “that could be a disaster”… [Thurs]: National carcass base down $1.34… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base unavailable… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up 49 cents… USDA estimates Chinese pork production for 2019 at 48.5 million tonnes, down 11.5 percent. Hightower says this is an 11-year low… Pork and cash hog prices are still rallying, says Stewart-Peterson. Yesterday’s price pressure likely correct some overbought technicals. Positive comments related to U.S./China trade talks are also supporting prices. Exports to China could explode if a deal is finalized soon… 

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Fri 4/12/2019 8:54 AM

 

Lean hogs - There was an announcement that China did come in and buy 77,000 tons of U.S. pork. The chart is higher this morning based on that news.

 

Rabo Bank is estimating that up to 200 million could be culled as a result of African swine fever, Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain reported. “This is one of the higher numbers we’ve seen printed from any respected analyst,” Vaclavik said.

 

African swine fever spread concerns continue

 

There is fear African swine fever could show up in the U.S., and “that could be a disaster,” said Joe Vaklavik of Standard Grain.

 

China hog production for all of 2019 looks like it’ll be down by 11.5%, an 11-year low, reported Terry Roggensack of The Hightower Report.

 

Thu 4/11/2019 4:53 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base down $1.34 to $74.82/cwt.

National live up 17 cents to $59.23.

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base unavailable.

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up 49 cents to $84.43/cwt.

 

USDA estimates Chinese pork production for 2019 at 48.5 million tonnes, down 11.5 percent. Hightower says this is an 11-year low. China’s hog inventory was thought to be near 428 million head, down 3 percent from a year ago. USDA expects inventory numbers to drop to 350 million, an 18 percent decrease.

 

Pork and cash hog prices are still rallying, says Stewart-Peterson. Yesterday’s price pressure likely correct some overbought technicals. Positive comments related to U.S./China trade talks are also supporting prices. Exports to China could explode if a deal is finalized soon.

 

Winter storm fueling cattle

 

Concern over a brutal winter storm over much of the northern plains helped fuel higher June cattle prices, says the Hightower Report. Prices closed at the highest since March 25. U.S. beef exports sales came in over five tonnes lower than the four-week average.

 

Huge export sales helped fuel strong hog prices. Stewart-Peterson says news that the U.S. sold 90,700 tons of pork to China last week boosted market optimism. This total is up sharply from the previous week and the four-week average.

 

Bean weakness hurt corn

 

Weak export sales dragged soybean prices even lower today, says ADM Ag Market View. Net exports were well below the estimated of 270,400 metric tons for the current marketing year. There were no sales to China and a purchase of 99,300 tonnes to an unknown buyer was canceled.

 

Weakness in the bean market spilled over into the corn market, says Michaela White with CHS Hedging. Corn export figures were also disappointing, White says. The dollar was stronger today, making corn less competitive to global customers.

 

Corn

 

Estimates for South American corn production continue to fall. CONAB pegged Brazil’s crop at 94 mmt, down 2 mmt from USDA’s estimate, according to ADM Ag Market View. This was also below most pre-report forecasts. July corn was down slightly today.

 

Stewart-Peterson says a spring storm and wet conditions through parts of the cornbelt into May are expected to delay corn planting. Positive comments this week from USDA Sec. Sonny Perdue regarding U.S./China trade talks is also helping fuel optimism in the corn market.

 

Soybeans

 

Soybean futures were soft this morning with May closing under $9 per bushel. Stewart-Peterson says the U.S. and China have agreed on enforcement mechanisms in trade discussions, with both sides establishing enforcement offices to deal with issues. Despite this, export sales continue to slide.

 

Indonesia was the top buyer of beans last week, purchasing 73,700 MT, says Barchart. China’s purchase dropped slightly. Total new crop sales were just under 10,000 MT. Soybean meal sales were estimated at 152,143 MT, with soy oil sales at 33,834 MT.

 

Wheat

 

Wheat markets were higher today. Stewart-Peterson says dry conditions in Europe have been supportive to wheat prices, as has inclement weather in the Midwest. Strategie Grains cut European soft wheat production estimates by 1.3 MT, a figure still 14 percent higher than last year.

 

Net weekly export sales for wheat were close to estimates, says ADM Ag Market View. The total of 273,000 MT for the current marketing year compares to an estimate of 201,400 for the next marketing year.

 

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