[Thurs]: Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain reported that pork export sales were “very, very strong,” with the vast majority going to China. “We’re starting to see some impact here as a result of the Africa swine fever in China”… [Weds]: National carcass base up 47 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up 58 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up 83 cents… Hog prices moved from sharply lower to a sharply higher close, gaining 380 points, says Hightower. “Ideas that the third day down this morning was enough to help correct the over-bought condition and talk that China will soon be importing more U.S. pork…
Farm Commodity NewsletterIowa Farmer Today
Thu 4/11/2019 8:46 AM
Lean hogs - The China pork supply will be extremely tight and imports should be up sharply, according to the Hightower Report. The market continues to anticipate that tariffs will fall for China and maybe Mexico, which could spark a sharp increase in U.S. exports.
Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain reported that pork export sales were “very, very strong,” with the vast majority going to China. “We’re starting to see some impact here as a result of the Africa swine fever in China.”
Increased exports could boost livestock market
There appears to be a growing attitude that there's no need to panic over the weather until after Easter, Steve Bruce of Walsh Trading said. Some are saying that we might react like the hogs did after weeks of news of Chinese disease problems with their hog population.
According to the Hightower Report, hope for increasing exports to China plus ideas that the rally in global pork values will support beef are seen as reasons to rationalize the firm basis.
Reuters reported that the U.S. pork industry canceled its annual convention on Wednesday over concerns that international attendees could bring in an incurable hog disease at a time when American farmers are already suffering from trade wars.
Wed 4/10/2019 4:51 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base up 47 cents to $75.68/cwt.
National live up 15 cents to $58.77.
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up 58 cents to $76.26.
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up 83 cents to $83.94/cwt.
Hog prices were up this morning with choppy trade, with April up 40 cents and June up $1.57. Stewart-Peterson says markets were trading with expanded limits due to yesterday’s limit down close, but trading was still reserved today.
Hog prices moved from sharply lower to a sharply higher close, gaining 380 points, says Hightower. “Ideas that the third day down this morning was enough to help correct the over-bought condition and talk that China will soon be importing more U.S. pork.
More corn means more feed
The potential for more corn acres is bullish for cattle feed prices, says Josh Maples, Extension ag economist with Mississippi State University. “The primary costs associated with a finished steer are the cost of the calf purchases and the cost of the feed,” he says, adding lower feed costs can translate to higher feeder cattle prices.
June and July hog futures both gapped lower this morning, but quickly rallied to close those gaps, says Stewart-Peterson. Trade with Mexico has slowed, but most expect an agreement with Mexico to be announced soon, which should result in larger purchases of U.S. pork.
Planting continues to look delayed with new storms
Old crop corn contracts put in new lows today, but some speculative short covering helped lift prices, says Stewart-Peterson. The threat of winter storms through some of the cornbelt should boost market speculation that a late planting season will result in reduced corn acres.
The soybean market appears to be waiting out an expected agreement with China, says ADM Ag Market View. Sec. Mnuchin said Monday that China has committed to buy a “significant amount” of U.S. soybeans and “they are in the market executing these orders.”
Some support is seen from today’s ethanol production report for last week, says ADM Ag Market View. This is up .30 percent from the previous week, but still down 3.09 percent from a year ago. Corn used last week for ethanol production was estimated at over 103 million bushels.
Ethanol use drew stocks lower last week, with 23.193 million barrels used. This was the largest reduction since October, says Barchart. This comes despite a small increase of 3,000 barrels per day from the previous week’s production.
Nearby bean meal futures were up $1 per ton today, with soy oil down three points. USDA flashed a sale of 133,759 MT for 2018-19 delivery to an unknown destination this morning, says Barchart. The U.S. average cash price range dipped by 50 cents to $8.35 to $8.85.
Hightower says July beans traded firmer today, up to $9.15 or a 3.25 cents increase. Mild support continues from yesterday’s USDA report, which most considered neutral to slightly bullish with a lower than expected ending stocks total.
A spring storm will likely put a halt to spring wheat planting progress, with some snow forecasts in the two feet range in Nebraska, Minnesota and South Dakota, says Hightower. Algeria is tendering for wheat today, along with Bangladesh.
Chicago July wheat prices dropped to $4.60 early today, the lowest level in more than two weeks, says ADM Ag Market View. Kansas City wheat was trading in the $4.34 range, down nearly a penny.